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Mega Millions jackpots

Topic closed. 9 replies. Last post 7 years ago by Todd.

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Cha$e-IL's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
New Member
Chicago
United States
Member #58821
February 27, 2008
16 Posts
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Posted: October 14, 2009, 4:17 pm - IP Logged

Just a list of  MM jackpot history right off the MM website.  It seems to me that there seems to be some truth to size of population and jackpots.  The bigger the ticket playing population the more winners that state is going to have. Yes we all a have equal chance at winning just buying a ticket, but think of it as lottery pools would you rather be in the 24 & 28 millions tickets sold in CA and NY for the 333 MM jackpot of 8/28/09 or the 5 & 3 millons tickets sold in MD & WA for that same drawing (info from ).  It's just good business to tell everyone its fair and we all have the same chance, and with the laws of probability the smaller populated states will win eventually, but as we all know... what happens the most... will most likely happen again.  I live in IL but I travel for business to IN(on the OH border) and GA and I play MM in those states since out of 8yrs we've had 5 jp's...

 

State       JACKPOTS            YEAR JOINED MM                LAST JACKPOT/$

CA               10                                 '05                                      8/09/168 MIL.

GA               10                                 '02                                      9/09/12 MIL 

IL                 5                                  '02                                       5/08/85 MIL

MD               7                                  '02                                      9/08/24 MIL

MA               1                                   '02                                      9/04/294 MIL

MI                9                                   '02                                      10/08/42 MIL

NJ               14                                   '02                                      3/09/216 MIL

NY               18                                  '02                                       8/09/168 MIL

OH               14                                  '02                                      5/09/75 MIL

TX                7                                    '03                                      1/08/33 MIL

VA                6                                    '02                                      5/09/75 MIL

WA               2                                    '02                                      10/06/55 MIL

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    DFW, Texas
    United States
    Member #78628
    August 18, 2009
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    Posted: October 14, 2009, 6:07 pm - IP Logged

    I'm no statistician, but I believe I can offer some insight.

    It's true that any line of numbers has an equal chance of winning, and it's also true that where more tickets are sold more jackpots will (over time) be won.

    The problem with the assumption that it's better to play in a state that's had more wins is that it isn't a pool.  The jackpots are won by individual ticketholders, not by states.  If you buy a ticket in Maryland, and the winning ticket is sold in Maryland, it's more likely that the winning ticket will be yours.  If you buy a ticket in California, and the winning ticket is sold in California, it's less likely that the winning ticket will be yours.  You can make it more likely that you bought a ticket in the state in which the winner was sold, but that makes it no more likely that it will be your ticket.  You get nothing for having bought a ticket in the same state.

    When the odds favor a particular state, because more tickets were sold there, then the odds are more against each player in that state if the winning ticket was sold there, for the same reason, because more tickets were sold there.  Predictions and luck aside, the odds based on geography wash out to favor players with the most lines of different numbers, and to favor every set of numbers equally, regardless of geography.

    If your goal is to buy a ticket in the state where the winner was sold, you can make that more likely, or even a certainty if you play in all 12 states, but you get no benefit from that.  Any set of numbers you can play in California you can also play in Maryland.

      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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      April 28, 2009
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      Posted: October 14, 2009, 6:08 pm - IP Logged

      I wouldn't consider myself any less likely to win the big jackpot if I lived in WA than if I lived in NY.

      Whatever state you're in you're still part of the whole. It's only natural that percentages sold dictate percentage of winners geographically.

      There can always be an anomaly here or there like the small town of Fond du Lac Wisconsin that wins more than you would expect but that will average out over time.


                                                   
                           
                                               

       

       

       

       

                                                                                                         

      "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                  --Edmund Burke

       

       

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19831 Posts
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        Posted: October 14, 2009, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

        It's true lottery players in more populated areas win more often then those is less populated areas.  Ohio gets its share or MegaMillions winners and most live in or near the larger cities like Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland.  Heck, even Ohioans driving out of state to buy PowerBall tickets that win big are usually from those areas, the Ohioans I remember winning PB jackpots with tickets bought in Indiana were from Dayton and Columbus.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

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          Illinois
          United States
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          September 25, 2009
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          Posted: October 14, 2009, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

          It's true lottery players in more populated areas win more often then those is less populated areas.  Ohio gets its share or MegaMillions winners and most live in or near the larger cities like Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland.  Heck, even Ohioans driving out of state to buy PowerBall tickets that win big are usually from those areas, the Ohioans I remember winning PB jackpots with tickets bought in Indiana were from Dayton and Columbus.

          OH and IL joined in same year.  how come OH has 3 times more jackpot winners than IL?

            Cha$e-IL's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
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            Posted: October 14, 2009, 9:22 pm - IP Logged

            Based on the info from lotto report OH population is smaller than IL by a few hundred thousand, but they sell more tickets than IL on average.  Is looks like simple business... the states that sell the most are rewared with Jp's...I'm not saying that its fixed or anything like that...its just marketing if you market to sell, your efforts will result in more players playing in your state thus giving your state more chances to win. The more your state wins the less marketing you have to do. The combined population of all MM states 159,783,114 the odds 1 in 175,000,000 if everyone played one ticket there still would be 15,000,000 or so tickets left.  With all the lottery pools and people buying more than one ticket I'm sure that number is much lower than that...But you gotta love it...Business at its best.

              diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
              Dallas, TX
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              April 12, 2008
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              Posted: October 14, 2009, 9:28 pm - IP Logged

              Don't waste time looking into this, it will not help with the winning. Interesting facts nonetheless.

                barbos's avatar - gold bar-and-cash1.jpg
                California
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                October 17, 2005
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                Posted: October 15, 2009, 5:03 am - IP Logged

                   Ohio population: 11,485,910    jackpots:14

                   Texas population:24,326,974  jackpots:7

                  in about same period of time... hmm  I don't want to live in Texas.

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                  Columbia City, Indiana
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                  December 9, 2003
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                  Posted: October 15, 2009, 6:11 am - IP Logged

                       Cha$e-IL said:

                       "I live in IL but I travel for business to IN (on the OH border) and GA and I play MM in those states since out of 8 yrs we've had 5 jp's ..."

                       Not to pick nits, but if you've been playing MegaMillions in Indiana, that could help to explain why you haven't won yet.

                  Come, Pinky; we must prepare for tomorrow night...

                  Jim

                    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                    Chief Bottle Washer
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                    Posted: October 15, 2009, 7:48 am - IP Logged

                    <Moved to Jackpot Games forum>

                    Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.