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Conditional choices??

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 8 years ago by pick4hawk.

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pick4hawk's avatar - Trek HAND3.gif

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August 9, 2005
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Posted: May 3, 2009, 12:01 am - IP Logged

For a while now I have trying to see how Monte Carlo and Statistics Led to good choices to pick numbers.

Along the way I found the following infomation:

http://sites.google.com/site/newconceptssite/how-to-maximize-the-probability---forecasting-of-events-in-gambling-3

http://sites.google.com/site/newconceptssite/Home/how-to-pick-pick-the-winning-numbers

http://www.goarticles.com/cgi-bin/showa.cgi?C=1268891

I was given permission to post these links---by todd

Are these methods wise to use some how--for all games?

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    June 23, 2006
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    Posted: May 3, 2009, 8:08 am - IP Logged

    pick4hawk

    interesting. can't say that i understand most of it. a quick read of anything often raises more questions than provides answers.  hope you or someone follows up and explores this idea.  as for your question "are these methods wise..." I wouldnot put money on it without a lot of testing. It may prove as useless as many other methods or it may be useful. untill a few people test it we won't know. did give me something to think about and for that thank you.

    p8

      pick4hawk's avatar - Trek HAND3.gif

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      Posted: May 3, 2009, 10:56 am - IP Logged

      Thank you. I started this thread because I wanted people to discuss how Monte carlo might be used to choose numbers to play. I will add more as I can. Hawk.

        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
        The Quantum Master
        West Concord, MN
        United States
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        Posted: May 3, 2009, 10:57 am - IP Logged

        Here's a Wikipedia reference - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_sampling

        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
        Use at your own risk.

        Order is a Subset of Chaos
        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
        Wisdom is Not Censored
        Douglas Paul Smallish
        Jehocifer

          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
          The Quantum Master
          West Concord, MN
          United States
          Member #21
          December 7, 2001
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          Posted: May 3, 2009, 11:17 am - IP Logged

          An expaned reference - http://www.powerset.com/explore/go/monte-carlo-method

          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
          Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
          Use at your own risk.

          Order is a Subset of Chaos
          Knowledge is Beyond Belief
          Wisdom is Not Censored
          Douglas Paul Smallish
          Jehocifer

            edge's avatar - waveform

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            December 26, 2008
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            Posted: May 3, 2009, 12:33 pm - IP Logged

            For a while now I have trying to see how Monte Carlo and Statistics Led to good choices to pick numbers.

            Along the way I found the following infomation:

            http://sites.google.com/site/newconceptssite/how-to-maximize-the-probability---forecasting-of-events-in-gambling-3

            http://sites.google.com/site/newconceptssite/Home/how-to-pick-pick-the-winning-numbers

            http://www.goarticles.com/cgi-bin/showa.cgi?C=1268891

            I was given permission to post these links---by todd

            Are these methods wise to use some how--for all games?

            oook. these are examples of "over-complex" analysis of having 2 random systems being equated by probabilistic sampling and using this sampling to arrive with a forecast.

            author argues with the following main assumption:

            two random system can exhibit coorelation(s) (what author also calls conditional probablity), this could be more directly called Markov process (but lets not get more complex:)

            author then continues to outline very elaborate way to calculate these coorelations to form basis for his predictions (one of the methods he is using is Monte Carlo sampling, which is fine, and it applies, Monte Carlo is ineed use to find coorelations between data sets where other methods are too complex (algorithmically) and/or take very long time to run (longer than the age of Universe ie:)

            in 6 bullets then:

            1. read some lottery winning combination

            2. setup second random sequence

            3. find coorelations between 1 and 2

            4. repeat 2 and 3 using Monte Carlo method and/or linear regression 

            5. repeat 1 and 4 adding more past lottery data and perfect coorelation

            6. using resluts from 1 thru 5, draw linear  (and not exponential hopefully :) line from past-present-future and use future line points for lottery predictions

            number 6 is of course an Achilles’ heel (a fatal weakness:) of the argument and it deals directly with the coorelation curve between two random samples, if its linear we are set and we win otherwise
            we  will be only as good as the last coorelation being made:)

            save yourself time from programming steps above, unless you are creating an application to let say coorelate bird-migration and climate change (coorelation can be identified as linear is my guess, with occasional catastrophic events such as random increase in CO2 levels in the upper atmosphere) in which case your linear slope might temporarily change to lottery like zig-zag behaviour

            hope that helps:)

            ab actu ad posse valet illatio - from the past one can infer the future

              Raven62's avatar - binary
              New Jersey
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              Posted: May 3, 2009, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

              Computer simulation has to do with using computer models to imitate real life or make predictions. When you create a model with a spreadsheet like Excel, you have a certain number of input parameters and a few equations that use those inputs to give you a set of outputs (or response variables). This type of model is usually deterministic, meaning that you get the same results no matter how many times you re-calculate.

              Monte Carlo simulation is a method for iteratively evaluating a deterministic model using sets of random numbers as inputs. This method is often used when the model is complex, nonlinear, or involves more than just a couple uncertain parameters. A simulation can typically involve over 10,000 evaluations of the model, a task which in the past was only practical using super computers.

              By using random inputs, you are essentially turning the deterministic model into a stochastic model.

              A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                pick4hawk's avatar - Trek HAND3.gif

                United States
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                Posted: May 4, 2009, 12:22 am - IP Logged

                For a while now I have trying to see how Monte Carlo and Statistics Led to good choices to pick numbers.

                Along the way I found the following infomation:

                http://sites.google.com/site/newconceptssite/how-to-maximize-the-probability---forecasting-of-events-in-gambling-3

                http://sites.google.com/site/newconceptssite/Home/how-to-pick-pick-the-winning-numbers

                http://www.goarticles.com/cgi-bin/showa.cgi?C=1268891

                I was given permission to post these links---by todd

                Are these methods wise to use some how--for all games?

                The author "SHAMRAO" of the above information reminds me alot of another member here named--Grumple Dumple.

                Because of the above author SHAMRAO mentions the WORD "Phenomena"

                Saying "This phenomena of Pyramiodon offers an incredibly real and practical applications theory."

                thats:

                http://www.lotterypost.com/search/member?q=Grumple+Dumple&t=all

                OR
                http://www.lotterypost.com/member/50274

                  pick4hawk's avatar - Trek HAND3.gif

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                  Posted: May 4, 2009, 12:26 am - IP Logged

                  Thank you to raven62 and jadelottery for there input.

                  I would still like to see direct application of various methods. I hope to see some or create one soon.

                    pick4hawk's avatar - Trek HAND3.gif

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                    Posted: May 5, 2009, 11:15 am - IP Logged

                    One thing still eludes me about understanding how monte carlo is used for the forcasting of numbers to play and win. That is this statment I read : "For Monte Carlo one needs only to mirror the velocity spectrum in probability distribution."

                    How can anyone do this with the the lottery like mega or otherwise???

                      pick4hawk's avatar - Trek HAND3.gif

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                      Posted: May 11, 2009, 11:48 am - IP Logged

                      For a long time now I 've noticed that the mega millions machine turns in different directions at the same time. This reminds me of generators that produce friction.

                      hum I wonder if static should be close to zero to have no bias?

                      I will have more pdf's to come .

                      hawk