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Interest In Backtesting and Simulating Lottery Systems

Topic closed. 99 replies. Last post 5 years ago by lotterybraker.

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What are the Merits of Backtesting and Simulating Lottery Systems?

I think it would provide valuable insights. [ 41 ]  [64.06%]
I think it would be a waste of time. [ 6 ]  [9.38%]
I Don't Know but I would like to learn about it. [ 13 ]  [20.31%]
I don't know and I don't care. [ 4 ]  [6.25%]
Total Valid Votes [ 64 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 1 ]  
RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19824 Posts
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Posted: May 12, 2011, 1:38 pm - IP Logged

"It was only offered as an example of a hypothesis."

Five years is a very logical time period to test a system for profitably but this isn't a "play the same combos forever" type of system.

"This exemplifies where you are going wrong in your thinking."

I gave you the benefit of doubt by saying it's possible that 5000 players would purchase a $1 pick-3 QP tying to win $500 last night and I was being very liberal by saying someone would play the same ten combos for 100 drawings using that type of a system.

"You're getting bogged down in details of a specific system."

You must be assuming I believe risking $1000 with only an expected 72 chances to win in a 100 drawings to show a $100 profit is a good bet playing pick-3, but I don't. I only suggested testing that system because nobody else has provide a system for you to test.

My thinking is base on realistic lottery play and it's unrealistic for anyone to continue betting a $1 in every drawing using the same method of play trying to win $500 after losses over $500. Don't know the percentage of players having zero wins after 3 years of drawings but it's unrealistic to suggest even for test purposes the $1 a drawing bet trying to win $500 will continue for ten more years. 

A more realistic approach is giving 5000 QP players a starting bankroll of $500 if $500 is the most they can expect to win on any one drawing.

"I know, you think there exists a system that can put you consistently on the right hand side of that bell curve. I don't agree."

Some states average over $1 million in pick-3 play every drawing with an average daily payoff of over $500,000. If there is no productive system, who is collecting the payoffs?

"From comments you've made here it doesn't appear you really have much confidence in the system you [sort of] described above,"

It was a simple pencil paper pick-3 system I saw over 20 years ago and thought it might be worth testing. A chart has ten 3 digit combo listed as "A through J". I checked the past 10 drawing digit frequency combining the KY midday and evening drawings and use the most frequent digit as letter "A" to the least frequent digit as letter "J".   

I told you before I didn't like the idea of giving up 28% of the drawings by using three different digits in every drawing so that's why I never looked for possible playing potential.

"so how about proposing something that you believe has a chance at success?"   

Hopefully someone will know which system that Iowa financial adviser used to win $9 million playing Hot Lotto and you test it.

Hopefully someone will know which system that Iowa financial adviser used to win $9 million playing Hot Lotto and you test it.

According to the news story:

He and his wife started playing Hot Lotto about three months ago after reading a book that claimed to have the secrets to winning the lottery. He followed the recommendations, which included buying 19 plays for each drawing to cover all the Hot Ball options.

From that we know he play 19 lines ~25 times.  Todd speculates it was a wheeling system with 19 lines.  We know he got his instructions from a book but I doubt it was titled "How to win Hot Lotto".   Even if his system is revealed it will be hard to prove it was anything other than luck that he won a jackpot within 25 tries.   If it wasn't luck then we can expect to hear he won again within six months.

Such a system, if it does exists could be helpful winning the Ohio Rolling Cash5 (5/39+0/0).

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       


    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
    2180 Posts
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    Posted: May 12, 2011, 2:04 pm - IP Logged

    Stack47,

    What I hope I can do is help you to abandon your tendency to think about things like "people don't bet that way" or "nobody would play..." because if you don't, you will not be able to benefit from Monte Carlo (MC) simulations.  There are many cases with MC where it's imperitive that the simulation eventually be modeled on real behaviour but for what we're doing here it doesn't matter at this point.

    Before looking at short term results, please follow this thread:

    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/229947/2056366

    --Jimmy4164

    P.S.

    When you tell me, "You must be assuming I believe risking $1000 with only an expected 72 chances to win in a 100 drawings to show a $100 profit is a good bet playing pick-3, but I don't. I only suggested testing that system because nobody else has provide a system for you to test."

    ... it reminds me you keep forgetting I already tested several Pick-3 systems in the past, a couple in response to your questions:

    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218425/1764080

      Avatar
      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7302 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 12, 2011, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

      Since the only rule is  "place ten pick-3 digits in a gird in order of most preferred digits to least",  the player is picking all the numbers and arranging them in any order he prefers.  How is that a system that can be evaluated?

      A consistent order is definitely necessary and would probably require changing the combos almost every drawing. By keying on at least one digit repeating and then enter the other digits by the past ten drawings frequency is a possible consistent solution for evaluation. I'll use the KY evening drawing so if it does show potential, I can play it (LOL).

      8 7 1 
      6 8 9 
      4 8 0 
      3 5 4 
      7 2 9 
      5 2 8   
      0 6 7   
      9 1 0   
      1 6 2   
      2 3 0 

      I'll move the picks over to the prediction board just to see what it looks like after ten drawings. And even though I changed the digit order in each combo so each digit will appear in the first position, it's still ten $1 box bets. If somebody has suggestions how better use this "A to J" system, we can move it over to the systems forum so not to interfere with Jimmy's thread.


        United States
        Member #93947
        July 10, 2010
        2180 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: May 16, 2011, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
          2180 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: May 24, 2011, 10:01 am - IP Logged

          I'd like to express thanks to the 23 (out of 31 on May 24, 2011) for taking the time to respond to the Poll positively.  Unfortunately, as you have witnessed I'm sure, this topic is not easy to pursue when there is a concerted effort to thwart it by a vocal minority who appear to have some vested interest motivating them.

          I don't have the time or will to deal with such dissonance at this time.  What I hope is that you have enough interest in this area to pursue the links provided in my other thread...

          Backtesting and Simulating Lottery Systems

          --Jimmy4164

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19824 Posts
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            Posted: July 4, 2011, 2:06 am - IP Logged

            Back testing takes a lot of time if done as a true back test because you have to go back and use only the data that was known at the time and see if you would have gotten a winning result that you now know.   It may even require that a file with only the data up to the date of the back test be created each time a back test is done to get realistic results which very few are willing to spend time during.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              mayhem's avatar - 142g5yd
              Fort Worth, TX
              United States
              Member #106060
              February 11, 2011
              188 Posts
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              Posted: July 6, 2011, 12:49 am - IP Logged

              Back testing takes a lot of time if done as a true back test because you have to go back and use only the data that was known at the time and see if you would have gotten a winning result that you now know.   It may even require that a file with only the data up to the date of the back test be created each time a back test is done to get realistic results which very few are willing to spend time during.

              Is it worth it?

              How you do anything is how you do everything.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19824 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: July 7, 2011, 12:46 am - IP Logged

                Is it worth it?

                Probably not to the persons who has nothing to gain by doing it.  That's the reason I do my own.  Beside the results only matter to me since I'm not trying convince anyone else to do what I do.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  sully16's avatar - sharan
                  Ringleader
                  Michigan
                  United States
                  Member #81740
                  October 28, 2009
                  40376 Posts
                  Online
                  Posted: July 25, 2011, 9:33 am - IP Logged

                  I'll take the time to backtest someones system, and I'll try making new predictions from the system, however, I do like the sums and rootsums the best, I like playing the bell curve, I know there are more numbers adding up to 12-13-14-15, then 6-7-8, but with some process of elimination and paying attention to what is due, I believe you can get more hits.

                  Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

                  For a lead role in a cage?

                   

                                                              From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

                    lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
                    mississippi
                    United States
                    Member #34478
                    March 3, 2006
                    5903 Posts
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                    Posted: August 18, 2011, 2:21 pm - IP Logged

                    The More I read threads here at LP the more I come to the conclusion that there are MILLIONS of people out there that are so Gullible it is UNBELIEVABLE!!!! That guy got SH$T HOUSE LUCKY and that is all there was to it...there is no MAGICAL SECRET BOOK ANYWHERE ON PLANET EARTH that is going to tell you how to win the lottery and TRY AND USE SOME COMMON SENSE, if there was a book...THERE WOULD BE NO LOTTERY EVER..it would be won every single week..right!!!!?

                     

                    How to win LOTTERY BOOKS  were written by people who got lucky and that is all there is to it, so they decided to write a book and make a little more money off of people that ARE GULLIBLE..and oh yeah...If you are a person with somewhat sound finacial means and can afford to play more tickets than the average player on the street , then oh hell yeah..you can find a good wheel that will certainly help you win, but it will cost you more money to play all of those wheeled numbers...

                     

                    Let me give you not 2 cents worth of advice ..lets say about 5 bucks worth...YOU BETTER TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT ALL THE COMBINATIONS THAT ARE IN THERE FIRST, second..YOU BETTER LEARN A LITTLE SOMETHING ABOUT HOW MANY DIFFERENT VARIABLES ARE IN EACH GAME...and if you think those 2 points dont matter than dont even talk to me...

                     

                    OH YEAH...If anyone on this planet SAYS THEY HAVE A SYSTEM THAT WILL WIN THE LOTTERY and can do it over and over and over and over and over, which is what a system will do by the way...THEY ARE A LIAR..and if they can prove it...which I know they cant...I WILL KISS THEIR A$$ AT HIGHNOON ON ANY MAIN STREET THEY CHOOSE..!!!!!!!1

                    "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"