$304,000,000 Mega Millions has just rolled over to...Prev Topic Next Topic

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What ? (assuming a rollover Friday)

$365,000,000

[ 8 ]

[ 21.0% ]

$375,000,000

[ 5 ]

[ 13.2% ]

$385,000,000

[ 5 ]

[ 13.2% ]

$390,000,000

[ 3 ]

[ 7.9% ]

$400,000,000 (a new record)

[ 9 ]

[ 23.7% ]

$410,000,000

[ 1 ]

[ 2.6% ]

$415,000,000

[ 1 ]

[ 2.6% ]

$420,000,000

[ 2 ]

[ 5.3% ]

$425,000,000

[ 0 ]

[ 0.0% ]

$430,000,000

[ 4 ]

[ 10.5% ]

Total valid votes

[ 38 ]

Discarded votes

[ 2 ]

GuessWhat!

United States
Member #21,573
September 11, 2005
141 Posts
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Mar 23, 2011, 2:15 am

or something else ?

Post your prediction or range of annuitized values.
JWBlue

San Diego, CA
United States
Member #58,384
February 12, 2008
335 Posts
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Mar 23, 2011, 2:45 am

The last time the jackpot was $242 million on 12.31.10, the initial announced jackpot was $290 million. Due to sales, it ended up being $380 million. Sales were about $230,000,000 which covered all the numbers.

I am guessing this one closes at $385,000,000.

So the next one I am guessing will be $500,000,000.

I don't think it will roll though. $300,000,000 is the magic number for just about a guarnateed winner.
Longarm

DFW, Texas
United States
Member #78,626
August 18, 2009
134 Posts
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Mar 23, 2011, 3:42 am

A bit of quick, possibly incomplete, research shows that Powerball has rolled at 300 and 305, but that Mega Millions has not rolled from an amount over 300 million. History indicates that it will probably be won Friday, and also indicates that the amount is likely to rise before then.

In the $242,000,000 draw in January (the one before it went to 380), there were 21 second-prize winners. Tonight there were 26 people who were off only by the Mega Ball.

I wouldn't want to try to predict next Tuesday's jackpot in the event of a roll until I knew the final amount of Friday's jackpot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it over a half-billion. Even if I knew Friday's final amount, it would be uncharted territory. In January it increased from 242 to 380 in one cycle, $138,000,000. It would increase at least that much from the high 300s, which is where it may be headed, and that would put it over 500. If the post-Friday increase is 1.6 times the January increase, that would be 220 million. If you add that to a Friday final jackpot of 380 million, that takes it to 600 million.

For perspective, in January's draw, the "if nobody wins" amount was anounced as $480,000,000. The amount in the March 6, 2007 draw for $390,000,000 (with a lower cash value than January's) was $470,000,000.
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,772 Posts
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Mar 23, 2011, 4:12 am

The history of huge jackpots isn't extensive enough to tell us very much about rollovers. Probability, OTOH, tells us what's likely with a fair amount of precision, but unlikely things can still happen. If sales are limited to the current advertised jackpot amount the chances of a winner(s) or a rollover are fairly even, probably with a slight preference for a winner.

If sales push it to the 380 range that could mean selling about 80% of the possible combinations. That would still mean a 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 chance of a rollover. For MM jackpots over $300 million we should expect that out of 5 to 7 jackpots that big we should expect 4 to 6 wins and 1 rollover once we have that much history to look at.

If it rolls tomorrow the PB jackpot may reduce MM sales a bit, and increase the chance of another rollover. If MM climbs to 360 and rolls we would expect the next roll to also add at least 120 to the advertised jackpot, which would mean about 480. If it goes to 380 and rolls we should expect an absolute minimum of 520. I expect people would go completely crazy at that point and push it at least 50 million higher. That would put the cash value somewhere past 350. And even then there would still be about a 10% chance it would roll again.
AuntiePat

Just outside of Cleveland, OH
United States
Member #54,077
August 3, 2007
106 Posts
Offline

Mar 23, 2011, 6:09 am

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Mar 23, 2011
The history of huge jackpots isn't extensive enough to tell us very much about rollovers. Probability, OTOH, tells us what's likely with a fair amount of precision, but unlikely things can still happen. If sales are limited to the current advertised jackpot amount the chances of a winner(s) or a rollover are fairly even, probably with a slight preference for a winner.

If sales push it to the 380 range that could mean selling about 80% of the possible combinations. That would still mean a 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 chance of a rollover. For MM jackpots over $300 million we should expect that out of 5 to 7 jackpots that big we should expect 4 to 6 wins and 1 rollover once we have that much history to look at.

If it rolls tomorrow the PB jackpot may reduce MM sales a bit, and increase the chance of another rollover. If MM climbs to 360 and rolls we would expect the next roll to also add at least 120 to the advertised jackpot, which would mean about 480. If it goes to 380 and rolls we should expect an absolute minimum of 520. I expect people would go completely crazy at that point and push it at least 50 million higher. That would put the cash value somewhere past 350. And even then there would still be about a 10% chance it would roll again.

Yoicks, Floyd . . . If all possible combinations have been covered, isn't it possible some syndicate will have worked that out and purchased a tkt in every possible combination--of course, that wouldn't make sense to me as there would be too little return on the expense, especially on the outside chance that I would have to share it, therefore eradicating the possibility of breaking even. Nonetheless . . . a cash value of 350M . . . wow, serious green. Still trying to catch my breath.
joshuacloak

United States
Member #32,536
February 12, 2006
711 Posts
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Mar 23, 2011, 7:06 am

first off this belongs in Jackpot Forum, that where mm and pb Topics go,we are talking about mm

if its about spending insane amounts, in normaly in here thro....

(assuming a rollover Friday)

first off the low bowing the current amount, and it could reach 360m Just by draw time easy.

Tuesday, January 04, 2011 $380 Million

Friday, December 31, 2010
$242 Million

that run had 4 days to sell, we only have 3 days total of sells before draw, so it be lower then 380m, but not more then about 1/4th lower

2nd, if it does roll, it have 4 days to sell, marketed as high 400m to 500m jackpot

in short it end up over half a billion, your poll is So flawed , 430,000,000, max pck? ha, it be at lest 530m before all said in done and we have our draw

the jackpot fever in 41 states at a all time record, you can Bet on it.

but everyone is right, the odds are Now vastly agiant a other roll over,

hell we could have 2 winners, like what happened with 380m jackpot we had to months ago Even

thro if pulls off a rare Ninja disappearing act come Draw time, and rolls, Wow, i fear for my lottery budget, as budget goes out the window and i buy like 50 bucks worth, for a half a billion jackpot LOL

powerball jackpot cash record is 177.3m

we already past it at 193.6, must likly 220m by draw time

powerball can't touch this MM jackpot :P
sully16

25

Ringleader

Michigan
United States
Member #81,738
October 28, 2009
128,350 Posts
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Mar 23, 2011, 8:00 am

Spring fever and lottery fever, can't wait for friday.
dallascowboyfan

Oklahoma
United States
Member #82,389
November 12, 2009
6,374 Posts
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Mar 23, 2011, 8:14 am

Friday Jackpot......Bring it on!!!!!TGIF......
Todd

50

Chief Bottle Washer

New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
27,938 Posts
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Mar 23, 2011, 9:41 am

<Moved to Jackpot Games forum>
Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.
Prob988

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
963 Posts
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Mar 23, 2011, 10:50 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JWBlue on Mar 23, 2011
The last time the jackpot was $242 million on 12.31.10, the initial announced jackpot was $290 million. Due to sales, it ended up being $380 million. Sales were about $230,000,000 which covered all the numbers.

I am guessing this one closes at $385,000,000.

So the next one I am guessing will be $500,000,000.

I don't think it will roll though. $300,000,000 is the magic number for just about a guarnateed winner.

It did not cover all the numbers.

The odds are about 1 in 176,000,000. Suppose that exactly half of 176 million tickets, 88,000,000 million are sold, and you are buying the next ticket with no information about which combinations are covered. Suppose too that through a miracle (which never occurs by the way) no combination is covered twice. Then the odds of buying a ticket that is not covered are one in two.

On a deeper level, this fact is covered by what is known as a Poisson distribution. Using it, one can show that the last drawing to reach 380M annuity had about one quarter of the combinations uncovered.

Even if the lottery sold 400,000,000 Megamillions tickets, the odds would still be close to one in ten that another rollover would occur.
scorpio

United States
Member #9,579
December 12, 2004
2,121 Posts
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Mar 24, 2011, 10:05 pm

rolling over makes a lot of losers.my nephew unemployed,got a job at a quick stop and bought 5 dollars of quickpicks.he won 10,000 dollars,around 6300 after taxes.a happy camper he is.
ressuccess

United States
Member #93,160
June 23, 2010
3,141 Posts
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Mar 25, 2011, 3:38 pm

My vote is $400 million if nobody wins this one. Right now the Mega Millions Jackpot is $312 million. The Mega Millions Jackpot may rise depending on sales and if somebody wins the Mega Millions Jackpot.