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What are the Odds ??

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 7 years ago by KY Floyd.

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butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
Elgin, IL
United States
Member #68867
January 1, 2009
1221 Posts
Offline
Posted: February 27, 2010, 1:18 pm - IP Logged

1) Odds in hitting 5 out of 5 with 39 balls is 1 in 575,575

IL Little lotto (02/25/04 - 02/26/10) = 2,193 drawings - 5 different sets of (5 out of 5) have each hit  twice in the 2,193 drawings, and (4 out of 5) hitting more than once in the same period make up 45% of the total 2,193 drawings. 

Interesting!!!!

OH Rolling Cash 5 (10/04/04 -02/26/10) = 1,834 drawings - 4 different sets of (5 out of 5) have each hit twice in the 1,834 drawings,and (4 out of 5) hitting more than once in the same period make up 45% of the total 1,834 drawings.

Very Interesting !!!!

**********************************************************************************************************

2) Odds in hitting 5 out of 5 with 31 balls is 1 in 169,911

WI Badger 5 (02/17/03 -02/26/10) = 2,567 drawings - 36 different sets of (5 out of 5) have each hit twice in 2,567 drawings & 1 set of (5 out of 5) has hit three times; and, (4 out of 5) hitting more than once in the time period mentioned above make up 85% of the total 2,567 drawings.

Very Very Interesting!!!!

 

I ASK YOU --- WHAT ARE THE ODDS??????????

    butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
    The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
    Elgin, IL
    United States
    Member #68867
    January 1, 2009
    1221 Posts
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    Posted: February 27, 2010, 2:37 pm - IP Logged

    Just in case you are wondering what the multiple 5 out of 5 are:

    Illinois Little Lotto
    Date                 
    2006-09-211471439
    2009-11-131471439
    2009-03-25517253738
    2009-05-06517253738
    2005-12-061421222636
    2007-04-161421222636
    2006-12-151531323638
    2008-05-311531323638
    2004-09-281718262936
    2009-07-251718262936
    Ohio Rolling Cash 5
    Date
    2005-02-1816182439
    2009-09-0916182439
    2006-04-25314253537
    2008-03-22314253537
    2004-10-1278163436
    2008-12-2078163436
    2007-06-211417202230
    2009-01-041417202230
    Wisconsin Badger 5
    Date
    2004-08-1112111726
    2007-03-2212111726
    2004-07-261491012
    2005-12-011491012
    2004-03-1914101825
    2009-12-1314101825
    2006-11-0816222329
    2009-04-2516222329
    2006-08-1917122629
    2009-09-1917122629
    2005-08-0918171920
    2009-11-1518171920
    2004-08-28111232426
    2008-08-27111232426
    2006-06-29238910
    2008-07-20238910
    2005-06-0626121828
    2008-10-2026121828
    2008-02-042891623
    2008-08-072891623
    2005-08-1828111231
    2005-11-0728111231
    2004-09-16211192630
    2004-10-08211192630
    2007-10-113471324
    2009-12-193471324
    2003-07-0634192931
    2007-11-0634192931
    2004-09-073571425
    2005-06-263571425
    2005-11-1835112427
    2009-08-0335112427
    2004-01-2248262931
    2004-09-0148262931
    2004-07-21412152427
    2008-04-11412152427
    2006-05-29415172125
    2006-10-19415172125
    2006-10-15418222629
    2009-04-19418222629
    2007-02-095681519
    2007-03-205681519
    2004-04-06510262731
    2009-04-04510262731
    2007-08-16513171929
    2007-09-29513171929
    2003-07-08515182230
    2005-10-23515182230
    2003-10-07610142326
    2006-11-13610142326
    2003-02-26610212228
    2006-10-03610212228
    2008-08-08610212228
    2005-06-16616192128
    2005-07-07616192128
    2004-02-15617212326
    2006-03-15617212326
    2007-08-2279151931
    2009-11-2979151931
    2004-11-26710121931
    2005-02-18710121931
    2007-01-15712232630
    2009-06-25712232630
    2007-02-1989111825
    2009-06-0889111825
    2005-02-091016192127
    2005-10-101016192127
    2005-10-051215172730
    2009-01-081215172730
    2005-02-171314152031
    2008-02-211314152031
    2003-03-291416222429
    2004-04-141416222429
    2007-10-062324252728
    2008-08-062324252728
      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19826 Posts
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      Posted: March 1, 2010, 11:32 am - IP Logged

      Now that you know certain combinations are repeating when less than 5% of the possible combinations have hit, does this limits the combinations you're likely to play in these games?

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
        The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
        Elgin, IL
        United States
        Member #68867
        January 1, 2009
        1221 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: March 1, 2010, 1:37 pm - IP Logged

        No. Because I search for combinations of 4 of the same numbers hitting (hitting more than once) and group them into select groups

        e.g. Illinois Little Lotto

         

        2006-02-03311212234
        2006-09-11315212834
        2008-06-16316212228
        2009-03-04321222834
        2004-08-24321223234
        2007-07-31321242634
        2007-12-21322252834

         I have put some 300 groups like the one shown above into a worksheet.  Each group has a min of 2 lines  & up to 7 lines for this one.  Just scanning this group, I would be proned to select a favorite # as 3 21 22 28 34. It should be noted that these 300+ groups of 4 or more numbers hitting more than once make up 45% of the total drawings. ( 5 balls of out a total of 39 balls). And in the case of Wi Badger 5 (5 balls of out a total of 31 balls) groups of 4 or more hitting more than once make up 85% of the total drawings.

         

        As you but on the bottom of your replies. " What happens most, will most likely happen again ".

          butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
          The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
          Elgin, IL
          United States
          Member #68867
          January 1, 2009
          1221 Posts
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          Posted: March 1, 2010, 2:03 pm - IP Logged

          Please disregard line 5 as that was a cut & paste error.  3 21 24 26 34 does not belong in this group.  Instead of 7 lines in this group there should only be 6


            United States
            Member #87697
            March 1, 2010
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            Posted: March 1, 2010, 4:23 pm - IP Logged

            Hey Butch, i would like a plug to the source of  the data, where did you find that info? Those are valuable stats that i really can use.


              United States
              Member #87697
              March 1, 2010
              8 Posts
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              Posted: March 1, 2010, 5:44 pm - IP Logged

              Lets start off by answering part(a) to your conundrum.

              Lets say that we are going to reverse the game. We are going to play a game of "bet you can't do that agian". So the first drawing in the Rolling Cash was held on 10/04/2004, and guess what - we were there. We recorded the winning combo, and on 10/05/2004 we said "bet you cant do that agian". What we are actually saying is - there are 575,757 possible combinations, and i doubt you (Ohio RC) can play that one agian. Why? Because thats a 1 out of 575,757 odds. Now drawing #2 comes around and they didn't do it. Now we have two combinations that we are saying - "bet you can do that again". As the days and drawings go by our "bet you can't do that" list grows and grows. It will never go away, every day we are subjecting these reversed odds. So after a year we now have 365 drawings that we are saying - "bet you can't do that again". Thats 365 out of 575,757. Reduced looks more like 1 out of 1577. Well if we keep this up the odds get closer and closer and eventually the state will take you up on your bet. To further prove this we can look at the number of days between the repeats. It seems as tho it was once a year, but as time goes on and odds get smaller you will notice that the amount of days in between get shorter, and shorter yet to come.

              As of 2/26/2010 you claim that there were 1834 drawings. That is now 1830 out of 575,757(1834 minus the four duplicates). Reduced looks more like 1 out of 313.

               

              Likewise, you can apply the same theory to part(b) of the question. Without going to far into detail, remember that there are far less 4-way combinations of 39 balls, than 5-way. 82,251 to be exact. Also remember that in each drawing there are actually 5 four-ways combo within that one winning combination. So the "bet you cant do that again" is alot easier for the state to overcome when it comes to repeating a 4-way.

               

              Anyway this is only my two cents, hope you turn it into millions.

                Avatar
                NY
                United States
                Member #23835
                October 16, 2005
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                Posted: March 2, 2010, 12:21 am - IP Logged

                If the game lasts long enough without a matrix change we'll eventually get to the point where the unlikely outcome is having a result that hasn't come up previously.