Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 8, 2016, 1:03 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

odds of winning

Topic closed. 4 replies. Last post 6 years ago by savagegoose.

Page 1 of 1
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
New Member

United States
Member #94445
July 20, 2010
13 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 21, 2010, 10:29 am - IP Logged


As a new lottery player, I'd like to calculate the odds of winning.  Each NYLottery game has posted
odds, however, my calculations give different odds.  Perhaps I am not doing it right, or
they use a different method, but here are my results compared to theirs:

If we use #'s 0-9, and pick one number, then odds of winning are 1 in 10.  Thus, I just have to
buy 10 tickets, play all numbers, and will get a winner 100%.
If 3 numbers are picked, then it's 10x10x10, or 000-999, thus 1:1000 correct?

But, in a single Take5 game, numbers cannot repeat.  Key space is 39.
thus 39x38x37x36x35 = 69,090,840 
To win top prize(all 5 #'s matched), their odds are 1:575,757. 

How is that calculated?

Pick10 has better odds, eventhough the key space is 80.  Since 20 numbers are picked(1/4),
and you pick 10(1/8), top prize matches 10, thus you have 2x chances to win.  But, that's the same odds as matching 5 to 10 if key space was 40.

Winning Numbers Matched Per Game: 10
Prize: $500,000
Chances of Winning
on one Game Panel
1:8,911,711

Isnt it 80^10?

In any case, how is that any better than playing slots in Vegas or A.C.?  1c, 5c, 25c, gives more games than $1 on above.  I played 1c at a casino in Vegas, and won $10; that's 1000%.

    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
    Chief Bottle Washer
    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #1
    May 31, 2000
    23273 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 21, 2010, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

    <Moved to Mathematics forum>

    Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

      Raven62's avatar - binary
      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #17843
      June 28, 2005
      49781 Posts
      Online
      Posted: July 21, 2010, 3:58 pm - IP Logged


      As a new lottery player, I'd like to calculate the odds of winning.  Each NYLottery game has posted
      odds, however, my calculations give different odds.  Perhaps I am not doing it right, or
      they use a different method, but here are my results compared to theirs:

      If we use #'s 0-9, and pick one number, then odds of winning are 1 in 10.  Thus, I just have to
      buy 10 tickets, play all numbers, and will get a winner 100%.
      If 3 numbers are picked, then it's 10x10x10, or 000-999, thus 1:1000 correct?

      But, in a single Take5 game, numbers cannot repeat.  Key space is 39.
      thus 39x38x37x36x35 = 69,090,840 
      To win top prize(all 5 #'s matched), their odds are 1:575,757. 

      How is that calculated?

      Pick10 has better odds, eventhough the key space is 80.  Since 20 numbers are picked(1/4),
      and you pick 10(1/8), top prize matches 10, thus you have 2x chances to win.  But, that's the same odds as matching 5 to 10 if key space was 40.

      Winning Numbers Matched Per Game: 10
      Prize: $500,000
      Chances of Winning
      on one Game Panel
      1:8,911,711

      Isnt it 80^10?

      In any case, how is that any better than playing slots in Vegas or A.C.?  1c, 5c, 25c, gives more games than $1 on above.  I played 1c at a casino in Vegas, and won $10; that's 1000%.

      How To Calculate Odds

      Lottery Post Forums Search is Your Friend:

      http://www.lotterypost.com/search/forums?q='calculate+odds'&t=all

      A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

        johnph77's avatar - avatar
        CA
        United States
        Member #2987
        December 10, 2003
        832 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 21, 2010, 6:25 pm - IP Logged

        The reasoning behind this is, when one picks 5 numbers out of a pool, there are 120 different ways in which those 5 numbers can be picked, ranging from 1-2-3-4-5 to 5-4-3-2-1, hence the game odds are calculated as (39x38x37x36x35)/(1x2x3x4x5). That formula yields 575,757.

        Pick 10 is far more complicated, since 10 different games are being played from one draw.

        Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

        Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

         =^.^=

          savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
          adelaide sa
          Australia
          Member #37136
          April 11, 2006
          3300 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 22, 2010, 4:30 am - IP Logged


          As a new lottery player, I'd like to calculate the odds of winning.  Each NYLottery game has posted
          odds, however, my calculations give different odds.  Perhaps I am not doing it right, or
          they use a different method, but here are my results compared to theirs:

          If we use #'s 0-9, and pick one number, then odds of winning are 1 in 10.  Thus, I just have to
          buy 10 tickets, play all numbers, and will get a winner 100%.
          If 3 numbers are picked, then it's 10x10x10, or 000-999, thus 1:1000 correct?

          But, in a single Take5 game, numbers cannot repeat.  Key space is 39.
          thus 39x38x37x36x35 = 69,090,840 
          To win top prize(all 5 #'s matched), their odds are 1:575,757. 

          How is that calculated?

          Pick10 has better odds, eventhough the key space is 80.  Since 20 numbers are picked(1/4),
          and you pick 10(1/8), top prize matches 10, thus you have 2x chances to win.  But, that's the same odds as matching 5 to 10 if key space was 40.

          Winning Numbers Matched Per Game: 10
          Prize: $500,000
          Chances of Winning
          on one Game Panel
          1:8,911,711

          Isnt it 80^10?

          In any case, how is that any better than playing slots in Vegas or A.C.?  1c, 5c, 25c, gives more games than $1 on above.  I played 1c at a casino in Vegas, and won $10; that's 1000%.

          where you quote 39x38x37

           

          that is correct if you want to get the exact order of drawn numbers, ie 1st ball drawn is a 5, it is indeed 1 in 39, but if the order isnt important then there are 5/39 odds for 1st ball. and then 4/38 for second ball. 3 of 37 balls. etc.

          math is something like, 39x38x37x36x35  / 5x4x3x2x1

          2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

          keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297