Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 6, 2016, 4:42 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Artificial Intelligence

Topic closed. 73 replies. Last post 6 years ago by martor854.

Page 3 of 5
51
PrintE-mailLink
RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
3968 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 22, 2010, 3:18 am - IP Logged

RL,

Would you believe, I just inadvertantly included a Link in a reply to you that I spent over an hour on?  I dealt with most of the issues in your post but I don't have the time or energy to try to re-compose it now. Unhappy  Briefly, I took back my accusation of "propagating ignorance" but re-asserted my "Homework" recommendations of analysing the PA Daily Number 33 year results and the Gambler's Fallacy at wikipedia.  I said I think so-called Lottery Systems give false hope to poor people causing them to spend more than they can afford to lose and I also recommended a book:

"Fooled by Randomness" by Nicholas Taleb.

The Amazon Review I pasted in is what made my posting DISAPPEAR!  Not the Review itself (I hope!), but the four characters following the n in the word Amazon -  Here goes again!

Amazon Review

If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended.

--Harry C. Edwards --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

--Jimmy

Jimmy

I understand what you are trying to do and maybe this is the best place to do it.  I have a different

view of random theory when it comes to lotteries but agree that this might be a problem for some.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

    MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

    Norway
    Member #9517
    December 10, 2004
    1272 Posts
    Online
    Posted: July 22, 2010, 7:20 am - IP Logged

    A lottery drawing pattern got nothing to do with balls communicating or even the balls remembering which numbers was drawn in the last draw.

    For a period I tested the Excel addon PredictorXL on lottery draws. I was only using dates and the numbers drawn and very often it came up with one number correct, two numbers once in a while and three numbers so seldom it wasn't worth trying. I am sure there are methods of using NNs to improve on my results. There are several ways of implementing NNs. PredictorXL use only one method.


      United States
      Member #93947
      July 10, 2010
      2180 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 23, 2010, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

      A lottery drawing pattern got nothing to do with balls communicating or even the balls remembering which numbers was drawn in the last draw.

      For a period I tested the Excel addon PredictorXL on lottery draws. I was only using dates and the numbers drawn and very often it came up with one number correct, two numbers once in a while and three numbers so seldom it wasn't worth trying. I am sure there are methods of using NNs to improve on my results. There are several ways of implementing NNs. PredictorXL use only one method.

      "A lottery drawing pattern got nothing to do with balls communicating or even the balls remembering which numbers was drawn in the last draw."

      What sort of patterns are you referring to then, and WHAT do you believe is causing them?

        MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

        Norway
        Member #9517
        December 10, 2004
        1272 Posts
        Online
        Posted: July 23, 2010, 6:17 pm - IP Logged

        "A lottery drawing pattern got nothing to do with balls communicating or even the balls remembering which numbers was drawn in the last draw."

        What sort of patterns are you referring to then, and WHAT do you believe is causing them?

        The pattern might consist of repetitions, how often a number has been drawn in a perhaps 10 or 20 draws, how often a number has been drawn together with another number(s) etc.

        This might be because of wear and tear on the drawing equipment and balls and/or how the drawing equipment and balls was designed and manufactured.


          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
          2180 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 24, 2010, 1:22 am - IP Logged

          The pattern might consist of repetitions, how often a number has been drawn in a perhaps 10 or 20 draws, how often a number has been drawn together with another number(s) etc.

          This might be because of wear and tear on the drawing equipment and balls and/or how the drawing equipment and balls was designed and manufactured.

          Don't most states routinely swap out machines and sets of balls after each draw?

          Also, do you really think 10 or 20 draws is a sufficient number to gain statistical significance for at least the 95% level, so you could have confidence in your analysis?


            United States
            Member #81843
            October 31, 2009
            856 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 24, 2010, 3:45 am - IP Logged

            Don't most states routinely swap out machines and sets of balls after each draw?

            Also, do you really think 10 or 20 draws is a sufficient number to gain statistical significance for at least the 95% level, so you could have confidence in your analysis?

            Double DUH,....

            DD


              United States
              Member #93947
              July 10, 2010
              2180 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 24, 2010, 5:47 pm - IP Logged

              Double DUH,....

              DD

              There seem to be 2 schools of thought here on the predictability of Lotto games.  Since Double-DUH, er, Delta Draw didn't specify whether he was confused by my questions, thinks they were totally irrelevant or naive, or otherwise not worth commenting on, I'm not sure which school he fits into.

              The first school consists of those who are firmly entrenched in their belief in the Gambler's Fallacy.  (See my other posts or check it out at Wikipedia.)  If the selection of winners in a given Lotto game is totally and reliably random, then, probability theory, computer simulations, statistical analysis of historical data, and just plain common sense completely debunk these beliefs.

              Which leaves the 2nd school.  These people apparently understand the false hope provided by the Gambler's Fallacy, but suspect there are real mechanical or human intrusions in the selection process, thus causing the results NOT to be truly random.  Consequently, they invest considerable amounts of time analyzing past results in an effort to uncover, not the source of these intrusions, but anomalies, or patterns in the winning selections.  They then use [what they perceive to be] anomalies in an attempt to choose numbers they expect to be more likely in the future.  Unfortunately, attempts to uncover fraud or mechanical problems in this way are,  from a statistical point of view, next to useless.  Why?  First of all, completely random processes routinely exhibit "runs" or repeats.  So, UNLESS a ping pong ball is clearly observed in slow motion video to be either hovering above the others, or lying on the bottom, it will be next to impossible to determine whether observed "runs" are the result of random variation or some other effect.  Another aspect of this is that EVEN IF humans are tinkering with the balls in an effort to increase the likelihood of certain results, they would have learned over 3 decades ago to be subtle and remove the tainted balls or undo machine contrivances for the next draw.  If they didn't do this, lottery watching statisticians would detect the anomaly in short order and they would be found out. If the conspirators are smart,  the "patterns" everyone here are searching for are at the end of their tails!   If the conspirators are NOT too smart, as happened on April 24, 1980 in Pittsburgh, the ruse will likely be exposed in short order, sooner than any discernable "patterns" could be identified.  See "1980 Pennsylvania Lottery Scandal" at Wikipedia for the details of the conspiracy.

              So, what school do you attend DD?

              P.S.  Games whose results are selected by computer are a whole new ball game.  My comments above are not directed at these games.  I do not play them.

               

               

                MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

                Norway
                Member #9517
                December 10, 2004
                1272 Posts
                Online
                Posted: July 25, 2010, 8:05 am - IP Logged

                I don't believe AI will be able to pick numbers with high accuracy . If we could be able to make it come up with three hits once in a while on a pick-6 lottery we should be very pleased.

                AI used in combination with statistics and a system will perhaps increase the posibillity of getting four number hits or five number hits more often.


                  United States
                  Member #81843
                  October 31, 2009
                  856 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: July 26, 2010, 3:18 pm - IP Logged

                  Don't most states routinely swap out machines and sets of balls after each draw?

                  Also, do you really think 10 or 20 draws is a sufficient number to gain statistical significance for at least the 95% level, so you could have confidence in your analysis?

                  Q1: yes

                  Q2: yes. Game dependant.

                  As for randomness, I am of the school that choas seeks order.

                  DD

                    Avatar

                    United States
                    Member #83701
                    December 13, 2009
                    225 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: July 27, 2010, 10:22 pm - IP Logged

                    Hi,

                    I will like to know if somebody is seriously studying or using artificial intelligence for lotto, I know there are some old posts about it and some explanations but has somebody got good results using artificial intelligence software or algorithms?

                    Is important to me because I am currently working on this kind of software, using backpropagation and it will be very helpful to get some feedback from your experience.

                    Thank you ;-)

                    If you are playing with Neural Networks, you don't actually need any fancy software to do so.   You can model a neural net with matrice multiplications.

                      themagician's avatar - artificial intelligence-1.jpg

                      France
                      Member #92435
                      June 7, 2010
                      43 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: July 28, 2010, 10:39 am - IP Logged

                      Hi,

                      Thanks to every one for taking the time to talk about all this. I would like to ask Jimmy if it is not AI, what do you use to play?  Any system? There is always a danger to dellusion when comming to something like lotto game.

                      But I see it like playing with numbers, that is already fun to me, some times I've made small amount and there is always the possibility for the big hit. I use AI sometimes, it is not the only thing though.

                      As for me I will continue with AI investigation, experimenting with parameters, Jwhou I've already modeled a base with backpropagation, it doesn't use matrice multiplication but it works, I've got similar results as those quoted by MillionsWanted with the PredictorXL software. I need to work on preparing the data now with the proper parameters and see how it works.

                      Imagination can take you anywhere

                      http://www.artificialintelligencelotto.com 


                        United States
                        Member #81843
                        October 31, 2009
                        856 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: July 29, 2010, 4:02 am - IP Logged

                        Hi,

                        Thanks to every one for taking the time to talk about all this. I would like to ask Jimmy if it is not AI, what do you use to play?  Any system? There is always a danger to dellusion when comming to something like lotto game.

                        But I see it like playing with numbers, that is already fun to me, some times I've made small amount and there is always the possibility for the big hit. I use AI sometimes, it is not the only thing though.

                        As for me I will continue with AI investigation, experimenting with parameters, Jwhou I've already modeled a base with backpropagation, it doesn't use matrice multiplication but it works, I've got similar results as those quoted by MillionsWanted with the PredictorXL software. I need to work on preparing the data now with the proper parameters and see how it works.

                        Good for you!

                        Looking at the results and what can be is fun. Numbers are fun. You really got to love the challenge and that is part of the game, the entertainment. Not a bad hobby at all.

                        DD

                          themagician's avatar - artificial intelligence-1.jpg

                          France
                          Member #92435
                          June 7, 2010
                          43 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: August 3, 2010, 9:09 am - IP Logged

                          Good for you!

                          Looking at the results and what can be is fun. Numbers are fun. You really got to love the challenge and that is part of the game, the entertainment. Not a bad hobby at all.

                          DD

                          Yes, while other people play Sudoku I play with my numbers, lol

                          Imagination can take you anywhere

                          http://www.artificialintelligencelotto.com 

                            Avatar
                            New Member
                            Hanoi
                            Viet Nam
                            Member #95814
                            August 18, 2010
                            8 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: August 20, 2010, 3:44 am - IP Logged

                            Can I discuss something to you?

                            I have done alot of ANN softs to solve problems in variety fields. In lottery I also try 2 tools: excel add-in tools (which can be downloaded from neuroxl dot com) and labview soft (i creat it), but the results, in any case, is not expected.

                            When I bring up the level of ANN network to higher level, the situation can be promoted, but not much. In my experience, I think ANN operates in current computers, can not solve the lottery problems.


                              United States
                              Member #43694
                              July 23, 2006
                              184 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: August 22, 2010, 11:20 pm - IP Logged

                              If you are playing with Neural Networks, you don't actually need any fancy software to do so.   You can model a neural net with matrice multiplications.

                              Here is the best neural net I found, you can set it up for cash five. Out of 3 sets you get two numbers in one set.

                              Many times you get one number in each set.

                              The problem is to find the correct setting for the AI.

                              Here it is,  http://stonisa.info/hobby.php

                              Go to number one

                              "# Lotto Artificial Intelligence
                              Excellent software that uses Artificial Neural Network to try to predict numbers to be drawn in the current round using history of previous draws. The prediction can be used to manually or pseudo-randomly carefully choose numbers to make winning combinati
                              current version: 1.2.1.1 "