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First time in the Texas Pick 3

Topic closed. 5 replies. Last post 7 years ago by jwhou.

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December 13, 2009
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Posted: February 28, 2010, 5:55 pm - IP Logged

Well, I finally jumped into playing the Texas Pick 3 games.    After a careful analysis of the odds and of the Sum It Up option, I decided that it was the Sum It Up where the hits were to be made so I played exact numbers with minimum $0.50 wagers but selected numbers to cover a spread of sums adjusting the bet amount to maximize the expected return at close to a $0.50 on the dollar expectation.   It would seem that playing boxed simply drops the expectations down to $0.48 on the dollar from $0.50 so it's better to purchase more three number combinations to cover the Sum It Up spread which tended to range in expectation from $0.3780 on the dollar return on the 10/17 sums to $0.50 on the dollar returns on the 3/24 and 0/27 sums.  The other sums approached $0.50 return but often only if you wager $1 or $5 instead of just the base $0.50 on the Sum It Up.   If you used their published odds which are rounded off, some of the expectations exceeded $0.50 but if you corrected the odds then only 3/24 and 0/27 sums are at the $0.50 mark, all others only approach it.   I don't understand why the pay table shows the payouts for $2, $3, and $4 wagers when the playslips only allow for $0.50, $1 and $5 wagers on the Sum It Up. 

My first foray costed $48.50 and won $40, a $0.82 on the dollar return which is somewhat more than expected and given that $11 were all or nothing bets on the outrigger 000, and 999 bets, I actually made money on the covering the spread section of the wager.   All the wins were on the Sum It Up rather than a hit on the Pick 3.

I guess I didn't do badly and it does seem like you can get some consistency out of the Pick 3's but it's still little more than waiting for the big one to strike which as long as you wager on a 000 or 999 with a $5 Sum It Up wager, can be as high as $2,750 or $3,000 depending on if you have a $0.50 base wager or a $1 base wager.   Still at 1 in 1,000 odds which means if you played just 000 and 999 for each draw both with the $5 sum it up wager, it would probably take 2.39 years to be 95% certain of hitting that $2,750.   The 50% mark which would likely be the median time to hit that prize would be 0.55 years and would cost $3,808.50 to hit that $2,750 which as lotteries go is pretty good but playing just 000 and 999 wouldn't get you much else while waiting for the big one to hit.   I suspect that the way to play the game is to cover the spread of the most likely Sums but not all the Sums and then the outrigger bets on 000 and 999.   333 and 666 seems a bit unusual as the payouts are slightly better than most of the other sums at the $1 wager mark but really not by much if you take the actual odds into consideration instead of the published rounded off odds.

Interestingly, in the 5,115 night draws in their history file, there are 7 0-0-0 hits and no 9-9-9 hits.   At 1:1000 odds for either, you would've expected it to be more balanced over the years.   The day draws are more balanced at 2 hits a piece over 2,454 draws which is right in line with what one would expect.

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    ohio
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    Posted: February 28, 2010, 6:40 pm - IP Logged

    jwhou Texas has a good flow to it's lottery system. Just pick yourslef a double as a pet number then wheel it, for example 100, 010, 001, ride it as your pet number then play all those other number. I see you're a numbers man so you should be ok.

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      rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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      Posted: February 28, 2010, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

      I rarely play P3 anymore, but I still watch and study the numbers. I find that you can make a profit playing for repeats. Each year you can figure on 3 or 4 repeats from the previous draw...day to night, night to day, day to day, and night to night. A few years ago I was spending a tremendous amount of money on this game, (before I learned about repeats) and while I won regularly, it wasn't enough to cover the cost of playing. I since realized that keeping the cost of play within reason is part of the key to playing the daily numbers games. When playing repeats, I only play straight. The $40 or $80 you win aren't enough to offset the cost of play over time. The money spent on box plays can't make up for the savings in not playing that way.

      Good luck and have fun. I like P3, I just spend a certain amount of $ on the lottery and my budget just isn't built to include this game even though it's fun.

      CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

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        Posted: February 28, 2010, 11:34 pm - IP Logged

        I rarely play P3 anymore, but I still watch and study the numbers. I find that you can make a profit playing for repeats. Each year you can figure on 3 or 4 repeats from the previous draw...day to night, night to day, day to day, and night to night. A few years ago I was spending a tremendous amount of money on this game, (before I learned about repeats) and while I won regularly, it wasn't enough to cover the cost of playing. I since realized that keeping the cost of play within reason is part of the key to playing the daily numbers games. When playing repeats, I only play straight. The $40 or $80 you win aren't enough to offset the cost of play over time. The money spent on box plays can't make up for the savings in not playing that way.

        Good luck and have fun. I like P3, I just spend a certain amount of $ on the lottery and my budget just isn't built to include this game even though it's fun.

        Interesting.

        The P3's tend to be RNG draws but the programs would be seeded from accepted physical random variables such as the exact time that the program was invoked, the number of processes running on the system, how long the computer had been up and clock drift which is usually due to environmental factors like temperature.   If repeats are occurring more often then expected then that means there's an awful lot of consistency in how the computers are being used at each draw such as the program being invoked automatically rather than by hand, the computers being started automatically from a timer etc.   It is possible if they had rigged the computers to automatically turn on at a specified time and start the draw automatically when it boots up, perhaps as a labour saving measure to simply make the draw at the same time each day with the same conditions.   Otherwise it would take a bias in the RNG algorithm for certain sequences for repeats to be occurring enough to be exploited and I would suspect they would run trial runs to rule that out statistically.

        As near as I can tell, the 1 in 167 odds of the P3 pales in comparison to that of the Sum It Up option where it can be as good as 1 in 13 so the wagers should be on the Sum It Up side not the P3.   The expectations on the P3's are consistently $0.50 return on the dollar on straights and $0.48 return on the dollar on the boxed wagers, $0.49 return on the dollar on the straight boxed while the returns vary more on the Sum It Up so it's a trade off between long term averages and the likelihood of a win.   Still many of the possible wagers on the Sum It Up have better returns than $0.49 and have better odds than 1 in 167.   It's this choice of choosing frequent smaller wins that is interesting as this could make the dollar go further in the short run most of the time rather than just patiently waiting for the big hit.    It certainly does seem like a game for fun as the prizes are hardly large enough to make a difference in one's life.

        One interesting aspect of the P3 is if you just played the long shot 000 and 999 every draw, the median time before hitting should be about 7 months although it can be as long as three years.   The median time before hitting on Texas Two Step if you played $5 per draw would be about 2,442 years.

          tiber's avatar - underground
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          Posted: February 28, 2010, 11:45 pm - IP Logged

          Interesting.

          The P3's tend to be RNG draws but the programs would be seeded from accepted physical random variables such as the exact time that the program was invoked, the number of processes running on the system, how long the computer had been up and clock drift which is usually due to environmental factors like temperature.   If repeats are occurring more often then expected then that means there's an awful lot of consistency in how the computers are being used at each draw such as the program being invoked automatically rather than by hand, the computers being started automatically from a timer etc.   It is possible if they had rigged the computers to automatically turn on at a specified time and start the draw automatically when it boots up, perhaps as a labour saving measure to simply make the draw at the same time each day with the same conditions.   Otherwise it would take a bias in the RNG algorithm for certain sequences for repeats to be occurring enough to be exploited and I would suspect they would run trial runs to rule that out statistically.

          As near as I can tell, the 1 in 167 odds of the P3 pales in comparison to that of the Sum It Up option where it can be as good as 1 in 13 so the wagers should be on the Sum It Up side not the P3.   The expectations on the P3's are consistently $0.50 return on the dollar on straights and $0.48 return on the dollar on the boxed wagers, $0.49 return on the dollar on the straight boxed while the returns vary more on the Sum It Up so it's a trade off between long term averages and the likelihood of a win.   Still many of the possible wagers on the Sum It Up have better returns than $0.49 and have better odds than 1 in 167.   It's this choice of choosing frequent smaller wins that is interesting as this could make the dollar go further in the short run most of the time rather than just patiently waiting for the big hit.    It certainly does seem like a game for fun as the prizes are hardly large enough to make a difference in one's life.

          One interesting aspect of the P3 is if you just played the long shot 000 and 999 every draw, the median time before hitting should be about 7 months although it can be as long as three years.   The median time before hitting on Texas Two Step if you played $5 per draw would be about 2,442 years.

          Texas Lottery is not RNG. NO Computer involve.Type

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            Posted: March 1, 2010, 12:49 am - IP Logged

            Texas Lottery is not RNG. NO Computer involve.Type

            Well, I guess that means there's no reason to expect repeats to be exploitable.