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Probability of a MegaMillions Rollover.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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Posted: April 29, 2009, 10:34 pm - IP Logged

The MegaMillions jackpot is now $220M annuity and $143.5M cash.

The coming draw will be a 14th draw.

The average number of sales for a 14th draw are 67.0 million tickets.

If the MM sales are average then the randomized probability for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

k, number of winnersp(m,k)
074.60%
121.86%
23.20%
30.31%
40.02%

The first column is the number of winners, the second is the probability that this will be the number of winners.

Thus the largest single probability is that there will be another rollover.