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Is PB & MM truly random...

Topic closed. 5 replies. Last post 7 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Cha$e-IL's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
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Chicago
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February 27, 2008
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Posted: October 21, 2009, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

just some info I found I thought I would share with my lp family members...since this is always a subject...

The definition of the word random is, 'a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.' A great definition except for the fact that it can never be realized in the real world! There's a good reason for that. Random is a theoretical concept bandied about in the mathematical ivory towers of academia that is being passed off as if it actually existed in reality. It is a charlatan. The word 'Random' is an ideal masquerading as reality.


If this definition could actually be implemented in the real world then:
* If you play Blackjack, it would be impossible for you to improve your chances of winning by card counting.
* If you play Poker, it would be impossible for you to decide how much to bet.
* If you play the Stock Market, it would be impossible for you to make any money.
It is pretty obvious that these conjectures are false.

You see, the word 'Random' doesn't fit very well in the real world because it is a theoretical mathematical tool. It cannot be realized or achieved in any game, on Earth, in our Solar System, in our Galaxy nor the Universe because it is only at home in the theoretical world where it was born.

This should be intuitively obvious. How can anyone claim to be able to randomly select numbers from a finite list? They can't because, inevitably, shortly after the process begins, lottery patterns and trends begin to emerge. It can be said that after millions and millions of drawings, the occurrences of all lottery numbers will asymptotically approach the same number of hits but, in the short run, better known as our lifetime, lottery patterns and trends abound.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    March 24, 2001
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    Posted: October 21, 2009, 9:04 pm - IP Logged

     Even if lotteries aren't totally random, the odds of winning their jackpots make it seem like they are.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
      Dallas, TX
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      April 12, 2008
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      Posted: October 21, 2009, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

      The begining and the end to all things existed. The between are measurements of its existence.

      The movement by 1 between the start and end of something are pushed by a force. In lottery it's pushed by digital output, or machanical wheel with gravity and velocity on the balls. It is a random event inside the selections of those balls, if it is done non-digitally.

      All numbers are part of math, an element. When they come together in a string of 3 - 6 numbers per draw, a pattern emerges like you said. The start and the end is the ruler to the numerical order. Predictions are best made within the advantage zone.

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        October 16, 2005
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        Posted: October 22, 2009, 1:40 am - IP Logged

        just some info I found I thought I would share with my lp family members...since this is always a subject...

        The definition of the word random is, 'a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.' A great definition except for the fact that it can never be realized in the real world! There's a good reason for that. Random is a theoretical concept bandied about in the mathematical ivory towers of academia that is being passed off as if it actually existed in reality. It is a charlatan. The word 'Random' is an ideal masquerading as reality.


        If this definition could actually be implemented in the real world then:
        * If you play Blackjack, it would be impossible for you to improve your chances of winning by card counting.
        * If you play Poker, it would be impossible for you to decide how much to bet.
        * If you play the Stock Market, it would be impossible for you to make any money.
        It is pretty obvious that these conjectures are false.

        You see, the word 'Random' doesn't fit very well in the real world because it is a theoretical mathematical tool. It cannot be realized or achieved in any game, on Earth, in our Solar System, in our Galaxy nor the Universe because it is only at home in the theoretical world where it was born.

        This should be intuitively obvious. How can anyone claim to be able to randomly select numbers from a finite list? They can't because, inevitably, shortly after the process begins, lottery patterns and trends begin to emerge. It can be said that after millions and millions of drawings, the occurrences of all lottery numbers will asymptotically approach the same number of hits but, in the short run, better known as our lifetime, lottery patterns and trends abound.

        "It is pretty obvious that these conjectures are false."

        All of those things are perfectly possible when the results are the product of true randomness. I'm not sure exactly what it is, but you definitely don't understand something. Since you apparently know that card counting works I'll assume you're misundertsanding what random really means. Shuffling a deck of cards or mixing and selecting lottery balls may not be absolutely, perfectly random, but it is random none the less. Some events may be more or less likely than others, but the difference in probability is exceedingly small.

        "after millions and millions of drawings, the occurrences of all lotterynumbers will asymptotically approach the same number of hits but, inthe short run, better known as our lifetime, lottery patterns andtrends abound."

        If you believe that after enough drawings each number would have been drawn about the same number of times, you're describing a system where each number really does have (very nearly) the same probability of being drawn. In the short term, random doesn't mean that each number will be drawn the same number of times. Some numbers being drawn more or less often is expected, and it is those variations that cause whatever patterns you see (or imagine). Random selection can result in patterns (3 heads followed by 3 tails could be a simple example that would be expected if you flip a coin 64 times), but those patterns reflect only what has happened, and offer no indication of what will happen except in very general terms. Because any patterns that actually exist are simply a probabilistic result of random selection there are no actual trends; that's just a faulty interpretation of whatever patterns you see.

          four4me's avatar - gate1
          MD
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          June 18, 2003
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          Posted: October 22, 2009, 2:02 am - IP Logged

          Mega millions and powerball haven't had millions of drawings and they never will.

          Mega Millions Statistics

           Based on 452 drawings since Friday, June 24, 2005

           

          Powerball Statistics

           Based on 83 drawings since Wednesday, January 07, 2009
           The Powerball number matrix was last changed on 1/7/2009

          Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                         I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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            Posted: October 25, 2009, 4:30 am - IP Logged

            I don't concern myself too much with the dynamics of randomness or it's existence as it pertains to PB or MM.

            My system is the same one used by most of the multi-millionaires out there who have won the big jackpots - dumb luck.

            I understand the search and the work put into finding a system or formula for predicting the numbers and I realize that it's a fun hobby and a passion for some people. I think that's a good thing and I hope somebody cracks the "code" at some point and wins big. But the truth is, as it stands now, nothing has produced more winners than dumb luck.

            I use numbers predicted here occasionally in an effort to shake things up or change my luck so to speak (and I've won) so I'm glad that people are doing it but I always consider dumb luck an overriding factor in any wins. If true randomness isn't achievable in one's lifetime, we're left to prognosticating patterns or dumb luck. I'm too mathematically challenged (and lazy) for prognosticating so I'm perfectly happy within the system that produces the most winners anyway - dumb luck.

            Good (dumb) luck to everybody!


                                                         
                                 
                                                     

             

             

             

             

                                                                                                               

            "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                        --Edmund Burke