RJOH

I once read in the Bible that God caused a ass to speak. I though it was fable but now think it could

be Quite true. My wife has a system of hitting 2 or 3 numbers on one line with about 75% hit rate.

The odds for any one drawing are for selecting a set at random, does this mean that if the set is not

selected at random the odds do not apply? Way back, when I first studied statistics it was used by

applying certian data to the masses. If it is used to calculate a single event or small sample then it is

very often missleading. A simple coin toss can explain this. The odds are 50/50 not counting the

chance that it could land on it's edge, but it is quite possible for 10 heads up to appear in 10 tosses.

Given that each toss has a 50/50 chance and that the expected average for 10 tosses would be 50%

heads and 50% tails +/- some deviation then 10 straight heads would lead me to think that some

sort of unknown exist within the method of tossing the coin. This could easily be explained away by

using probability but the exact cause could never be proven. The number of unknown variables that

could effect the outcome of the toss could never be known. However these same unknown variables

creat a bias for one outcome verses the other. Certain people do not understand what they think they

know so well. I like the Wikipedia definition of Probability "A way of expressing knowledge or belief

that an event will or has occurred. To draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the

underlying mechanics of complex systems." The words "Belief and likelihood" are the kickers here. The

only true measure of any method would be if the outcome beats the predicted odds for the event. The

results you posted have done this. This would be the end of the story for most but not for those fooled

by the "fooled by randomness" joke. Just as probability was meant to be used as a tool to help give

some idea of an event happening, the fooled by randomness is a poor excuse that is used when the

results don't match the expected outcome. Ping pong balls bouncing off one another and air being

used to blow the balls around have nothing to do with selecting the numbers for the next drawing. The

balls have no memory but who cares as it has nothing to with selecting numbers. I have seen numbers

go more then 100 draws without hitting. We that pick or own numbers are not predicting what will

happen but rather play what we think or beleive will happen. Those that beleive that they can predict

that the numbers we play will fail are the ones that should take a good look at just what they are saying

and how two faced it really is.

RL