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How to use variance for pick 3 (for dummies)

Topic closed. 63 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Rick G.

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Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
FEMA Region V Camp #21
United States
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July 27, 2002
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Posted: August 29, 2010, 1:24 pm - IP Logged

[Note:  the formula I use and how I use it is results from trial and error only.  I don't claim it to be mathematically 'correct'.  It just works.]

This is for states with a pick 3 AND pick 4 game that comes right after the pick 3 draw.

You can use the midday draw to pick the evening number, but I think it works best to keep the draws separate.   The results will frequently be similar so you can also play commonalities.  After doing it for a few days you'll get a feel of how best to play it.  Suggested bet is straight/box.

Here goes...

Use the last seven balls drawn - pick 3 and pick 4.

Example:  IL 8/28 Sat. Eve. results:  9-7-2  /  1-0-2-0

Write the digits out in sequence like this:

9,7,2,1,0,2,0

Go to this web page:  http://www.easycalculation.com/statistics/standard-deviation.php

Enter your seven digits into the field as shown above and calculate.  It will determine several results but what we are interested in is the last field, 'Variance (Population Standard Deviation)'.

Having done this, the result is  10.85.  We will round off to 11.  Use regular rounding-off rules.

Add this number (11) to the very last ball drawn, which in this case is '0', the last digit of the pick 4 game.

My worksheet looks like this:

9,7,2,1,0,2,0    (0 + 11 = 1)*    (*use lottery math)

In this example, digit '1' will be the first number of the next draw.

For the next digit we will revise our seven number digit set by eliminating the oldest ball drawn (first ball of the last pick 3 draw) which is '9' in the example, and adding the new number ('1') at the end of the series.

The new seven-digit series is

7,2,1,0,2,0,1

Calculate a new variance with your new seven-digit number set.  The result is 4.97 which we round off to 5.  We will add 5 to the first digit we created ('1').

Now my worksheet looks like this:

9,7,2,1,0,2,0    (0 + 11 = 1)
7,2,1,0,2,0,1    (1 +  5  = 6)

6 will be our second digit.

Repeat last step for third digit like so:

9,7,2,1,0,2,0    (0 + 11 =  1)
7,2,1,0,2,0,1    (1 +  5  =  6)
2,1,0,2,0,1,6    (6 +  4  =  0)

0 will be our 3rd digit.

That's all there is to it.  Our KEY number is 1-6-0.  For best results, use key number and one digit-up/one digit-down variations on the key number to fit your budget.  Here are ten variations as an example:


160 - 260 - 060 - 170 - 150 - 161 - 169 - 171 - 159 - 271



(note:  for the pick 4 game just continue the process four more times.  Not as reliable for pick 4.)

 

Good luck! 

Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


    Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
    FEMA Region V Camp #21
    United States
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    Posted: August 29, 2010, 1:59 pm - IP Logged

    Here is the formula for the mathematically inclined:

     

    Formula :

    Mean :Mean = Sum of X values / N(Number of values)

    Standard Deviation :
    standard deviation formula
    Population Standard Deviation :
    population standard deviation formula
    Variance : Variance = s2

    Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).



      United States
      Member #75358
      June 1, 2009
      5345 Posts
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      Posted: August 29, 2010, 2:27 pm - IP Logged

      [Note:  the formula I use and how I use it is results from trial and error only.  I don't claim it to be mathematically 'correct'.  It just works.]

      This is for states with a pick 3 AND pick 4 game that comes right after the pick 3 draw.

      You can use the midday draw to pick the evening number, but I think it works best to keep the draws separate.   The results will frequently be similar so you can also play commonalities.  After doing it for a few days you'll get a feel of how best to play it.  Suggested bet is straight/box.

      Here goes...

      Use the last seven balls drawn - pick 3 and pick 4.

      Example:  IL 8/28 Sat. Eve. results:  9-7-2  /  1-0-2-0

      Write the digits out in sequence like this:

      9,7,2,1,0,2,0

      Go to this web page:  http://www.easycalculation.com/statistics/standard-deviation.php

      Enter your seven digits into the field as shown above and calculate.  It will determine several results but what we are interested in is the last field, 'Variance (Population Standard Deviation)'.

      Having done this, the result is  10.85.  We will round off to 11.  Use regular rounding-off rules.

      Add this number (11) to the very last ball drawn, which in this case is '0', the last digit of the pick 4 game.

      My worksheet looks like this:

      9,7,2,1,0,2,0    (0 + 11 = 1)*    (*use lottery math)

      In this example, digit '1' will be the first number of the next draw.

      For the next digit we will revise our seven number digit set by eliminating the oldest ball drawn (first ball of the last pick 3 draw) which is '9' in the example, and adding the new number ('1') at the end of the series.

      The new seven-digit series is

      7,2,1,0,2,0,1

      Calculate a new variance with your new seven-digit number set.  The result is 4.97 which we round off to 5.  We will add 5 to the first digit we created ('1').

      Now my worksheet looks like this:

      9,7,2,1,0,2,0    (0 + 11 = 1)
      7,2,1,0,2,0,1    (1 +  5  = 6)

      6 will be our second digit.

      Repeat last step for third digit like so:

      9,7,2,1,0,2,0    (0 + 11 =  1)
      7,2,1,0,2,0,1    (1 +  5  =  6)
      2,1,0,2,0,1,6    (6 +  4  =  0)

      0 will be our 3rd digit.

      That's all there is to it.  Our KEY number is 1-6-0.  For best results, use key number and one digit-up/one digit-down variations on the key number to fit your budget.  Here are ten variations as an example:


      160 - 260 - 060 - 170 - 150 - 161 - 169 - 171 - 159 - 271



      (note:  for the pick 4 game just continue the process four more times.  Not as reliable for pick 4.)

       

      Good luck! 

      OM freakin GOD !

      Thanx Rick. To do a quick one day test and to practice, I picked an arbitrary date from Florida where I live and play the p-3. And it hit straight the next day.

      Florida9-9-79-8-50-0-0-94-2-6-9

      I used that date for no reason at all.

      Workout: Monday August 16th...... Mid p-3 and mid p-4----- 9,9,7,0,0,0,9

      9+18=7

      7+18=5

      5+15=0

      750-850-650-760-740-751-759-761-749-861

      Below is the next day's results...

      Tuesday, August 17....



      Florida2-2-77-5-91-2-4-16-3-5-3

      Either this was a one time fluke, or you're onto something...WOW!....Thanx Rick. I'll have to do some serious backtesting here. How often does this thing hit in your experience?



       


        United States
        Member #75358
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        Posted: August 29, 2010, 2:36 pm - IP Logged

        OM freakin GOD !

        Thanx Rick. To do a quick one day test and to practice, I picked an arbitrary date from Florida where I live and play the p-3. And it hit straight the next day.

        Florida9-9-79-8-50-0-0-94-2-6-9

        I used that date for no reason at all.

        Workout: Monday August 16th...... Mid p-3 and mid p-4----- 9,9,7,0,0,0,9

        9+18=7

        7+18=5

        5+15=0

        750-850-650-760-740-751-759-761-749-861

        Below is the next day's results...

        Tuesday, August 17....



        Florida2-2-77-5-91-2-4-16-3-5-3

        Either this was a one time fluke, or you're onto something...WOW!....Thanx Rick. I'll have to do some serious backtesting here. How often does this thing hit in your experience?



         

        Nevermind. I made a mistake in my calculations.

        9+18=7

        7+16=3

        6+13=9

        739   839   639   749   729   730   738   740   728   840

        Close though....lol


          United States
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          Posted: August 29, 2010, 2:43 pm - IP Logged

          Nevermind. I made a mistake in my calculations.

          9+18=7

          7+16=3

          6+13=9

          739   839   639   749   729   730   738   740   728   840

          Close though....lol

          Also, I messed up by using the mid stats and looked at the next day's eve for the reuslts. You said to keep it at mid to mid, but in this case, the eve results matched better...lol

          I'll have to do an extensive test to see which one works better in Florida.

          I hope someone here can put all of this into a plug and play program, it would make back testing a lot easier...lol


            United States
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            Posted: August 29, 2010, 2:49 pm - IP Logged

            Boy oh boy....ha ha ha...

            I totally messed up the second step. I went back and re-read step two, adding the new number to the first new number we calculated. I didn't do that in my first attempt.

            I'll get...lol

              Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
              FEMA Region V Camp #21
              United States
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              Posted: August 29, 2010, 2:50 pm - IP Logged

              Joker, it works both ways, combining draws or separate.  I hit a straight the other day with my key number using midday-to-midday results and have hit a couple boxes with variations on the key in about a week's play.  It usually comes close.

              Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).



                United States
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                Posted: August 29, 2010, 2:59 pm - IP Logged

                Joker, it works both ways, combining draws or separate.  I hit a straight the other day with my key number using midday-to-midday results and have hit a couple boxes with variations on the key in about a week's play.  It usually comes close.

                Ok, good deal. Straight hit huh?...nice

                Ok, I think I did it right this time. I did yesterday's Florida mid results for today's mid and it was one off.

                The reults from yesterday were....488   588   388   498   748   489   487   499   477   599.

                Today's mid winner was 467...oh so close...lol

                Maybe I should do a plus and minus 2 for each number in addition to the 1+ and 1-, that you have.

                  MdLot66's avatar - lightbulb
                  Bel Air,Md
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                  Posted: August 29, 2010, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

                  Rick- this is truly nice work, I came up with a 075 key number for Maryland (my state) for tonight's draw. I just want to be clear on one thing, when you say "use lottery math" does that mean since we can't go outside 0-9 then we would add the digits of the sum to get the digit, or would be just use the last digit of the sum? Thanks so much for this revelation, I am looking forward to testing this out for a while!!

                    Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                    FEMA Region V Camp #21
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                    Posted: August 29, 2010, 3:13 pm - IP Logged

                    Rick- this is truly nice work, I came up with a 075 key number for Maryland (my state) for tonight's draw. I just want to be clear on one thing, when you say "use lottery math" does that mean since we can't go outside 0-9 then we would add the digits of the sum to get the digit, or would be just use the last digit of the sum? Thanks so much for this revelation, I am looking forward to testing this out for a while!!

                    Thank you, MdLot66.  Just use last digit of the sum.  eg, 9+5= 14.  Use # 4.

                    Good luck with the 075 tonight!

                    Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                      Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                      FEMA Region V Camp #21
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                      Posted: August 29, 2010, 3:31 pm - IP Logged

                      Ok, good deal. Straight hit huh?...nice

                      Ok, I think I did it right this time. I did yesterday's Florida mid results for today's mid and it was one off.

                      The reults from yesterday were....488   588   388   498   748   489   487   499   477   599.

                      Today's mid winner was 467...oh so close...lol

                      Maybe I should do a plus and minus 2 for each number in addition to the 1+ and 1-, that you have.

                      Joker, yes if you have the budget, the next step would be +2/-2. 

                      "oh so close..."  I've said that many times using this.

                      Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                        MdLot66's avatar - lightbulb
                        Bel Air,Md
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                        Posted: August 29, 2010, 3:32 pm - IP Logged

                        I appreciate that, good luck to you also. So far, using random points earlier this year and last, your system has been either dead on, or within a couple digits here and there. You can't ask for a better place to start than that!! Take care and thanks again

                          Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                          FEMA Region V Camp #21
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                          Posted: August 29, 2010, 3:39 pm - IP Logged

                          I appreciate that, good luck to you also. So far, using random points earlier this year and last, your system has been either dead on, or within a couple digits here and there. You can't ask for a better place to start than that!! Take care and thanks again

                          Thumbs Up

                          Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).



                            United States
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                            Posted: August 29, 2010, 3:46 pm - IP Logged

                            Joker, yes if you have the budget, the next step would be +2/-2. 

                            "oh so close..."  I've said that many times using this.

                            Yep, that's why I need to know whether it's that close most of the time or not, because then the word budget won't even be used by me...lol

                            Even if I do a +3 and -3 in addition to the plus and minus one, and plus2 and minus 2, and it costs me 30 bucks to play, If it hits 80% of the time, then the payout would outweigh the cost.

                              Dead_Aim's avatar - canstock2002989

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                              Posted: August 29, 2010, 3:47 pm - IP Logged

                              Thank you Rick! Awesome info as always.

                              Don't Chase... Compare and Narrow

                              The Cheaper the Cost the Higher the Profit

                              Many Winners to You.

                              D_A