Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 2, 2016, 5:18 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Gulfstream Park 3/14/2010 Full Card Selections

Topic closed. 4 replies. Last post 7 years ago by ACPutz.

Page 1 of 1
PrintE-mailLink
Big Hitter's avatar - tdspin17 e0.gif
Constitutional Money Is Real Money
Brick City
United States
Member #1216
March 3, 2003
1762 Posts
Offline
Posted: March 14, 2010, 11:53 am - IP Logged

All selections contenders for WIN.

All handicapping done BEFORE scratches and changes became available.

Betting advice: 1 betting unit to WIN: 2 betting units to PLACE (WIN double PLACE).

Look for value. Any selection going to post at odds higher than 5-1 is a value play.

Sorry, no time to type in analysis today.

Best Longshot: Race 2; #10 Trice AND Race 10; #11 Lion Thunder

Best Bet: Race 1; #7 Louie Mondello

Race 1

Selections: 7 - 9 - 6 - 3

The 9 is a first time starter with a strong workout pattern

Race 2

Selections: 10 - 6 - 1 Entry - 11

Race 3

Selections: 7 - 1 - 4 - 2

Race 4

Selections: 2 - 1 - 7 - 3

Race 5

Selections: 5 - 8 - 7 - 10             

Race 6

Selections: 7 - 10 - 6 - 2             

Race 7 

Selections: 6 - 1 Entry - 8 - 9

Race 8

Selections: 12 - 10 - 7 - 9

Use the 13 if in off the A/E list and use the 4 if there are additional scratches

Race 9

Selections: 9 - 6 - 1 Entry - 3

Race 10

Selections: 7 - 11 - 12 - 9 - 5


Whatever you fear most has no power - it is your fear that has the power.
Oprah Winfrey

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
(attributed to) Albert Einstein

I have failed many times, and that's why I am a success.
Michael Jordan

My religion consists of a humble admiration of the illimitable superior spirit who reveals
himself in the slight details we are able to perceive with our frail and feeble mind.

Albert Einstein

    Big Hitter's avatar - tdspin17 e0.gif
    Constitutional Money Is Real Money
    Brick City
    United States
    Member #1216
    March 3, 2003
    1762 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: March 14, 2010, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

    GP Results 3/14/2010 (After eating chalk early in the day Race 7 made my whole week!)

    Best Longshot: Race 2; #10 Trice Ran 6th.

    Race 10; #11 Lion Thunder Ran 11th.

    Best Bet: Race 1; #7 Louie Mondello Made the lead briefly and faded to 6th.

    Race 1

    10Sun Dance MoonJulien R. Leparoux5.003.002.60
    2Sea of LiquidityJavier Castellano  5.003.20
    6Cherokee WarpaintEddie Castro    3.20

    Race 2

    1AFast n'ClearLuis Saez4.002.602.10
    6DobraJulien R. Leparoux  2.802.40
    2Prize FeverDaniel Coa    5.40
    $2 Exacta1-68.20

    Race 3

    2Tiz the OneAlan Garcia3.202.102.10
    4Allez ReefPaco Lopez  2.202.10
    7Thomas Got EvenJose Lezcano    2.10
    $2 Exacta2-45.60
    $2 Daily Double1-26.80
    $1 Trifecta2-4-73.70

    Race 4

    3ManningtonElvis Trujillo5.803.403.00
    2Dream MaestroManoel R. Cruz  6.404.80
    1Famous PatriotJavier Castellano    4.80
    $2 Daily Double2-38.60
    $2 Exacta3-235.40
    $1 Trifecta3-2-158.20
    $1 Pick 31-2-3 (3 correct)8.70

    Race 5

    6Touching BeautyJavier Castellano5.403.402.60
    5Jersey Shore GirlPaco Lopez  14.406.60
    1Keep It a SecretCornelio H. Velasquez    3.40

    Race 6

    4WarblingJulien R. Leparoux7.804.403.40
    9Tar Heel MomAlan Garcia  6.404.60
    7Thunders DovePaco Lopez    6.20

    Race 7 

    8Excelente (IRE)Cornelio H. Velasquez30.0010.804.40
    9Dance With ClassPaco Lopez  7.003.60
    1AEasy AshleyJesus Lopez Castanon    2.10
    $2 Exacta8-9169.00
    $1 Trifecta8-9-1224.60

    Race 8

    12Grand Piano ManJavier Castellano5.604.003.20
    5Yellow Brick RoadLuca Panici  33.0015.60
    9Mr PostmanFlorent Geroux    6.40
    $2 Daily Double8-1289.80

    Race 9

    7Flamin' HotAlan Garcia29.8013.406.80
    9Malibu KnightJohn R. Velazquez  6.203.40
    3Peace At DawnJavier Castellano    5.60

    Race 10

    5Furious RunJohn R. Velazquez5.203.202.80
    8Mr. RicoRajiv Maragh  8.605.60
    1GrayKent J. Desormeaux    4.40

    Whatever you fear most has no power - it is your fear that has the power.
    Oprah Winfrey

    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
    (attributed to) Albert Einstein

    I have failed many times, and that's why I am a success.
    Michael Jordan

    My religion consists of a humble admiration of the illimitable superior spirit who reveals
    himself in the slight details we are able to perceive with our frail and feeble mind.

    Albert Einstein


      United States
      Member #79057
      August 26, 2009
      70 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: March 15, 2010, 4:56 pm - IP Logged

      Hey Bighitter,

      First off thanks for the posts.  I enjoy reading your predictions and you seem very knowledgeable on the races.

      I just wanted to ask you to expand on your money management a bit, if you wouldn't mind.

       

      Do you only play your selections if they're going off greater than 5 to 1, or do you just increase your bet if you're getting value?

      Do you have a special way of betting the exotics, cause boxing four horses can get pricey?

      And do you do some kind of bet increase on either a win or a loss to either makeup for losses or increase profits?

       

      I'm a bit of an amateur handicapper myself, and while I can usually spot some winners and narrow the field down - figuring out how the best wager my money alludes me.  Any advice would be greatly appreciated.  Thanx.

        Big Hitter's avatar - tdspin17 e0.gif
        Constitutional Money Is Real Money
        Brick City
        United States
        Member #1216
        March 3, 2003
        1762 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: March 16, 2010, 7:36 pm - IP Logged

        You are welcome ACPutz, no problem. I post these picks because I have had decent luck at Gulfstream over the years and I figure I would try and help a few of my fellow horseplayers. My picks are basically a heads up to other players. I am basically saying, hey look at these horses closely before you throw them out. I try NOT to pick the obvious horses, but sometimes the obvious favorites on paper are the best horses in the race.

        1. The picks I post are the horses I feel will be running with a chance to win AT A PRICE. Now sometimes the public is on the same horses I am so you don't get a price. I don't play those races where 2 of my selections are below 3-1. I used to try and "cold deck" an exacta using favorites, but that never paid well enough.

        2. Here is basically what I am doing. Each horse I pick has, in my thinking, a 20% chance of winning (4-1 odds) since I am picking 4 horses (most of the time) that covers 80% hence the rest of the field gets a 20% chance AND you have to factor in an ADDITIONAL 20% for the track takeout (minimum). Yes that adds up to 120% and if you look at any track program and add up the odds (convert to percent first) you will get between 110 and 130 percent. That is why I am looking for at least 5-1 on any horse I play. Ideally I want 10-1 or higher. I have no problem betting ANY longshots. I am trying to go AGAINST the public opinion so I can get PAID. So bascially I am what you would call a longshot player. Hence, I can not play every race.

        3. To build my tickets (I play exacta and trifecta mainly) I look for a longshot to KEY and wheel him up and down with my other selections. I usually try not to box the bet and I usually play for a dollar. In the races on 3/14/2010 that is what I did in the 7th race. My key horse was the 8 who was going off at 17-1 when I bet and I put him on top of the 1, 6 and 9. I also bet the 8 like I explained in the post (Win double Place) and I also had some Show money on him to cover all the bases. Here is what my tickets looked like.

        Ticket 1 Exacta Part Wheel: 8/1,6,9 Cost $3.00 (remember I am maknig $1.00 bets)

        Ticket 2 Exacta Part Wheel: 1,6,9/8 Cost $3.00

        Ticket 3 Tri Part Wheel: 8/1,6,9/1,6,9 Cost $6.00

        Ticket 4 Tri Past Wheel: 1,6,9/8/1,6,9 Cost $6.00

        Ticket 4 Win/Place 8

        Ticket 5 Place/Show 8

        The exotic bets cost me $18.00 and my straight bet betting unit is $20.00 so that puts me about $100 bucks into this race and I pulled out a very nice chunk of change.

        4. There is no way I am playing every race. YOU CANNOT WIN BETTING EVERY RACE OR TRYING TO PICK THE WINNER. That's why I like the Gulfstream meeting, I don't have to sit on my hands all day waiting for a play, I get at least 2 or 3 plays a day. I only had serious bets on races 7 and 9 on 3/14. I hit the 7th race and missed the 9th race. If I lose a race I don't double up on the next race. That will eat your bankroll alive. I never bet more than 2% of my bankroll on any race. Since I am playing longshots, I have fairly long runouts, so I can't take chances by doubling up and chasing a win.

        Good luck in your handicapping endeavors.

        Whatever you fear most has no power - it is your fear that has the power.
        Oprah Winfrey

        Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
        (attributed to) Albert Einstein

        I have failed many times, and that's why I am a success.
        Michael Jordan

        My religion consists of a humble admiration of the illimitable superior spirit who reveals
        himself in the slight details we are able to perceive with our frail and feeble mind.

        Albert Einstein


          United States
          Member #79057
          August 26, 2009
          70 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: March 17, 2010, 12:11 am - IP Logged

          Big Hitter you are definitely a class act.  I couldn't ask for more clearer, concise answers.  Thank for your time and knowledge, it's definitely appreciated. 

          Best of luck to you,

          ACPutz