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The many prediction ways.

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 7 years ago by LANTERN.

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LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
Tx
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Posted: May 11, 2010, 1:19 am - IP Logged

"Kali" has many arms.

And "Hydra" has many heads.

Prediction has many ways, including: Luck, Intuition, Etc.

I prefer prediction by statistics, even like that there are many ways in which a person can predict by statistics.

----------

What is prediction?

How can a person predict?

Are predictions accurate?

Can a person make accurate predictions and How?

How accurate can or will the predictions be?

--------------

Maybe more on these later as I make time for.

----------

Too bad that my filters prediction intuition is gone and also a great part of my filters knowledge.

Don't use, then you might lose.

--------

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    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: May 11, 2010, 1:16 pm - IP Logged

    The problem with lottery predicting is most players expect predictions to reduce their odds of winning  a jackpot to 1:1.  The odds of winning a 6/49 lottery jackpot are 1:13,983,816 and if it has three drawings a week, that's 156 chances a year to try and win it.  Buying a $10 ticket for each drawing would add up to $1,560 a year.  If one could expect to win a jackpot every three years playing that way, I would consider that a real good prediction system and yet that would be a prediction system with odds of 1:3,000 of a jackpot win which most players would say are lousy odds.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
      Tx
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      Posted: May 11, 2010, 11:00 pm - IP Logged

      The problem with lottery predicting is most players expect predictions to reduce their odds of winning  a jackpot to 1:1.  The odds of winning a 6/49 lottery jackpot are 1:13,983,816 and if it has three drawings a week, that's 156 chances a year to try and win it.  Buying a $10 ticket for each drawing would add up to $1,560 a year.  If one could expect to win a jackpot every three years playing that way, I would consider that a real good prediction system and yet that would be a prediction system with odds of 1:3,000 of a jackpot win which most players would say are lousy odds.

      RJOh

      Thanks a lot!

      --------------

      Now, What is (Lottery) prediction?

      If a person says that 017 will come out on the next draw and it does, that is some kind of a prediction.

      But if a person posts very many numbers and says that the winning number to come next will be among that group, Is that still a prediction?

      In order to know that we need to know the odds and to compare that prediction to the same amount of random numbers, this is regardless of how much they pay for getting the winning number for that particular game, we are not talking about making a profit, but about doing better than by "Random Chance".

      The straight pick 3 game has 1000 combinations-numbers.

      If we post 999 combinations we will of course have a very good chance of winning, so that might not be called a prediction, as that amount of numbers might win straight 999 out of every 1000 draws, I might be wrong as I don't know anything about Math.

      But if a person posted 500 straight numbers per each draw and on a very extended trial wins 60% or more of the time maybe that is prediction.

      So if posted numbers on an extended trial win more often than they would by random chance, maybe that is prediction.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction

      http://science.education.nih.gov/supplements/nih2/oral-health/other/glossary.htm

      prediction: To foresee using observation, experience, or scientific reason.

      I like that one best.

      -----------

      More later.

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      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

        LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
        Tx
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        Posted: May 13, 2010, 12:33 am - IP Logged

        How can a person predict?

        Well, let us try, maybe the most basic kind of prediction, a future event that has only 2 possible outcomes.

        -----

        There is not much that can be done when there are only 2 possible outcomes for one event.

        But after all, random or at least lottery random is not quite random, at least not on the short run, but accurate prediction for 50-50 chances is very hard to do.

        Let us look at some stats:

        The Tx pick 3 thread took too much of my time and now don't have much time for this.

        Tx Pick 3 Midday

        Last draw on top.

        Mostly Low and Mostly High.

        As always, mistakes are very possible on all of my posts, so beware!

        3    6    8 H
        0    3    9 L
        9    0    7 H
        1    8    1 L
        2    7    1 L
        8    4    5 H
        8    1    0 L
        6    7    8 H
        1    8    5 H
        4    0    6 L
        2    4    8 L
        4    1    3 L
        5    1    1 L
        7    8    9 H
        9    3    1 L
        0    9    1 L
        7    5    4 H
        1    6    9 H
        7    5    5 H
        2    1    1 L
        6    1    4 L
        1    9    3 L
        7    0    7 H
        6    7    4 H
        2    5    6 H
        9    8    6 H
        7    5    9 H

        -----------

        Last draw on top.

        Mostly Even and Mostly Odd.

        3    6    8 E
        0    3    9 O
        9    0    7 O
        1    8    1 O
        2    7    1 O
        8    4    5 E
        8    1    0 E
        6    7    8 E
        1    8    5 O
        4    0    6 E
        2    4    8 E
        4    1    3 O
        5    1    1 O
        7    8    9 O
        9    3    1 O
        0    9    1 O
        7    5    4 O
        1    6    9 O
        7    5    5 O
        2    1    1 O
        6    1    4 E
        1    9    3 O
        7    0    7 O
        6    7    4 E
        2    5    6 E
        9    8    6 E

        7    5    9 O

        --------------

        I am out of time for now. this stuff will have to wait until I have the time, when I do have time I will study those stats and try to see if there is anything there of possible prediction use.

        So I can talk or try to about prediction of 2 possible outcomes of 1 event.

        The "Trick" with prediction, is to try to work with random and getting to know random.

        More on this particular post whenever I can, maybe on Sat or Sun or before, if I can.

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          NASHVILLE, TENN
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          Posted: May 13, 2010, 10:06 am - IP Logged

               I do not think that a winning system which will result in a 1:1 ratio is possible.  After all, lotto is a random system.

               A system which will create a group of numbers which share a common trait (or traits) that results in a win, making lotto profitable, is possible. 

               The trick now is to find those traits (i.e. filters) which are germane to a random system.  Once found, those traits must be studied to determine the best algorithym which will produce that one group of numbers which contain a winning combination. 

               Of course, finding cure for cancer and brokering a lasting peace in the Mid-East might be easier.

            Avatar
            Kentucky
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            Posted: May 13, 2010, 12:05 pm - IP Logged

            RJOh

            Thanks a lot!

            --------------

            Now, What is (Lottery) prediction?

            If a person says that 017 will come out on the next draw and it does, that is some kind of a prediction.

            But if a person posts very many numbers and says that the winning number to come next will be among that group, Is that still a prediction?

            In order to know that we need to know the odds and to compare that prediction to the same amount of random numbers, this is regardless of how much they pay for getting the winning number for that particular game, we are not talking about making a profit, but about doing better than by "Random Chance".

            The straight pick 3 game has 1000 combinations-numbers.

            If we post 999 combinations we will of course have a very good chance of winning, so that might not be called a prediction, as that amount of numbers might win straight 999 out of every 1000 draws, I might be wrong as I don't know anything about Math.

            But if a person posted 500 straight numbers per each draw and on a very extended trial wins 60% or more of the time maybe that is prediction.

            So if posted numbers on an extended trial win more often than they would by random chance, maybe that is prediction.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction

            http://science.education.nih.gov/supplements/nih2/oral-health/other/glossary.htm

            prediction: To foresee using observation, experience, or scientific reason.

            I like that one best.

            -----------

            More later.

            "If a person says that 017 will come out on the next draw and it does, that is some kind of a prediction. But if a person posts very many numbers and says that the winning number to come next will be among that group, Is that still a prediction?"

            I would give more credibility to a predictor that had at least a 0, 1, or 7 in the same position in all their other predictions and didn't claim a box hit as a win. If someone thinks 017 is going to hit, why predict 285?

            Many predictors will use the same set of numbers in several states both midday and evening drawings and to me that's not credible predicting.

              LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
              Tx
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              Posted: May 13, 2010, 11:08 pm - IP Logged

                   I do not think that a winning system which will result in a 1:1 ratio is possible.  After all, lotto is a random system.

                   A system which will create a group of numbers which share a common trait (or traits) that results in a win, making lotto profitable, is possible. 

                   The trick now is to find those traits (i.e. filters) which are germane to a random system.  Once found, those traits must be studied to determine the best algorithym which will produce that one group of numbers which contain a winning combination. 

                   Of course, finding cure for cancer and brokering a lasting peace in the Mid-East might be easier.

              GASMETERGUY

              I don't have any idea whatsoever what an algorithm is, I don't know anything about Math.

              But for the most part you are right about what you said there on that post.

              It is very much likely to have the winning number among a group of combinations than by itself.

              But having the winning number by itself sometime(s) should not be impossible, just hard and not very likely.

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              "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                Tx
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                Posted: May 13, 2010, 11:11 pm - IP Logged

                "If a person says that 017 will come out on the next draw and it does, that is some kind of a prediction. But if a person posts very many numbers and says that the winning number to come next will be among that group, Is that still a prediction?"

                I would give more credibility to a predictor that had at least a 0, 1, or 7 in the same position in all their other predictions and didn't claim a box hit as a win. If someone thinks 017 is going to hit, why predict 285?

                Many predictors will use the same set of numbers in several states both midday and evening drawings and to me that's not credible predicting.

                Boxed predictions are O.K. also, but not in the way that some people make them, such as you describe and in some other ways.

                ------------

                Still no time Today to continue nor soon, maybe Sat or on Sun!

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                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: May 14, 2010, 1:13 pm - IP Logged

                       I do not think that a winning system which will result in a 1:1 ratio is possible.  After all, lotto is a random system.

                       A system which will create a group of numbers which share a common trait (or traits) that results in a win, making lotto profitable, is possible. 

                       The trick now is to find those traits (i.e. filters) which are germane to a random system.  Once found, those traits must be studied to determine the best algorithym which will produce that one group of numbers which contain a winning combination. 

                       Of course, finding cure for cancer and brokering a lasting peace in the Mid-East might be easier.

                  That's basically what I've been trying to do.  Picking numbers and combining them in a way that 95% of previous drawings have done.  Last Wednesday's PB numbers 37 51 51 53 58 +38 were really outside those parameters, all the numbers were in the top half of the pool of 59 numbers which happens less than 5% of the time, 4 of 5 of the numbers were in the same decade and their sum was 251 which was the highest ever.   So while during that will eliminate a lot of possible combinations, it also eliminates a a few possible winners.  It's like picking a few customized quick picks and hoping for the best.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                    Tx
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                    Posted: May 15, 2010, 9:59 pm - IP Logged

                    That's basically what I've been trying to do.  Picking numbers and combining them in a way that 95% of previous drawings have done.  Last Wednesday's PB numbers 37 51 51 53 58 +38 were really outside those parameters, all the numbers were in the top half of the pool of 59 numbers which happens less than 5% of the time, 4 of 5 of the numbers were in the same decade and their sum was 251 which was the highest ever.   So while during that will eliminate a lot of possible combinations, it also eliminates a a few possible winners.  It's like picking a few customized quick picks and hoping for the best.

                    From the post that I made days ago, those were real Tx draws:

                    ---------------

                    Tx Pick 3 Midday

                    Last draw on top.

                    Mostly Low and Mostly High.

                    As always, mistakes are very possible on all of my posts, so beware!

                    3    6    8 H
                    0    3    9 L
                    9    0    7 H
                    1    8    1 L
                    2    7    1 L
                    8    4    5 H
                    8    1    0 L
                    6    7    8 H
                    1    8    5 H
                    4    0    6 L
                    2    4    8 L
                    4    1    3 L
                    5    1    1 L
                    7    8    9 H
                    9    3    1 L
                    0    9    1 L
                    7    5    4 H
                    1    6    9 H
                    7    5    5 H
                    2    1    1 L
                    6    1    4 L
                    1    9    3 L
                    7    0    7 H
                    6    7    4 H
                    2    5    6 H
                    9    8    6 H
                    7    5    9 H

                    -----------------------------

                    Those are about 27 past draws from oldest down to newest on top, they are some days old.

                    About 13 or 14 draws are half of them, High-Low is 50-50.

                    In the long run maybe we might get Half High and Half Low patterns, more or less, those might be harder to figure out unless special software is made just for that.

                    So I have to go with short term patterns.

                    I have to think that what often happens (At least in short sections of past draws) will keep on happening later on future draws, but that does not have to be true, not at all.

                    I have to work without statistics other than what I myself can see on relatively short sections of past draws, LP's last 10 past draws are available without too much trouble.

                    I used to be a fair pick 3 predictor because I kept the game and prediction on my mind every day, I often looked at the past draws, meditated on them and often made very many filters workouts, little by little I developed some kind of filters intuition.

                    Well, I got tired of having the pick 3 game on my mind for so much of my awake time every day.

                    It was very hard to quit thinking so much about it, but little by little I was able to for the most part leave it alone.

                    The intuition and a lot of the knowledge went away little by little with time.

                    ----------

                    What I used to do was not quite prediction, it was forecasting, the numbers might come out or not, it was-is all what appear(s)  to be chances.

                    -------

                    There on those draws there seems to be 14 Highs and 13 Lows, but nowdays I don't see too well, so I could be wrong.

                    Anyhow, if right, then it is as it should be, this does not mean that on all such sections of past draws will always be like that.

                    We (I) want to see if there is a way to beat random at all, even to some small degree.

                    ------------

                    There are 27 past draws there so if we had picked to Only PLay the High Pattern, or Only the Low Pattern, we might have Won about Half of the Time, remember I am not talking about making a profit, just about doing better than by Random Chance.

                    So there the worst that we might have done (Maybe) in the very long run is to come somewhere about close to even with Random Chance.

                    ---------------

                    That is why we should go a little deeper in our observations and take a little closer look.

                    ----------------

                    On those few past draws If we had kept on playing the same pattern, be it low or high until it changed, then maybe we would have done better, let us see.

                    No, with that technique there we would still have won only about half of the time.

                    ------------------

                    Now we know again why I never before bothered with 50-50 filters.

                    Instead, if we would know more or less for sure that during a given number of past draws half of the draws more or less would have 1 particular pattern and another half the oder, as it happened on these 27 past draws, then we could try to use that.

                    --------------

                    As it is, because it is 1 50-50 pattern, we know to it should switch to another pattern from the one before before way too long.

                    For example on those draws it went for no more than 5 draws that we can see there before it changed from High to Low patterns and more often from 1 to 4 draws before there was a change.

                    So knowing that maybe a progression betting technique could be use, the problem with that is that because it is a 50-50 filter one has to buy half of the total draws and only a very very rich person can afford that.

                    ----------------

                    That is why I stayed away from 50-50 filters.

                    ---------------

                    More to come later sometime, this is not finished yet.

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                      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                      Tx
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                      Posted: May 17, 2010, 10:49 pm - IP Logged

                      Sorry, I am ending this thread.

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