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Choosing the 6th Pic for Uncanny WINPrev TopicNext Topic
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Hi everybody,
As promised an out of the box straighforward racing selection that doesn't promise the holy grail or magic but it's quick, simple, yielding oftentimes uncanny profitable results. No charge, no risk and very easy to back test with PP's.
Enjoy
EddessaKnight
Sixth Choice
I would go crazy betting one of these mechanical money movers, but if they work for you, I think that's great. I would, however, be skeptical about the one you propose here. In my experience fooling around with the tote board, your advice tends to direct attention directly at what I consider the weakest part of the field (ie, 3d betting choice). The problem with chalk (as we talk about a lot) is that it wins often but doesn't pay enough. By the time you get to 3d choice, there is a significant drop off in win percentage, but nothing like a compensating increase in price. For the very reasons you mention (being touted by selection services and program selections) third-choice odds are often quite low and seldom very high. Which leads me to my suggestion in response to your request: If you are going to do a mechanical watch-the-odds kind of play (where all the excitement comes before the race as you watch the numbers on the board), try this one. Restrict your attention to fields of 9 or more. In those races, bet the SIXTH choice. That's it; it's simple, elegant; and based on the premise that: chalk players will divide their money between first- and second-choice, trying to get a winner; and so-called value players will be disproportionately hammering third- and fourth-choices in hopes of "beating the chalk." As a result, you can get a surprisingly high combination of value and win % looking beyond those four. And of course, you don't have to try and figure out at three minutes to post how the final betting is going to push around the odds on those 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 horses. The wrinkle here is that you are looking to bet the clear sixth choice, and sometimes two horses will be very close together at that range (either 5th and 6th or sixth and seventh). My solution: where only two are close together, bet them both; if three are right together, pass the race. Sometimes when I am bored, I check out these results. Just to give you a sample from yesterday's Equibase charts, here's what would have happened at Fairgrounds. 2 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (10.90/1 and 10.80/1); bet 'em both: 6th choice wins, returning 23.80. 4 FG: sixth choice runs second, paying 12.40 to place (I have never checked the place payoffs on this, but I suspect it would be a better bet as win only) 5 FG: sixth choice wins, returning 19.00 (9.00 to place) 6 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (16.10/1 and 17.90/1); bet 'em both. 5th choice runs third, sixth choice nowhere. Total on the day: 4 races, 6 bets, 2 wins, 1 place, 1 show. Win bets: $12 returns $52.80. If you like watching the odds, try looking at this one.
I'd urge you to extend your analysis at least as far as number 6; you may be right about 85% of all winners coming from the top 5, but there are some tremendous underlays in that 85%. By the same token, you are likely to find nice value in the sixth spot. A few years ago (before I discovered the internet), I devoted one Keeneland spring meeting to the simplest odds system in the world: sixth choice to win, every time, and had a remarkably profitable meet. The difference in win % between 3d choice and 6th choice is not great, but the difference in average price is remarkable.
You should only be looking at fields with 9 or more starters. And, of course, you have to give it some time and accept a relatively low win percentage. If you get an average price of 12/1 (not unlikely in the range we are talking about), you only need to cash 3 of 39 to break even. Yesterday may have been a losing day (I don't know), but I doubt that it was very bad if it produced three winners.
~Prof Richard Nash
Hi everybody,
As promised an out of the box straighforward racing selection that doesn't promise the holy grail or magic but it's quick, simple, yielding oftentimes uncanny profitable results. No charge, no risk and very easy to back test with PP's.
Enjoy
EddessaKnight
Sixth Choice
I would go crazy betting one of these mechanical money movers, but if they work for you, I think that's great. I would, however, be skeptical about the one you propose here. In my experience fooling around with the tote board, your advice tends to direct attention directly at what I consider the weakest part of the field (ie, 3d betting choice). The problem with chalk (as we talk about a lot) is that it wins often but doesn't pay enough. By the time you get to 3d choice, there is a significant drop off in win percentage, but nothing like a compensating increase in price. For the very reasons you mention (being touted by selection services and program selections) third-choice odds are often quite low and seldom very high. Which leads me to my suggestion in response to your request: If you are going to do a mechanical watch-the-odds kind of play (where all the excitement comes before the race as you watch the numbers on the board), try this one. Restrict your attention to fields of 9 or more. In those races, bet the SIXTH choice. That's it; it's simple, elegant; and based on the premise that: chalk players will divide their money between first- and second-choice, trying to get a winner; and so-called value players will be disproportionately hammering third- and fourth-choices in hopes of "beating the chalk." As a result, you can get a surprisingly high combination of value and win % looking beyond those four. And of course, you don't have to try and figure out at three minutes to post how the final betting is going to push around the odds on those 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 horses. The wrinkle here is that you are looking to bet the clear sixth choice, and sometimes two horses will be very close together at that range (either 5th and 6th or sixth and seventh). My solution: where only two are close together, bet them both; if three are right together, pass the race. Sometimes when I am bored, I check out these results. Just to give you a sample from yesterday's Equibase charts, here's what would have happened at Fairgrounds. 2 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (10.90/1 and 10.80/1); bet 'em both: 6th choice wins, returning 23.80. 4 FG: sixth choice runs second, paying 12.40 to place (I have never checked the place payoffs on this, but I suspect it would be a better bet as win only) 5 FG: sixth choice wins, returning 19.00 (9.00 to place) 6 FG: two horses close together as 5th and 6th choice (16.10/1 and 17.90/1); bet 'em both. 5th choice runs third, sixth choice nowhere. Total on the day: 4 races, 6 bets, 2 wins, 1 place, 1 show. Win bets: $12 returns $52.80. If you like watching the odds, try looking at this one.
I'd urge you to extend your analysis at least as far as number 6; you may be right about 85% of all winners coming from the top 5, but there are some tremendous underlays in that 85%. By the same token, you are likely to find nice value in the sixth spot. A few years ago (before I discovered the internet), I devoted one Keeneland spring meeting to the simplest odds system in the world: sixth choice to win, every time, and had a remarkably profitable meet. The difference in win % between 3d choice and 6th choice is not great, but the difference in average price is remarkable.
You should only be looking at fields with 9 or more starters. And, of course, you have to give it some time and accept a relatively low win percentage. If you get an average price of 12/1 (not unlikely in the range we are talking about), you only need to cash 3 of 39 to break even. Yesterday may have been a losing day (I don't know), but I doubt that it was very bad if it produced three winners.
~Prof Richard Nash
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Sixth Choixe Questions & Answers
EddessaKnight
Do you play the 6th choice for money??
Absolutely not. As I said, this sort of exercise would drive me nuts in the real world, because I like handicapping too much. It's only a pattern I have looked at to pass time, occasionally. The longest I ever checked out was a three-week run from one track. If you are going to look into this in any sort of systematic way, I would suggest you keep detailed records on a number of races, recording the following information: Public choice (ie., favorite, 2d choice, etc.), win %, actual win payoffs. We all know (because it is so often studied), that for favorites the win % is good, but not good enough to offset the small actual payoff. In my experience keeping these kind of records (and I say, it's not terrible extensive experience), that still turns out to be a better value than 3d choice, where the win % is significantly lower and prices don't improve dramatically. When I was looking, I found that horses in the 5th, 6th, and 7th positions won only a little less frequently than horses in 3d and 4th range, but the payoffs were significantly better. I don't recommend blind betting of the tote, and I don't have the temperament that allows me to do it myself; but if someone put a gun to my head and made me invest their money that way, I would look for the clear 6th choice in fields of nine or more; and wherever two horses were within a couple of points of each other as 5th and 6th, or 6th and 7th, I'd bet both; if three horses were right together, I'd pass the race. I'd feel happy if I was getting 8-10% winners, because long-term I would expect my payoffs to average enough to make some money.
Robert writes: > > > > >
By blindly betting horses based on odds alone, you will have a negative > > >return on intvestment (ROI) whether you bet favorites or longshots or > > >anything in between. > > > >
I don't have data, but anecdotally I would expect negative expectation > to increase as you move from favorite to second-choice to third-choice > (probably the worst bet on the board), and then rapidly decrease in the > middle ranges, before increasing again at the far end of the spectrum. > In a full field of 12 horses, I would expect the best pure-odds wager > would be sixth choice. > > But that's based on seat of the pants anecdotal long-term study, not > verifiable number crunching. > > Richard
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Interestingly I did find an old study (1982) by Asch, Malkil and Quandt that shows that the 6th choice is underbet and wins slightly more often than its odds indicate. I wonder if this is the basis of the Nash’s theory? In any case, it still shows a negative R.O.I..
Bob
