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How do they decide what a games odds should be?

Topic closed. 5 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Mayday.

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United States
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September 22, 2010
321 Posts
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 Posted: January 8, 2011, 3:53 am - IP Logged

I found this on the web the other day, but I don't remember exactly where. I will provide the link if I find it. Go ahead and read it and see what you think.  I know that all numbers do have an equal chance of being drawn, but they do sometimes follow short term trends. I never did believe that quick-picks were designed with the players best intentions in mind. I wonder if they set the machines to put out QP combinations at different times, that are more or less likely to win, in order to achieve their goals of a large jackpot, without players growing too impatient.

Since sales typically rise when jackpots are large, designers of lotto games attempt to choose formats that produce occasional rollovers, which means tailoring the format (and probability of having a winner) to the size of the betting population. Choosing a probability that is too low results in having too many consecutive drawings without a winner, which causes players to become discouraged. Choosing a probability that is too high results in very few rollovers, and multiple winners, thus diluting the size of grand prizes. In the design of lotto games, there is an inherent advantage in drawing from a large population, which makes it possible for the game designer to choose small-probability formats, thus producing large jackpots.

Saturn
United States
Member #82529
November 15, 2009
34 Posts
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 Posted: January 10, 2011, 3:53 am - IP Logged

Qp's are done with a random  number generator and  I don't think the State would  go as far as to inform the company that runs it's lottery to either EMIT or ENTER more certain (numbers  or combination of numbers) on its QP's based on  it believes certain numbers or combinations are in a TREND in order raise the Jackpot levels..(Example.. State X tells company don't sell to many of Qp's with combination ABC because these numbers are in a trend and we need to get this Jackpot up to 50 million.The odds of a particular game are the sAme for everyone. Does a person have a better chance of winning a Mega Millions Jackpot because he/she is a professor from Havard than say a janitor? the answer is No.

Hit me back with the  amount of numbers in your state lottery lotto pool and how many number have to be drawn and Il tell you how to calculate the odds

NY State
United States
Member #92609
June 10, 2010
3709 Posts
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 Posted: January 11, 2011, 9:23 am - IP Logged

I found this on the web the other day, but I don't remember exactly where. I will provide the link if I find it. Go ahead and read it and see what you think.  I know that all numbers do have an equal chance of being drawn, but they do sometimes follow short term trends. I never did believe that quick-picks were designed with the players best intentions in mind. I wonder if they set the machines to put out QP combinations at different times, that are more or less likely to win, in order to achieve their goals of a large jackpot, without players growing too impatient.

Since sales typically rise when jackpots are large, designers of lotto games attempt to choose formats that produce occasional rollovers, which means tailoring the format (and probability of having a winner) to the size of the betting population. Choosing a probability that is too low results in having too many consecutive drawings without a winner, which causes players to become discouraged. Choosing a probability that is too high results in very few rollovers, and multiple winners, thus diluting the size of grand prizes. In the design of lotto games, there is an inherent advantage in drawing from a large population, which makes it possible for the game designer to choose small-probability formats, thus producing large jackpots.

If you Google "how to calculate lottery odds"  the search will return websites that will automatically calculate the odds for any game anywhere.

It will also return websites that explain how the odd's are calculated, that's if you are inclined to do it yourself.

Any lottery that tampered with a random number generator program would be a huge no-no and would make national headlines/news if they were caught doing it.  That kind of news would be all over the TV from coast to coast.

Consider The State of New York.  NY operates one of the largest (if not the largest) and most profitable lottery's in The USA.  If NY tampered with the random number generator program to put out QP's that are less likely to win, and that fact was uncovered by KPMG (The NY Lottery's independent auditor) it would completely destroy the NY Lottery because players in NY would no longer trust the lottery and would stop playing.  I dont think The State of NY wants to do anything so foolish as to kill the cash cow they currently operate, do you?

About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7325 Posts
Online
 Posted: January 13, 2011, 12:18 pm - IP Logged

I found this on the web the other day, but I don't remember exactly where. I will provide the link if I find it. Go ahead and read it and see what you think.  I know that all numbers do have an equal chance of being drawn, but they do sometimes follow short term trends. I never did believe that quick-picks were designed with the players best intentions in mind. I wonder if they set the machines to put out QP combinations at different times, that are more or less likely to win, in order to achieve their goals of a large jackpot, without players growing too impatient.

Since sales typically rise when jackpots are large, designers of lotto games attempt to choose formats that produce occasional rollovers, which means tailoring the format (and probability of having a winner) to the size of the betting population. Choosing a probability that is too low results in having too many consecutive drawings without a winner, which causes players to become discouraged. Choosing a probability that is too high results in very few rollovers, and multiple winners, thus diluting the size of grand prizes. In the design of lotto games, there is an inherent advantage in drawing from a large population, which makes it possible for the game designer to choose small-probability formats, thus producing large jackpots.

A good example is the 5/39 Illinois Lil Lotto and Ohio Rolling Cash 5 where the jackpots roll. Coin Toss has all the Lil Lotto details in the Pick 5 forum.

NY State
United States
Member #92609
June 10, 2010
3709 Posts
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 Posted: January 14, 2011, 9:51 am - IP Logged

I found this on the web the other day, but I don't remember exactly where. I will provide the link if I find it. Go ahead and read it and see what you think.  I know that all numbers do have an equal chance of being drawn, but they do sometimes follow short term trends. I never did believe that quick-picks were designed with the players best intentions in mind. I wonder if they set the machines to put out QP combinations at different times, that are more or less likely to win, in order to achieve their goals of a large jackpot, without players growing too impatient.

Since sales typically rise when jackpots are large, designers of lotto games attempt to choose formats that produce occasional rollovers, which means tailoring the format (and probability of having a winner) to the size of the betting population. Choosing a probability that is too low results in having too many consecutive drawings without a winner, which causes players to become discouraged. Choosing a probability that is too high results in very few rollovers, and multiple winners, thus diluting the size of grand prizes. In the design of lotto games, there is an inherent advantage in drawing from a large population, which makes it possible for the game designer to choose small-probability formats, thus producing large jackpots.

"too many consecutive drawings without a winner, which causes players to become discouraged" (I would add the following words to that sentence; and thus boycott the game.)

That's exactly what's going on up here in snowy New York with New York's Sweet Millions 6/40 game.

I'm not sure where you're located Carhauler, therefore what I'm about to write is something that would have no direct effect on you as a lottery player.  Those of us regular lottery players living in the state New York are keenly aware of the situation with Sweet Millions.  Sales of SM tickets are lousy as hardly anyone will play it.

SM was introduced in September of 2009.  The design of the game is as follows; It's drawn twice per week, and it has the best odds of winning a million dollars. (3,838,380 : 1)  The jackpot is not pari-mutuel for the first 5 winners.  (if there were 5 or more JP winners, then it does become pari-mutuel)  Lower tier prizes are \$500 for 5 numbers, \$40 for 4 numbers, and \$3 for 3 numbers. (I know, those prizes arent too good. Especially second place which should be a lot more than a crummy \$500 for matching 5 numbers.)  The JP does not rollover if there are no JP winners. (Another feature of the game that bothers players.)

It's not uncommon for 12 or 13 consecutive weeks of drawings (24 - 26 drawings) to go by without a JP being won. And lemme tell ya, that P.O's players bigtime.  The State of New York said the reason for so few JP's being won is a "coverage" problem. (Fewer than 8% of the 3,838,380 possible combinations of 6 numbers are sold for each drawing, leaving 92% of the possible combo's unsold.)  Given that fact, I dont wonder why there havent been many JP winners.  But I still play the game anyway, just because of the low odd's to win a million bucks.  My question is: Will the State of New York pull the game off the market due to lousy ticket sales?

If ticket sales were higher due to more people buying SM tickets, there'd be more JP winners.  But the people wont play, so less tickets are sold, and fewer JP's are won.  It's a vicious circle. It's kind of a sad situation if you ask me. Take a spin on the Internet and look around on each states lottery website. You wont find many million dollar games with odds as low as SM's.

About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

Saturn
United States
Member #82529
November 15, 2009
34 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 14, 2011, 7:31 pm - IP Logged

"too many consecutive drawings without a winner, which causes players to become discouraged" (I would add the following words to that sentence; and thus boycott the game.)

That's exactly what's going on up here in snowy New York with New York's Sweet Millions 6/40 game.

I'm not sure where you're located Carhauler, therefore what I'm about to write is something that would have no direct effect on you as a lottery player.  Those of us regular lottery players living in the state New York are keenly aware of the situation with Sweet Millions.  Sales of SM tickets are lousy as hardly anyone will play it.

SM was introduced in September of 2009.  The design of the game is as follows; It's drawn twice per week, and it has the best odds of winning a million dollars. (3,838,380 : 1)  The jackpot is not pari-mutuel for the first 5 winners.  (if there were 5 or more JP winners, then it does become pari-mutuel)  Lower tier prizes are \$500 for 5 numbers, \$40 for 4 numbers, and \$3 for 3 numbers. (I know, those prizes arent too good. Especially second place which should be a lot more than a crummy \$500 for matching 5 numbers.)  The JP does not rollover if there are no JP winners. (Another feature of the game that bothers players.)

It's not uncommon for 12 or 13 consecutive weeks of drawings (24 - 26 drawings) to go by without a JP being won. And lemme tell ya, that P.O's players bigtime.  The State of New York said the reason for so few JP's being won is a "coverage" problem. (Fewer than 8% of the 3,838,380 possible combinations of 6 numbers are sold for each drawing, leaving 92% of the possible combo's unsold.)  Given that fact, I dont wonder why there havent been many JP winners.  But I still play the game anyway, just because of the low odd's to win a million bucks.  My question is: Will the State of New York pull the game off the market due to lousy ticket sales?

If ticket sales were higher due to more people buying SM tickets, there'd be more JP winners.  But the people wont play, so less tickets are sold, and fewer JP's are won.  It's a vicious circle. It's kind of a sad situation if you ask me. Take a spin on the Internet and look around on each states lottery website. You wont find many million dollar games with odds as low as SM's.

I took a glance @ the NY SM Game .

Heres a couple of things I noticed

1. of the last 24 numbers drawn and I think you can go back a little further the last digit of any number drawn ,18 have had a last digit of 0-5.example(1-5)(10-15)(20-25)(30-35) Will the trend break quickly and for a long period of time,will it break for a short time and then go back to lows,will it be gradual ?

2. The numbers between (30-39) over the last 13 draws seem to average almost 2 per draw,,(The Louisana lotto is also a 6/40 game and at this time is only averaging about 1 number between (30-39)

3 The number 40 has only come up 4-5 times in the last 20 draws ( if I only omited the number 40 from the game and only played combinations between 1-39 I drop my odds from 3,838,380  to 3,262,623 ,by doing that I have already omited (575757combonations)about 16.5 % of the  possible combinations

Hers a few numbers I like 3,4,10, 12,,37

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