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Playing the Statistics

Topic closed. 1 reply. Last post 7 years ago by Coin Toss.

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Georgia
United States
Member #79361
August 30, 2009
93 Posts
Offline
 Posted: November 1, 2009, 4:23 pm - IP Logged

Running some numbers through the database on GA F5 gives some interesting stats.

Got to play the percentages, just like baseball.   .333 batting average means that one out of

3 at bats gets a hit.  So if he is 0 for 2 he is probably going to get a hit at the next at bat.

But if the doesn't, he will be at 0 for 3 then 2 for 6 is expected.

The same with right handed pitchers vs right and left handed batters.

In GA F5, there are 56 combinations of 0s, 10s, 20s, 30s.

Numbers from 1-9, 10-19,20-29,30-39

For example

The top 4 combinations are from even distribution of the

0s, 10s, 20s, 30s and another.  They total up to 26% of all draws.

And the other 52 combinations add up to the other 75% of draws.

So an even distribution would have a 25% chance and

something weird or a result missing one or 2 sets of tens would yield the other 75%.

Here is a sampling.

combinationCountOfcombination
01223379
01123351
00123314
01233281
01122190
11223166
00112165
00122162
12233154
01133144
00233137
02233136
00113132
01222126

There has not been a draw of all 30s.

This is a filter that I am using to figure the possibilites.

I have another query that lists the draw numbers individually, the draw dates and the number of

days prior to that date that it hit.

Then another query that tells me where each number is currently at.

For example, 28 has been going cold to warm.

drawnumberDraw DateDayssince
2807/10/20091
2807/13/20093
2807/15/20092
2807/20/20095
2807/24/20094
2808/03/200910
2808/17/200914
2809/07/200921
2809/10/20093
2809/21/200911
2809/26/20095
2810/02/20096
2810/19/200917
2810/27/20098

I try to predict at along those lines.

If something is getting cold, then it does not get really cold

as it hasn't before so its time is coming up.

Last night, it gave me 16 that I designated to play yesterday.

I only had the money to play one line.

Of the numbers that were drawn, 4 were on my list of 16.

The other was the repeat of the prior day which I didn't choose.

It's a start to try to narrow things down.

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10392 Posts
Offline
 Posted: November 1, 2009, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

bomatt

"333 batting average 3 at bats gets a hit.  So if he is 0 for 2 he is probably going to get a hit at the next at bat."

Things just aren't that consistent.

What more likely happens is the .333 hitter goes 0 for 8 in two games and then 6 for 10 in the next two games. Over the long run he's hitting .333, but it definiyly doesn't happen every game.

Assuming a .333 hitter that is 0 for 2 will get a hit the next time up is about the same as standing at a dice table and waiting for 35 rolls without a 12 and then betting on it the next roll. Nope. Might be 144 rolls without a 12 and then 4 in a row.

Also, you can't assume the batter is going to continue to be a .333 hitter.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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