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How do I compute the odds of winning a lottery twice?

Topic closed. 4 replies. Last post 7 years ago by Coin Toss.

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San Diego, CA
United States
Member #58386
February 12, 2008
287 Posts
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Posted: August 21, 2009, 11:27 am - IP Logged

Jackpot odds of 1 in 41,000,000 for one jackpot and odds of 1 in 14,000,000 for the other.

 

Play both 5 times each drawing.

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    NY
    United States
    Member #23835
    October 16, 2005
    3474 Posts
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    Posted: August 21, 2009, 1:23 pm - IP Logged

    How much effort do you want to put into it? Multiply the odds together, like any other fraction. 1/4 times 1/4 is 1/16. 1/41,000,000 * 1/14,000,000 is 1 in 574,000,000,000,000.

    How  long will you continue to play? Each chance increases your odds of winning, whether it's all for the same drawing or spread over many drawings.  If the overall odds are 1 in 41 million, your odds with 5 chances are 5 in 41 million, or 1 in 8.2 million. For the other, it's 5 in 14 million or 1 in  2.8 million. That makes the odds of winning both in any given week 1 in (8.2  million * 2.8 million), or 1 in 22.96 million million, or 1 in 23 quadrillion. As a rough figure, playing for the next million weeks will reduce those odds all the way down to about 1 in 23 billion.

    Of course the simple answer is that it ain't ever going to happen to any specific person. Factor in millions of people playing dozens of games, and it eventually becomes as certain as somebody winning PB despite odds of 1 in 195 million. 100 previous winners playing 1 chance each is the same as 1 winner playing 100 chances. Multiply that by 100 weeks of playing, and it becomes 10,000 chances. Factor in pools and there are already hundreds of people who have won PB, and hundreds who have won MM. Factor in previous winners playing multiple chances for each game. We've already seen people have multiple wins in smaller games. We should expect it to take (a lot) longer, but if th egames keep running sooner or later somebody will win both PB and MM or win one of them twice.

      Rakster's avatar - praying hands.jpg
      Saskatchewan
      Canada
      Member #19992
      August 9, 2005
      2867 Posts
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      Posted: August 21, 2009, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

      How much effort do you want to put into it? Multiply the odds together, like any other fraction. 1/4 times 1/4 is 1/16. 1/41,000,000 * 1/14,000,000 is 1 in 574,000,000,000,000.

      How  long will you continue to play? Each chance increases your odds of winning, whether it's all for the same drawing or spread over many drawings.  If the overall odds are 1 in 41 million, your odds with 5 chances are 5 in 41 million, or 1 in 8.2 million. For the other, it's 5 in 14 million or 1 in  2.8 million. That makes the odds of winning both in any given week 1 in (8.2  million * 2.8 million), or 1 in 22.96 million million, or 1 in 23 quadrillion. As a rough figure, playing for the next million weeks will reduce those odds all the way down to about 1 in 23 billion.

      Of course the simple answer is that it ain't ever going to happen to any specific person. Factor in millions of people playing dozens of games, and it eventually becomes as certain as somebody winning PB despite odds of 1 in 195 million. 100 previous winners playing 1 chance each is the same as 1 winner playing 100 chances. Multiply that by 100 weeks of playing, and it becomes 10,000 chances. Factor in pools and there are already hundreds of people who have won PB, and hundreds who have won MM. Factor in previous winners playing multiple chances for each game. We've already seen people have multiple wins in smaller games. We should expect it to take (a lot) longer, but if th egames keep running sooner or later somebody will win both PB and MM or win one of them twice.

      I beg to differ about "Of course the simple answer is that it ain't ever going to happen to any specific person." as a doctor in British Columbia hit the 6/49 jackpot twice within 2 or 3 years. Once was for 2.5 million the second times 5 or 7 million. And being a doctor, he would have needed that money too...hahaha NOT!

      We are all Lucky... just some of us don't realize it!

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        Milwaukee, WI
        United States
        Member #3131
        December 27, 2003
        665 Posts
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        Posted: August 26, 2009, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

        I just want to win it once!

        Well.. More than my $10K and $1,590.....

        MarkP

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
          United States
          Member #30470
          January 17, 2006
          10353 Posts
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          Posted: August 28, 2009, 9:12 pm - IP Logged

          According to last Wednesday's The Lottery Changed My Life, this question was asked in one of the "info blurbs" and their answer was the odds against winning the lottery twice are 419,000,000 to one.

          They weren't specific about which lottery or anything, they just said the lottery.

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.