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Good Investment Or Not- Playing Every Combination

Topic closed. 30 replies. Last post 6 years ago by RJOh.

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guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

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Posted: May 15, 2011, 10:28 pm - IP Logged

That was done some 15-20 years ago with the Virginia lottery by an Australian business group.  They made out their tickets ahead of time and hire several bonded people to try and play all their play slips in three days.  They tied up three terminals at three different Seven/Eleven stores and played more than 80% of the combinations. 

They got lucky and was the only jackpot winner but as a result most states changed their policies to prevent that from ever happening again that way.  Now most states don't allow one person or group to control a terminal longer than a few minutes if others are waiting to use it so the logistic of playing that many play slip is almost impossible today.

Yep - this is the one I was referring to.

Always on top of things, kudos to RJOH.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: May 16, 2011, 1:21 am - IP Logged

    Yep - this is the one I was referring to.

    Always on top of things, kudos to RJOH.

    Presently, Ohio Classic Lotto(649) has a $31.4M jackpot with a cash value of $15.7M.

    If one could play all 13,986,816 possible combinations, they would not only win the jackpot but also win 260,623 other prizes worth $1,828,790.  Since the payouts after each drawings have been $27,000-$31,100, I'm guessing less than 20% of the possible combinations are being sold each drawing and that's not likely to change much in the near future.

    Where are the investors who want to grow their money 125.3% in one drawing?  There might be some if they could play all those combinations in 2 days or so since OCL has a drawing every Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.  In the old days when there were only one or two drawings a week, they had at least three days.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

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      Posted: May 16, 2011, 1:40 am - IP Logged

      Yeah, it's odds of 1 in ~20 million (buried back in the game description page), but they have 1 in ~10 million on the easy-to-find front page Lotto chart -- so that changes things. The prize has to be much higher than it currently is to make "buy all combos" work.

      If they could make the site more "useful" and less "playful", that would help immensely.

      The odds of the game are very definitely  (and clearly) 1 in ~ 10 million. They don't sell half tickets, so you play two combinations on each ticket you play. That makes the cost of buying every combination just under $10.2 million.

      By playing every combination you would cover every possible prize, not just the jackpot. That means that if 20 cents of each dollar is returned as non-jackpot prizes you could win back about 20% of your ticket cost in non-jackpot prizes.  The 30 cents on the dollar that presumably goes to the jackpot would increase the jackpot's cash value by a bit over 3 million dollars. That means you'd be spending a bit over $8 million to definitely win a share of about $12 million. All told you're looking at an after-tax profit of perhaps $3 million.

      Of course there's a bit more overhead. It wouldn't be easy to buy 10+ million tickets, and it wouldn't be easy to sort out the winners and  then claim them. By playing all combinations you could expect to win nearly 300,000 $3 prizes. Just claiming them is going to require an absolute minimum of a month of full time work, and probably a lot more.  Even without the chance of sharing the jackpot I don't think it's a great return for the total investment for anybody who can pull together $10 million.

        time*treat's avatar - radar

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        Posted: May 16, 2011, 10:56 am - IP Logged

        From their site, they say the game is a choose 6 from 52. That's where I got that number from.

        The part I missed was The player receives two sets of numbers for each $1.00 played in the Lotto game.

        So... it's ~$10 million to play all ~20 million combos. Smile

        $3 million profit is nice any day, but something tells me that if a person or group somehow overcame the logistics and successfully pulled it off, some rule would be changed to try to prevent a repeat.


        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: May 16, 2011, 2:23 pm - IP Logged

          From their site, they say the game is a choose 6 from 52. That's where I got that number from.

          The part I missed was The player receives two sets of numbers for each $1.00 played in the Lotto game.

          So... it's ~$10 million to play all ~20 million combos. Smile

          $3 million profit is nice any day, but something tells me that if a person or group somehow overcame the logistics and successfully pulled it off, some rule would be changed to try to prevent a repeat.


          $3 million profit is nice any day, but something tells me that if a person or group somehow overcame the logistics and successfully pulled it off, some rule would be changed to try to prevent a repeat.

          With rules and frequencies of the drawings now, there would be so many people involved that no one but themselves would know about it unless they talked about it publicly.  We assume it isn't happening now because no one has talked publicly about doing it since that Australian group did it in the Virgina lottery some years ago.

          The last time I heard about anything similar happening was 4 or 5 years ago when an Indiana/Illinois real estate investor read on the state lottery website that a scratch-off game had sold all but a few thousands of its tickets and still had a few jackpots of $1M not sold.  He went around the state buying all of those tickets he could find and when all the tickets were sold and no new jackpots winners were announced he went public and sued the state claiming the website posted false information costing him more than $100K.  The state just said "not sold" should have been "not claimed" and apologized to him.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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            Posted: May 16, 2011, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

            $3 million profit is nice any day, but something tells me that if a person or group somehow overcame the logistics and successfully pulled it off, some rule would be changed to try to prevent a repeat.

            With rules and frequencies of the drawings now, there would be so many people involved that no one but themselves would know about it unless they talked about it publicly.  We assume it isn't happening now because no one has talked publicly about doing it since that Australian group did it in the Virgina lottery some years ago.

            The last time I heard about anything similar happening was 4 or 5 years ago when an Indiana/Illinois real estate investor read on the state lottery website that a scratch-off game had sold all but a few thousands of its tickets and still had a few jackpots of $1M not sold.  He went around the state buying all of those tickets he could find and when all the tickets were sold and no new jackpots winners were announced he went public and sued the state claiming the website posted false information costing him more than $100K.  The state just said "not sold" should have been "not claimed" and apologized to him.

            Good one.

            And I have to admit it made me laugh a little bit.

            I don't know why for sure but just picturing this guy running all over the state buying up all those tickets and winding up with bupkus just seems funny for some reason. Maybe it was the greed factor. Or maybe it was the state simply apologizing for the "mistake". LMAO! 

            It would have been even funnier if it was a lawyer.


                                                         
                                 
                                                     

             

             

             

             

                                                                                                               

            "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                        --Edmund Burke

             

             

              guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

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              Posted: May 17, 2011, 1:56 am - IP Logged

              $3 million profit is nice any day, but something tells me that if a person or group somehow overcame the logistics and successfully pulled it off, some rule would be changed to try to prevent a repeat.

              With rules and frequencies of the drawings now, there would be so many people involved that no one but themselves would know about it unless they talked about it publicly.  We assume it isn't happening now because no one has talked publicly about doing it since that Australian group did it in the Virgina lottery some years ago.

              The last time I heard about anything similar happening was 4 or 5 years ago when an Indiana/Illinois real estate investor read on the state lottery website that a scratch-off game had sold all but a few thousands of its tickets and still had a few jackpots of $1M not sold.  He went around the state buying all of those tickets he could find and when all the tickets were sold and no new jackpots winners were announced he went public and sued the state claiming the website posted false information costing him more than $100K.  The state just said "not sold" should have been "not claimed" and apologized to him.

              There are several other instances of states selling games such as 'trucks and bucks' or 'new Harley', the problem was they had all of the trucks claimed, or all the harleys claimed, yet they still sold those game tickets under the pretense someone could win a new truck or a new Harley when they could not. They were sued, and the states lost.

                guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

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                Posted: May 17, 2011, 1:58 am - IP Logged

                Good one.

                And I have to admit it made me laugh a little bit.

                I don't know why for sure but just picturing this guy running all over the state buying up all those tickets and winding up with bupkus just seems funny for some reason. Maybe it was the greed factor. Or maybe it was the state simply apologizing for the "mistake". LMAO! 

                It would have been even funnier if it was a lawyer.

                I don't think it was greed at all.

                Given the same situation, I'd do the same thing, all this guy did was deduce the odds were in his favor, that's all.

                  rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                  Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                  Posted: May 17, 2011, 11:34 am - IP Logged

                  I don't think it was greed at all.

                  Given the same situation, I'd do the same thing, all this guy did was deduce the odds were in his favor, that's all.

                  You could well be right.

                  But I must have a twisted sense of humor.

                  Still makes me laugh for some reason.

                  I probably need counseling.


                                                               
                                       
                                                           

                   

                   

                   

                   

                                                                                                                     

                  "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                              --Edmund Burke

                   

                   

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
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                    Posted: May 17, 2011, 6:57 pm - IP Logged

                    I don't think it was greed at all.

                    Given the same situation, I'd do the same thing, all this guy did was deduce the odds were in his favor, that's all.

                    Deducing the odds were in his favor from information posted on a state lottery website was foolish since they usually only post information to encourage the buying of more tickets.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                      Posted: May 17, 2011, 7:24 pm - IP Logged

                      Deducing the odds were in his favor from information posted on a state lottery website was foolish since they usually only post information to encourage the buying of more tickets.

                      Hey that's right...

                      So maybe I don't need counseling afterall...

                      It was funny!

                      I'm not crazy!

                      I'mNot Crazy!! --------> Crazy 

                      That guy was a dope and it was funny!

                      LMAO!


                                                                   
                                           
                                                               

                       

                       

                       

                       

                                                                                                                         

                      "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                  --Edmund Burke

                       

                       

                        duckman's avatar - ducklogodrake64x64
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                        Posted: May 17, 2011, 7:47 pm - IP Logged

                        Also consider that if someone were to bet all possible combinations on top of an existing jackpot, the jackpot would be increased by an amount equal to 50% of what he/she bet (or more or less, depending on what percentage of each ticket sale goes to the jackpot) so the bettor would get some of his/her money back with a win in addition to the jackpot amount before he/she bet the $20 million (if odds are 1 in 20,000,000).

                        It all comes down to the size of the jackpot and the number of winners...

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: May 18, 2011, 12:32 am - IP Logged

                          Also consider that if someone were to bet all possible combinations on top of an existing jackpot, the jackpot would be increased by an amount equal to 50% of what he/she bet (or more or less, depending on what percentage of each ticket sale goes to the jackpot) so the bettor would get some of his/her money back with a win in addition to the jackpot amount before he/she bet the $20 million (if odds are 1 in 20,000,000).

                          It all comes down to the size of the jackpot and the number of winners...

                          When you consider companies like Microsoft and Apple which are worth billions today started out during my lifetime with less than $10K, if all someone could come up with to do with $10M+ is spend it on lottery tickets, I doubt they could handle the logistics of getting  all the play slips filled out and played before the drawing.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

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                            Posted: May 18, 2011, 2:41 am - IP Logged

                            "With rules and frequencies of the drawings now, there would be so many people involved that no one but themselves would know about it unless they talked about it publicly"

                            If they're successful the lottery will know about it. Selling every combination, or even 90% of them without selling an enormous number of tickets is virtually impossibe from a statistical standpoint. There's also the matter of how they would organize their bets. You don't think they're going to sort through 10 million random tickets, do you? The most cost effective way to find all of the winners is to make the bets in numerical order.

                            "Given the same situation, I'd do the same thing, all this guy did was deduce the odds were in his favor, that's all."

                            Given the same situation I'd know that the lottery's info only tells them what's been claimed, and that even if the remaining jackpots haven't been sold the chance of actually finding them probably isn't anywhere close to 100%. Risking $100k for an 80% chance of getting $1 or 2 million (probably as an annuity, and definitely before taxes) isn't such a good deal when the remaining 20% chance is that you'll lose virtually all of the $100k. If you can afford to lose the 100k you don't need the jackpot.

                              time*treat's avatar - radar

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                              Posted: May 18, 2011, 11:25 am - IP Logged

                              When you consider companies like Microsoft and Apple which are worth billions today started out during my lifetime with less than $10K, if all someone could come up with to do with $10M+ is spend it on lottery tickets, I doubt they could handle the logistics of getting  all the play slips filled out and played before the drawing.

                              You'd have to start filling them out well (weeks?) in advance, just in case the JP ever got big enough to warrant the bet.

                              Getting them all played in the same drawing is the harder part. LOL

                              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.