|Posted: November 2, 2009, 10:19 pm - IP Logged|
The reddest flag is when someone posts like 50 BOX numbers per drawing and then say it wins every other day. Or it looks like a few numbers in a pattern but when you figure all the combinations is quite a few! I rarely if ever see anyone show a backtest of their system, and when they do it's (see #1) 50 BOX numbers per drawing. The key is, less is more. If your system puts out one or a few # and hits reasonably often is better than 50 BOX that hit every other drawing. An honest backtest will show the ratio of #'s played (cost) vs. wins (return).
The takeout ratio on most Pick-3 games is 50 percent! So your system in order to make profit (or else why bother) has to be over 200% winning vs. Quick Pick! It's even worse on Pick-4 STR because it's the 50% takeout + the tax! There your system needs to be 300%!!!
On Jackpot games the ratio and tax are similar or worse, but you only have to win one time to change your life, so even a slight edge is good to have.