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Stack47

Kentucky
United States
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February 14, 2006
10,302 Posts
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Nov 1, 2010, 6:56 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Oct 27, 2010
When I said likely, I simply meant that they weren't part of the unlikely group that would match four of previous drawn combinations which I observed only came up 1% of the time in a 649 game. As I said before those combinations are just a drop in the bucket when you consider there are almost 14 millions possible combinations even though there are 13545 possible combinations that would match4 for every combination of 6 drawn.

When dealing that many possible combinations, there are always going to be some assumptions which is probably why so many players prefer pick3 games with only a 1000 possible combinations.

According to my Classic Lotto statistics four numbers from the previous drawing have never been drawn so you could safely say it's highly unlikely any combination using four of those numbers will be drawn in the next drawing. Three numbers only repeated 10 times out of the 573 drawings I tested so a 1.7% chance is unlikely too. Four numbers from the previous two drawings are at a 1.9% chance too. Six numbers from the previous 4 drawings have only hit twice and five numbers were drawn 16 or 2.8%.

If you're looking for something more likely to hit, three number from the previous 4 drawings are hitting at a 50% rate. That still leaves over 4 million combos, but that is a starting point.

With jackpots in the $5 to $10 million range, one only has to hit once to have a life changing event so only a fool would expect your system or any system to pick the right combo in every drawing. A pessimist will say we shouldn't eliminate any number because every number has a chance to be drawn, which is true but they only draw six numbers so it's not only unlikely but impossible for 43 of the numbers to be drawn every drawing. A system has to start somewhere and eliminating numbers and/or combs is a logical choice.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Nov 2, 2010, 12:55 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Nov 1, 2010
According to my Classic Lotto statistics four numbers from the previous drawing have never been drawn so you could safely say it's highly unlikely any combination using four of those numbers will be drawn in the next drawing. Three numbers only repeated 10 times out of the 573 drawings I tested so a 1.7% chance is unlikely too. Four numbers from the previous two drawings are at a 1.9% chance too. Six numbers from the previous 4 drawings have only hit twice and five numbers were drawn 16 or 2.8%.

If you're looking for something more likely to hit, three number from the previous 4 drawings are hitting at a 50% rate. That still leaves over 4 million combos, but that is a starting point.

With jackpots in the $5 to $10 million range, one only has to hit once to have a life changing event so only a fool would expect your system or any system to pick the right combo in every drawing. A pessimist will say we shouldn't eliminate any number because every number has a chance to be drawn, which is true but they only draw six numbers so it's not only unlikely but impossible for 43 of the numbers to be drawn every drawing. A system has to start somewhere and eliminating numbers and/or combs is a logical choice.

Tonight jackpot was raised to $12.8M, that's $6.4M cash or $425K+ yearly which is 10x my pension and SS so I could live with that. I could spend $5K weekly and have money left over.

I liked the numbers I picked tonight, only match 3 once with 20 lines but had I narrowed my selections to just the main group of numbers I selected I might have done better since all 6 winning numbers were in that group. Tonight's numbers didn't change the distribution of the numbers very much so I'll be trying Wednesday what I wish I had done Monday. Until MegaMillions get back up to $50M+, I'll probably just play Classic Lotto until someone wins it, hope it's me.

I had my program to do a search for the 2 winning combinations you mentioned with 6 numbers that had hit in the previous 4 drawings.

12/20/08 - 06 14 29 31 36 43
02/19/07 - 03 19 21 29 46 47

I was surprised to see that also 13 combinations had 5 numbers, 68 combinations had 4 numbers and 191 combinations had 3 numbers that hit in the previous 4 drawings and the number pool size was 15-24. That calculates out to a 47% chance of having at least three of the winning numbers if you used the 15-24 numbers in the previous 4 drawings.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
jimmy4164

United States
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July 10, 2010
2,180 Posts
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Nov 2, 2010, 2:32 am

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on Nov 1, 2010
RJOH

I once read in the Bible that God caused a ass to speak. I though it was fable but now think it could

be Quite true. My wife has a system of hitting 2 or 3 numbers on one line with about 75% hit rate.

The odds for any one drawing are for selecting a set at random, does this mean that if the set is not

selected at random the odds do not apply? Way back, when I first studied statistics it was used by

applying certian data to the masses. If it is used to calculate a single event or small sample then it is

very often missleading. A simple coin toss can explain this. The odds are 50/50 not counting the

chance that it could land on it's edge, but it is quite possible for 10 heads up to appear in 10 tosses.

Given that each toss has a 50/50 chance and that the expected average for 10 tosses would be 50%

heads and 50% tails +/- some deviation then 10 straight heads would lead me to think that some

sort of unknown exist within the method of tossing the coin. This could easily be explained away by

using probability but the exact cause could never be proven. The number of unknown variables that

could effect the outcome of the toss could never be known. However these same unknown variables

creat a bias for one outcome verses the other. Certain people do not understand what they think they

know so well. I like the Wikipedia definition of Probability "A way of expressing knowledge or belief

that an event will or has occurred. To draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the

underlying mechanics of complex systems." The words "Belief and likelihood" are the kickers here. The

only true measure of any method would be if the outcome beats the predicted odds for the event. The

results you posted have done this. This would be the end of the story for most but not for those fooled

by the "fooled by randomness" joke. Just as probability was meant to be used as a tool to help give

some idea of an event happening, the fooled by randomness is a poor excuse that is used when the

results don't match the expected outcome. Ping pong balls bouncing off one another and air being

used to blow the balls around have nothing to do with selecting the numbers for the next drawing. The

balls have no memory but who cares as it has nothing to with selecting numbers. I have seen numbers

go more then 100 draws without hitting. We that pick or own numbers are not predicting what will

happen but rather play what we think or beleive will happen. Those that beleive that they can predict

that the numbers we play will fail are the ones that should take a good look at just what they are saying

and how two faced it really is.

RL

"We that pick or own numbers are not predicting what will happen but rather play what we think or beleive will happen."

Hhhhmmmm...
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Nov 2, 2010, 2:24 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on Nov 1, 2010
RJOH

I once read in the Bible that God caused a ass to speak. I though it was fable but now think it could

be Quite true. My wife has a system of hitting 2 or 3 numbers on one line with about 75% hit rate.

The odds for any one drawing are for selecting a set at random, does this mean that if the set is not

selected at random the odds do not apply? Way back, when I first studied statistics it was used by

applying certian data to the masses. If it is used to calculate a single event or small sample then it is

very often missleading. A simple coin toss can explain this. The odds are 50/50 not counting the

chance that it could land on it's edge, but it is quite possible for 10 heads up to appear in 10 tosses.

Given that each toss has a 50/50 chance and that the expected average for 10 tosses would be 50%

heads and 50% tails +/- some deviation then 10 straight heads would lead me to think that some

sort of unknown exist within the method of tossing the coin. This could easily be explained away by

using probability but the exact cause could never be proven. The number of unknown variables that

could effect the outcome of the toss could never be known. However these same unknown variables

creat a bias for one outcome verses the other. Certain people do not understand what they think they

know so well. I like the Wikipedia definition of Probability "A way of expressing knowledge or belief

that an event will or has occurred. To draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the

underlying mechanics of complex systems." The words "Belief and likelihood" are the kickers here. The

only true measure of any method would be if the outcome beats the predicted odds for the event. The

results you posted have done this. This would be the end of the story for most but not for those fooled

by the "fooled by randomness" joke. Just as probability was meant to be used as a tool to help give

some idea of an event happening, the fooled by randomness is a poor excuse that is used when the

results don't match the expected outcome. Ping pong balls bouncing off one another and air being

used to blow the balls around have nothing to do with selecting the numbers for the next drawing. The

balls have no memory but who cares as it has nothing to with selecting numbers. I have seen numbers

go more then 100 draws without hitting. We that pick or own numbers are not predicting what will

happen but rather play what we think or beleive will happen. Those that beleive that they can predict

that the numbers we play will fail are the ones that should take a good look at just what they are saying

and how two faced it really is.

RL

I look at lottery predictions as an attempt to forecast lottery drawing results before the actual drawing based on past results, statistics and anything else that one thinks will help. At LP predictions are done for entertainment and as a hobby and is not meant to be taken to the bank regardless of the seriousness of the predictors. Playing and discussing the lotteries is a form of entertainment to me.

When some predictors post over 5000 combinations a day and are lucky to have even 1% of them score a low level prize that should tell you that they aren't playing all their predictions and neither should you.

I enjoy picking my own combinations to play and I usually post the first 10 on the prediction board just for my entertainment and bragging rights and to see how I compare with others doing the same thing but they aren't meant to be a guide for what others should be playing.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
time*treat

United States
Member #13,130
March 30, 2005
2,171 Posts
Offline

Nov 3, 2010, 5:56 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Nov 2, 2010
Tonight jackpot was raised to $12.8M, that's $6.4M cash or $425K+ yearly which is 10x my pension and SS so I could live with that. I could spend $5K weekly and have money left over.

I liked the numbers I picked tonight, only match 3 once with 20 lines but had I narrowed my selections to just the main group of numbers I selected I might have done better since all 6 winning numbers were in that group. Tonight's numbers didn't change the distribution of the numbers very much so I'll be trying Wednesday what I wish I had done Monday. Until MegaMillions get back up to $50M+, I'll probably just play Classic Lotto until someone wins it, hope it's me.

I had my program to do a search for the 2 winning combinations you mentioned with 6 numbers that had hit in the previous 4 drawings.

12/20/08 - 06 14 29 31 36 43
02/19/07 - 03 19 21 29 46 47

I was surprised to see that also 13 combinations had 5 numbers, 68 combinations had 4 numbers and 191 combinations had 3 numbers that hit in the previous 4 drawings and the number pool size was 15-24. That calculates out to a 47% chance of having at least three of the winning numbers if you used the 15-24 numbers in the previous 4 drawings.

"I liked the numbers I picked tonight ..."

Yeah, but will you still respect them after tonight's drawing?

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Nov 4, 2010, 11:49 pm

Quote: Originally posted by time*treat on Nov 3, 2010
"I liked the numbers I picked tonight ..."

Yeah, but will you still respect them after tonight's drawing?

All the winning numbers were in the mix, I just failed to get more than three of them on the same line so I can't blame them.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *

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