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The Kelly Criterion

Topic closed. 1 reply. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
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Posted: March 30, 2011, 12:07 am - IP Logged

Back in August, jwhou started an interesting Topic on the Kelly Criterion and did some calculations applying it to Jackpot Lottery Games.  That Thread is now closed so I opened this one to draw attention to recent discussion of the concept by Don Catlin at Casino City Times.  He published the 2nd part of a 3 part series of articles on this subject early this month.  I think the 3rd part will be out early in April, giving you time to catch up.

The Kelly Criterion can be used to optimize your lottery winnings once you are able to estimate the probability of winning with your system.  As jwhou shows in the August Thread here at LP, it's somewhat problematic if the return on investment of your system is negative, but it's still worth taking a look at.

Here's jwhou's Kelly thread from August, 2010:

http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/219511

Don Catlin's Kelly Article Part I:

http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/taking-advantage-of-an-advantage-part-1-introduction-references-59483

Don Catlin's Kelly Article Part II:

http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/taking-advantage-of-an-advantage-part-2-how-not-to-59571

I'm using the Kelly Criterion formula as part of a calculation of Stock Position Size, and a variant of it to compute a score to assist in ranking stocks for selection.  I thought it would be interesting to see if Don Catlin's treatment of this concept might help someone optimize their lottery winnings.


    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
    2180 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 4, 2011, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

    Back in August, jwhou started an interesting Topic on the Kelly Criterion and did some calculations applying it to Jackpot Lottery Games.  That Thread is now closed so I opened this one to draw attention to recent discussion of the concept by Don Catlin at Casino City Times.  He published the 2nd part of a 3 part series of articles on this subject early this month.  I think the 3rd part will be out early in April, giving you time to catch up.

    The Kelly Criterion can be used to optimize your lottery winnings once you are able to estimate the probability of winning with your system.  As jwhou shows in the August Thread here at LP, it's somewhat problematic if the return on investment of your system is negative, but it's still worth taking a look at.

    Here's jwhou's Kelly thread from August, 2010:

    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/219511

    Don Catlin's Kelly Article Part I:

    http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/taking-advantage-of-an-advantage-part-1-introduction-references-59483

    Don Catlin's Kelly Article Part II:

    http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/taking-advantage-of-an-advantage-part-2-how-not-to-59571

    I'm using the Kelly Criterion formula as part of a calculation of Stock Position Size, and a variant of it to compute a score to assist in ranking stocks for selection.  I thought it would be interesting to see if Don Catlin's treatment of this concept might help someone optimize their lottery winnings.

    Don Catlin's Kelly Article Part III:

    http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/taking-advantage-of-an-advantage-part-3-à€“-kelly-betting-59646

    How confident are you in YOUR system? This might help you determine an optimal percentage of your stake to bet on each draw.