A Leisurely Look At Horses And Their Human AssociatesPrev TopicNext Topic

• jimmy4164

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  July 10, 2010
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  Apr 13, 2011, 1:32 am

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  This Thread is a continuation of another one here in Gaming in which I inserted an off topic question.  The Subject line is sort of what I have in mind for discussion here, given that I REALLY don't have time for another pursuit, but just can't forget past good times at the track.

  If you Click Here you can read the brief exchange Eddassaknight and I had in the other thread.  I will shortly insert a link there to loop you back here.

  Only minutes ago I finally installed H&R Block At Home on my computer, so I won't have much to contribute here until after the 4/15 deadline!

  Don't wait for me to chat this up!
• eddessaknight

  

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  November 22, 2006
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  Apr 14, 2011, 2:39 pm

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  In response to jimmy4164

  Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Apr 13, 2011

  This Thread is a continuation of another one here in Gaming in which I inserted an off topic question.  The Subject line is sort of what I have in mind for discussion here, given that I REALLY don't have time for another pursuit, but just can't forget past good times at the track.

  If you Click Here you can read the brief exchange Eddassaknight and I had in the other thread.  I will shortly insert a link there to loop you back here.

  Only minutes ago I finally installed H&R Block At Home on my computer, so I won't have much to contribute here until after the 4/15 deadline!

  Don't wait for me to chat this up!

  Jimmy,

  A quick thankx for linking up the thread, making it easier for the member to follow.

  Do understand the H&R Block imperative-

  I too for biz commitments am often off line & today will be in California,

  Good luck with Ceasre's Tax collectors

   

  EddessaKnight
• jimmy4164

  United States
  Member #93,943
  July 10, 2010
  2,180 Posts
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  Apr 17, 2011, 2:17 am

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  In response to eddessaknight

  Quote: Originally posted by eddessaknight on Apr 14, 2011

  Jimmy,

  A quick thankx for linking up the thread, making it easier for the member to follow.

  Do understand the H&R Block imperative-

  I too for biz commitments am often off line & today will be in California,

  Good luck with Ceasre's Tax collectors

   

  EddessaKnight

  Hi EddessaKnight,

  Wow!  A lot has transpired in the handicapping game since I made a foray into it years ago.  Among other things, I've discovered that my First Edition of Andy Beyer's Picking Winners is worth more than I originally paid for it!

  In my surfing tonight I also learned why you commented on my 5% winnings in the 70s.  Apparently, my guess that the state and track take was 12% was off by 5%, and that adding my 5 to their 17 means I remember beating it by 19%.  You're right in being impressed (or doubtful?)  :-)  My guess at the 5% number was based on discussions between me and my associate in later years, where we just guestimated what we might have cleared over the couple years we trekked to that harness track.  In reality, we could have lost 5%.  Whatever it was, it wasn't a lot either way.  The reason I think it was possible then, and maybe impossible nowadays, is the fact that Beyer's methods, several of which we employed, were only recently [then] being used by a lot of people in thoroughbred racing and quite possibly, were relatively unknown at the harness tracks, especially his speed figures.

  Whatever - I learned enough tonight that with the stock market taps on my time, I don't think I'm going to be investing a lot in this for a while.  I've been using neural networks to assist in trading stocks and thought it would be a big improvement over what we accomplished with Multiple Regression.  And it must be, as there are lots of people applying NNs to the ponies, and they're way ahead of me!

  This looks like a good resource for anyone interested in data mining the past performances!

  http://www.cormactech.com/neunet/horses.html

  Regardless of my caveats above, I'm still interested in any thoughts you or others might have on this.

  --Jimmy4164
• eddessaknight

  

  LAS VEGAS
  United States
  Member #47,728
  November 22, 2006
  9,382 Posts
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  Apr 18, 2011, 7:00 pm

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  In response to jimmy4164

  Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Apr 17, 2011

  Hi EddessaKnight,

  Wow!  A lot has transpired in the handicapping game since I made a foray into it years ago.  Among other things, I've discovered that my First Edition of Andy Beyer's Picking Winners is worth more than I originally paid for it!

  In my surfing tonight I also learned why you commented on my 5% winnings in the 70s.  Apparently, my guess that the state and track take was 12% was off by 5%, and that adding my 5 to their 17 means I remember beating it by 19%.  You're right in being impressed (or doubtful?)  :-)  My guess at the 5% number was based on discussions between me and my associate in later years, where we just guestimated what we might have cleared over the couple years we trekked to that harness track.  In reality, we could have lost 5%.  Whatever it was, it wasn't a lot either way.  The reason I think it was possible then, and maybe impossible nowadays, is the fact that Beyer's methods, several of which we employed, were only recently [then] being used by a lot of people in thoroughbred racing and quite possibly, were relatively unknown at the harness tracks, especially his speed figures.

  Whatever - I learned enough tonight that with the stock market taps on my time, I don't think I'm going to be investing a lot in this for a while.  I've been using neural networks to assist in trading stocks and thought it would be a big improvement over what we accomplished with Multiple Regression.  And it must be, as there are lots of people applying NNs to the ponies, and they're way ahead of me!

  This looks like a good resource for anyone interested in data mining the past performances!

  http://www.cormactech.com/neunet/horses.html

  Regardless of my caveats above, I'm still interested in any thoughts you or others might have on this.

  --Jimmy4164

  Hey Jimmy,

  Welcome back, sorry with the inadverdent slow reply but biz has kept me busy + weekend  racing $$$ selections.

  Your writing proves you are an earnest investigator. With that in mind permit me to share som further straight forward thoughts to save the talk- mind you I am not intending to change your way of thinking.

  Players do overcome the odds 1% table games & 2 % racing/sports books. Is beimg done but not with conventionals systems or math as the game providers do not intentonally offer games to be beaten virtually imposible to overcome to overcome negative expectaion, too many variables both known nknown including manipulation, cheating, tricks of the trade, etc These fambling  games are being offred as adult toys for entertainment purposes not for way to make easy money. So orthodox systems, Fibbonaci, Marty, Dr Z racing & Dr Sartin programs are not only too convulted but in 20 years I haven't met one player who is making a living from these programs. Simetimes they can help player lose less..... I met both these luminaries & they are very nie gentelmen can't show you how to win anymore then the fine Andy Byers

  This is why our legendary Damon Runyon said "All players die broke."

  Yes I do know about the physics of card counting and visual ballistics wheel clocking  for roulette but did you ever try it? Counting against a multi decks with Shauffle master machines, and visual ballistics you will nedd etes of a hawk plus the eye to hand agility of a F-22 pilot and should you make it guess what = after you are identified as an advantage player you will be recorded w/information being circulated system wide and further told your action is no longer wanted. That's the general simplified reality of what you can expect for all your trouble.

  So the [pwerful standard odds and the provider are agsinst you so what left ?

  BOTTOM LINE_

  NEVER SAY NEVER

  The player will have to go outside the conventiomal gaming box to over come the odds & the countermeasure - there in lies the improable although possible solution. Those few will rarely give those secrets up, unless io a death bed & the casino's motto  "Don't give a sucker an even break"

  Jimmy I admire your tenacity & earnestness and that's why I am sharing summaries of 20 years  of swiming w/the sharks

  Hope you were able to take advantage of some of my seemingly crazy but profitable pro bono publico racing pics.

   

  Regards,

  EddessaKnight

  PS-

  No offense intended with my light hearted satire.
• jimmy4164

  United States
  Member #93,943
  July 10, 2010
  2,180 Posts
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  Apr 19, 2011, 3:05 am

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  In response to eddessaknight

  Quote: Originally posted by eddessaknight on Apr 18, 2011

  Hey Jimmy,

  Welcome back, sorry with the inadverdent slow reply but biz has kept me busy + weekend  racing $$$ selections.

  Your writing proves you are an earnest investigator. With that in mind permit me to share som further straight forward thoughts to save the talk- mind you I am not intending to change your way of thinking.

  Players do overcome the odds 1% table games & 2 % racing/sports books. Is beimg done but not with conventionals systems or math as the game providers do not intentonally offer games to be beaten virtually imposible to overcome to overcome negative expectaion, too many variables both known nknown including manipulation, cheating, tricks of the trade, etc These fambling  games are being offred as adult toys for entertainment purposes not for way to make easy money. So orthodox systems, Fibbonaci, Marty, Dr Z racing & Dr Sartin programs are not only too convulted but in 20 years I haven't met one player who is making a living from these programs. Simetimes they can help player lose less..... I met both these luminaries & they are very nie gentelmen can't show you how to win anymore then the fine Andy Byers

  This is why our legendary Damon Runyon said "All players die broke."

  Yes I do know about the physics of card counting and visual ballistics wheel clocking  for roulette but did you ever try it? Counting against a multi decks with Shauffle master machines, and visual ballistics you will nedd etes of a hawk plus the eye to hand agility of a F-22 pilot and should you make it guess what = after you are identified as an advantage player you will be recorded w/information being circulated system wide and further told your action is no longer wanted. That's the general simplified reality of what you can expect for all your trouble.

  So the [pwerful standard odds and the provider are agsinst you so what left ?

  BOTTOM LINE_

  NEVER SAY NEVER

  The player will have to go outside the conventiomal gaming box to over come the odds & the countermeasure - there in lies the improable although possible solution. Those few will rarely give those secrets up, unless io a death bed & the casino's motto  "Don't give a sucker an even break"

  Jimmy I admire your tenacity & earnestness and that's why I am sharing summaries of 20 years  of swiming w/the sharks

  Hope you were able to take advantage of some of my seemingly crazy but profitable pro bono publico racing pics.

   

  Regards,

  EddessaKnight

  PS-

  No offense intended with my light hearted satire.

  Thanks for your input.  I don't have time tonight (this AM!) for more verbage, but here's a picture to consider.  I know we're supposed to be talking about horses, but for tonight let's pretend they have red and black coded patterns on their saddle pads!  This is from an article by Phil Abel in the November 2003 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine.

  "How can the average gambler expect to fare at the roulette table?  Figure 1 (below) shows a distribution of simulated outcomes.  We assume that 50,000 random gamblers each play 1,000 consecutive spins of the roulette wheel.  They each start with $1,000 and wager $1 on a single number per spin.  At the extremes of the curve are a few especially lucky or unlucky individuals who do extremely well or extremely poorly.  However, the average gambler is left with a small loss.  The house edge for this bet is 5.26% -- over time, the house can expect to win 5.26 cents for every dollar wagered.  The longer we play, the more we can expect to lose..."

  I'll quote more and talk about it tomorrow. 

  I'm beginning to see why the casinos are so vigilant at these tables! 

  
• jimmy4164

  United States
  Member #93,943
  July 10, 2010
  2,180 Posts
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  Apr 20, 2011, 3:02 pm

  ▲▼

  Sorry for the delay.  I'm hoping people are noticing the range of possibilities provided by a perfectly honest, random [roulette] wheel.  E.G., out of the 50,000 Trials (people) there were a sizable number who netted 25% and greater over 1,000 spins.  And this was without using any sort of a system!  Unfortunately, that "sizable" number is not as big as we would like it to be. 

  Believe it or not, these methods can be applied to horserace betting.  Not to picking winners, but estimating risk based on an analysis of your picking performance.

  It's just easier to illustrate this way.
• jimmy4164

  United States
  Member #93,943
  July 10, 2010
  2,180 Posts
  Offline
  Apr 21, 2011, 3:21 am

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  In response to jimmy4164

  Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Apr 20, 2011

  Sorry for the delay.  I'm hoping people are noticing the range of possibilities provided by a perfectly honest, random [roulette] wheel.  E.G., out of the 50,000 Trials (people) there were a sizable number who netted 25% and greater over 1,000 spins.  And this was without using any sort of a system!  Unfortunately, that "sizable" number is not as big as we would like it to be. 

  Believe it or not, these methods can be applied to horserace betting.  Not to picking winners, but estimating risk based on an analysis of your picking performance.

  It's just easier to illustrate this way.

  I just found something in a review of "Picking Winners" at Amazon that helps pull these various forms of betting together.  There are some people posting in other Forums here that don't think it makes sense to use roulette or stock simulations to try to make a point regarding lotteries.  Although the reviewer was not a horse player, he raved about the book...

  "I've never bet on a horse race. I've actually only been to a track once in my life (we don't have a lot of it in this part of the country), and yet I still found this book tremendously useful. Why? Well, it was recommended to me as a guide to 'Picking Winners,' not just in the horse racing world but in the stock market as well. And, having now read the book I can say that it has proven a more effective lesson in choosing stocks than most of the investment books I've read."  (1)

  This leads me to suggest a four-part analogy:

  Horse : Stock :: Roulette Ball : Ping Pong Ball

  (1) Picking Winners Amazon Review

  P.S.  Notwithstanding anything you may have heard about me, I DO believe it is possible to improve your betting bottom line by employing systematic methods in the stock market and at the track!