|Posted: March 16, 2010, 7:36 pm - IP Logged|
You are welcome ACPutz, no problem. I post these picks because I have had decent luck at Gulfstream over the years and I figure I would try and help a few of my fellow horseplayers. My picks are basically a heads up to other players. I am basically saying, hey look at these horses closely before you throw them out. I try NOT to pick the obvious horses, but sometimes the obvious favorites on paper are the best horses in the race.
1. The picks I post are the horses I feel will be running with a chance to win AT A PRICE. Now sometimes the public is on the same horses I am so you don't get a price. I don't play those races where 2 of my selections are below 3-1. I used to try and "cold deck" an exacta using favorites, but that never paid well enough.
2. Here is basically what I am doing. Each horse I pick has, in my thinking, a 20% chance of winning (4-1 odds) since I am picking 4 horses (most of the time) that covers 80% hence the rest of the field gets a 20% chance AND you have to factor in an ADDITIONAL 20% for the track takeout (minimum). Yes that adds up to 120% and if you look at any track program and add up the odds (convert to percent first) you will get between 110 and 130 percent. That is why I am looking for at least 5-1 on any horse I play. Ideally I want 10-1 or higher. I have no problem betting ANY longshots. I am trying to go AGAINST the public opinion so I can get PAID. So bascially I am what you would call a longshot player. Hence, I can not play every race.
3. To build my tickets (I play exacta and trifecta mainly) I look for a longshot to KEY and wheel him up and down with my other selections. I usually try not to box the bet and I usually play for a dollar. In the races on 3/14/2010 that is what I did in the 7th race. My key horse was the 8 who was going off at 17-1 when I bet and I put him on top of the 1, 6 and 9. I also bet the 8 like I explained in the post (Win double Place) and I also had some Show money on him to cover all the bases. Here is what my tickets looked like.
Ticket 1 Exacta Part Wheel: 8/1,6,9 Cost $3.00 (remember I am maknig $1.00 bets)
Ticket 2 Exacta Part Wheel: 1,6,9/8 Cost $3.00
Ticket 3 Tri Part Wheel: 8/1,6,9/1,6,9 Cost $6.00
Ticket 4 Tri Past Wheel: 1,6,9/8/1,6,9 Cost $6.00
Ticket 4 Win/Place 8
Ticket 5 Place/Show 8
The exotic bets cost me $18.00 and my straight bet betting unit is $20.00 so that puts me about $100 bucks into this race and I pulled out a very nice chunk of change.
4. There is no way I am playing every race. YOU CANNOT WIN BETTING EVERY RACE OR TRYING TO PICK THE WINNER. That's why I like the Gulfstream meeting, I don't have to sit on my hands all day waiting for a play, I get at least 2 or 3 plays a day. I only had serious bets on races 7 and 9 on 3/14. I hit the 7th race and missed the 9th race. If I lose a race I don't double up on the next race. That will eat your bankroll alive. I never bet more than 2% of my bankroll on any race. Since I am playing longshots, I have fairly long runouts, so I can't take chances by doubling up and chasing a win.
Good luck in your handicapping endeavors.
Whatever you fear most has no power - it is your fear that has the power.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
(attributed to) Albert Einstein
I have failed many times, and that's why I am a success.
My religion consists of a humble admiration of the illimitable superior spirit who reveals
himself in the slight details we are able to perceive with our frail and feeble mind.