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CIA and Dept of Defense use math to tell Future!

Topic closed. 15 replies. Last post 6 years ago by JosephusMinimus.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
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Posted: May 13, 2011, 10:27 am - IP Logged

 Hmmmm........  Over 90% accuracy ?   Well, that would get our attention too. 

 

                                            What do ya think Jade...?

 

                                                           http://www.good.is/post/the-new-nostradamus/

 

           With a name like Bueno de Mesquita ......he has to be good.  LOL 

                                                                                                                                              Would you believe that's aDutch name ?

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
    Stone Mountain*Georgia
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    Posted: May 13, 2011, 10:51 am - IP Logged

    I don't like this show....... but here is a video interview with this fella .    It's a quick download anyway. 

     Here is the interview......    http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-september-28-2009/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita 

     

     Another Bio.          http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/magazine/16Bruce-t.html

     

     

    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                           Win d    

      JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
      The Quantum Master
      West Concord, MN
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      Posted: May 13, 2011, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

      We posted a reply in our blog:

      http://blogs.lotterypost.com/jadelottery/2011/5/cia-and-dept-of-defense-use-math-to-tell-futu.htm

      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
      Use at your own risk.

      Order is a Subset of Chaos
      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
      Wisdom is Not Censored
      Douglas Paul Smallish
      Jehocifer

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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        Posted: May 13, 2011, 10:24 pm - IP Logged

        WIN D

        This guy has been around for quite a while, I seen a couple specials where his work was showcased.

        Many of his predictions are dead on but he won't reveal what he uses.  I don't think that his program 

        could do anything as far a the lottery goes.

        RL

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          NY
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          Posted: May 14, 2011, 1:44 am - IP Logged

          This isn't anything new. It's called psychohistory, and Isaac Asimov came up with the basic concept almost 70 years ago.

          In lottery terms his predictions aren't even close to dead on. They're more like giving a good, but general, description of the winning combination without actually getting any of the numbers right.

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            Posted: May 14, 2011, 11:13 am - IP Logged

            The US Navy does it too and they're fairly accurate within the context of what they're trying to predict.  As nearly as I can tell they base their predictions completely on past draw results:

            http://maia.usno.navy.mil/

            IERS Bulletin A -- Rapid Service/Prediction of Earth Orientation


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              Posted: May 18, 2011, 10:13 pm - IP Logged

              The US Navy does it too and they're fairly accurate within the context of what they're trying to predict.  As nearly as I can tell they base their predictions completely on past draw results:

              http://maia.usno.navy.mil/

              IERS Bulletin A -- Rapid Service/Prediction of Earth Orientation

              Inasmuch as fundamental laws of motion allow them to estimate the future position of objects based on observing where they've been at precise times, you could loosely say they are using math to predict the future.  However, if they used the word "draw" in describing the coordinates of one of the object's previous positions, I would be surprised, and if they did, I would doubt they had a lottery in mind.

              P.S.  What is in the "ser7.dat" file at lottery post that you've relabeled an IERS Bulletin?  I don't like to click on URLs ending in .dat.

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                Posted: May 19, 2011, 7:14 am - IP Logged

                Inasmuch as fundamental laws of motion allow them to estimate the future position of objects based on observing where they've been at precise times, you could loosely say they are using math to predict the future.  However, if they used the word "draw" in describing the coordinates of one of the object's previous positions, I would be surprised, and if they did, I would doubt they had a lottery in mind.

                P.S.  What is in the "ser7.dat" file at lottery post that you've relabeled an IERS Bulletin?  I don't like to click on URLs ending in .dat.

                The site is the US Naval Observatory. IERS is the International Earth Orientation Bulletin distributed by the USNO site regularly to subscribers and available from their site.

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                  Posted: May 19, 2011, 8:23 am - IP Logged

                  My point was that there's a lot more precise predicting of future events going on than we usually consider and that most of those predictions are based, or contain a vital component of math, combined with observation.

                  Almost everything we're able to observe more than a couple of hundred miles above the surface of this planet is either predictable now, or there's good cause to believe will become predictable as models are developed to incorporate observable data to be correlated with concurrent events.  All products of observation and math.

                  It's whatever's happening or will happen below that 200 miles that quickly loses predictability.

                  Of course they don't refer to draws in the bulletin.  Sometimes your inability to distance yourself from what a serious and must-be-taken-seriously person you are enough to recognize a tongue firmly planted in the cheek makes it worthwhile to click the plus-sign by your blocked posts to read them for the laughs.


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                    Posted: May 19, 2011, 1:02 pm - IP Logged

                    My point was that there's a lot more precise predicting of future events going on than we usually consider and that most of those predictions are based, or contain a vital component of math, combined with observation.

                    Almost everything we're able to observe more than a couple of hundred miles above the surface of this planet is either predictable now, or there's good cause to believe will become predictable as models are developed to incorporate observable data to be correlated with concurrent events.  All products of observation and math.

                    It's whatever's happening or will happen below that 200 miles that quickly loses predictability.

                    Of course they don't refer to draws in the bulletin.  Sometimes your inability to distance yourself from what a serious and must-be-taken-seriously person you are enough to recognize a tongue firmly planted in the cheek makes it worthwhile to click the plus-sign by your blocked posts to read them for the laughs.

                    Sorry you must turn to my words to lift your spirits.  Bs notwithstanding, you're clever enough to distinguish the difference between someone missing your humor and their efforts to ensure others do not.  And I'm clever enough to recognize efforts to propagate fallacies in the interest of profit.


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                      Posted: May 21, 2011, 2:09 pm - IP Logged

                      The US Navy does it too and they're fairly accurate within the context of what they're trying to predict.  As nearly as I can tell they base their predictions completely on past draw results:

                      http://maia.usno.navy.mil/

                      IERS Bulletin A -- Rapid Service/Prediction of Earth Orientation

                      The first of the two links in the quoted posting above point to "...navy.mil" which is what the label promises.  However, the second one, "IERS Bull....tion" actually resolves to "http://www.lotterypost.com/ser7/ser7.dat."  Here is the underlying HTML:

                      <p><a href="http://maia.usno.navy.mil/" rel="nofollow external">http://maia.usno.navy.mil/</a></p>

                      <p><a href="/ser7/ser7.dat" rel="nofollow external">IERS Bulletin A -- Rapid Service/Prediction of Earth Orientation</a></p>

                      As you can see above, this html results in the browser displaying what appears to be one URL, when actually there are two.

                      So, I ask again, what purpose does the file "ser7.dat" serve at LotteryPost?

                      And, does anyone have any idea why or how this html ended up this way?

                      (You can't be too careful when hackers can hack Pentagon computers!)

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                        Posted: May 21, 2011, 3:42 pm - IP Logged

                        The first of the two links in the quoted posting above point to "...navy.mil" which is what the label promises.  However, the second one, "IERS Bull....tion" actually resolves to "http://www.lotterypost.com/ser7/ser7.dat."  Here is the underlying HTML:

                        <p><a href="http://maia.usno.navy.mil/" rel="nofollow external">http://maia.usno.navy.mil/</a></p>

                        <p><a href="/ser7/ser7.dat" rel="nofollow external">IERS Bulletin A -- Rapid Service/Prediction of Earth Orientation</a></p>

                        As you can see above, this html results in the browser displaying what appears to be one URL, when actually there are two.

                        So, I ask again, what purpose does the file "ser7.dat" serve at LotteryPost?

                        And, does anyone have any idea why or how this html ended up this way?

                        (You can't be too careful when hackers can hack Pentagon computers!)

                        Nothing to set your hair on fire over, Jimmy.  I probably made some sort of error in the way I posted the link.  I don't know that much about computers. 

                        Here's what the link contains when you click it at the US Naval Observatory site:

                        The contents of IERS Bulletin A are...

                        Section 1: General information including key definitions and the most recently adopted values of DUT1 and TAI-UTC.

                        Section 2: Quick-look daily estimates of the EOPs determined by combining the observed data. This involves the application of systematic corrections and statistical weighting. The results are published with a delay of about one day between the date of publication and the last available date with estimated EOP. Also, the final EOP values, from the IERS Earth Orientation Parameter Product Center (EOP PC), are published monthly when available.

                        Section 3: Predictions of x, y, and UT1-UTC, for up to 360 days following the last day of data in Section 2. Predictions combine the deterministic component of the EOPs with an autoregressive process that accounts for the stochastic components in the EOPs.

                        Section 4: Combination and prediction of celestial pole offsets dpsi and depsilon are provided when new VLBI observations become available. The results are published with a delay of about one week between the date of publication and the last available date with estimated offsets. Also, the final celestial pole offsets, from the IERS EOP PC, are published monthly when available.

                        The IERS Bulletin A (Rapid Service/Prediction) is distributed by 0h UTC of Friday of each week by mail and electronic mail. Questions may be directed to: ser7@maia.usno.navy.mil or phone (202)762-0242 or (202) 762-1444.

                        Relevant References

                        Combination

                        • McCarthy, D. D. and Luzum, B. J., 1991, "Combination of precise observations of the orientation of the Earth," Bull. Geod., Vol. 65, pp. 22-27.
                        • Luzum, B. J., Ray, J. R., Carter, M. S., and Josties, F. J., 2001, "Recent Improvements to IERS Bulletin A Combination and Prediction," GPS Solutions, Vol. 4(3), pp. 34-40.
                        • Wooden, W. H., Johnson, T. J., Carter, M. S., and Myers, A. E., 2004, "Near Real-Time IERS Products," Journees Systemes de Reference Spatio-Temporels 2003, pp. 160-163.

                        Prediction

                        • McCarthy, D. D. and Luzum, B. J., 1991, "Prediction of Earth Orientation," Bull. Geod., Vol. 65, pp. 18-22.
                        • Luzum, B. J., Ray, J. R., Carter, M. S., and Josties, F. J., 2001, "Recent Improvements to IERS Bulletin A Combination and Prediction," GPS Solutions, Vol. 4(3), pp. 34-40.
                        • Johnson, T. J., Luzum, B. J., Ray, J. R., 2005, "Improved near-term Earth rotation predictions using atmospheric angular momentum analysis and forecasts,"J. Geodyn.,Vol. 39, pp. 209-221.

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                          Posted: May 21, 2011, 4:18 pm - IP Logged

                          Nothing to set your hair on fire over, Jimmy.  I probably made some sort of error in the way I posted the link.  I don't know that much about computers. 

                          Here's what the link contains when you click it at the US Naval Observatory site:

                          The contents of IERS Bulletin A are...

                          Section 1: General information including key definitions and the most recently adopted values of DUT1 and TAI-UTC.

                          Section 2: Quick-look daily estimates of the EOPs determined by combining the observed data. This involves the application of systematic corrections and statistical weighting. The results are published with a delay of about one day between the date of publication and the last available date with estimated EOP. Also, the final EOP values, from the IERS Earth Orientation Parameter Product Center (EOP PC), are published monthly when available.

                          Section 3: Predictions of x, y, and UT1-UTC, for up to 360 days following the last day of data in Section 2. Predictions combine the deterministic component of the EOPs with an autoregressive process that accounts for the stochastic components in the EOPs.

                          Section 4: Combination and prediction of celestial pole offsets dpsi and depsilon are provided when new VLBI observations become available. The results are published with a delay of about one week between the date of publication and the last available date with estimated offsets. Also, the final celestial pole offsets, from the IERS EOP PC, are published monthly when available.

                          The IERS Bulletin A (Rapid Service/Prediction) is distributed by 0h UTC of Friday of each week by mail and electronic mail. Questions may be directed to: ser7@maia.usno.navy.mil or phone (202)762-0242 or (202) 762-1444.

                          Relevant References

                          Combination

                          • McCarthy, D. D. and Luzum, B. J., 1991, "Combination of precise observations of the orientation of the Earth," Bull. Geod., Vol. 65, pp. 22-27.
                          • Luzum, B. J., Ray, J. R., Carter, M. S., and Josties, F. J., 2001, "Recent Improvements to IERS Bulletin A Combination and Prediction," GPS Solutions, Vol. 4(3), pp. 34-40.
                          • Wooden, W. H., Johnson, T. J., Carter, M. S., and Myers, A. E., 2004, "Near Real-Time IERS Products," Journees Systemes de Reference Spatio-Temporels 2003, pp. 160-163.

                          Prediction

                          • McCarthy, D. D. and Luzum, B. J., 1991, "Prediction of Earth Orientation," Bull. Geod., Vol. 65, pp. 18-22.
                          • Luzum, B. J., Ray, J. R., Carter, M. S., and Josties, F. J., 2001, "Recent Improvements to IERS Bulletin A Combination and Prediction," GPS Solutions, Vol. 4(3), pp. 34-40.
                          • Johnson, T. J., Luzum, B. J., Ray, J. R., 2005, "Improved near-term Earth rotation predictions using atmospheric angular momentum analysis and forecasts,"J. Geodyn.,Vol. 39, pp. 209-221.

                          Everything you've posted immediately above is available at the .mil site.  But it doesn't tell us what happens when someone clicks on

                          http://www.lotterypost.com/ser7/ser7.dat

                          I wish you could address my question directly.  I fail to see how this HTML could result from anything you typed in error at the text editor level.  The username "ser7" at the Navy site would require some sort of miracle to end up as a folder/file reference "ser7/ser7.dat" at Lotterypost.com inadvertently!

                          Why not just tell us what you're tracking here?

                          <p><a href="http://maia.usno.navy.mil/" rel="nofollow external">http://maia.usno.navy.mil/</a></p>

                          <p><a href="/ser7/ser7.dat" rel="nofollow external">IERS Bulletin A -- Rapid Service/Prediction of Earth Orientation</a></p>

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                            Posted: May 21, 2011, 4:30 pm - IP Logged

                            Everything you've posted immediately above is available at the .mil site.  But it doesn't tell us what happens when someone clicks on

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/ser7/ser7.dat

                            I wish you could address my question directly.  I fail to see how this HTML could result from anything you typed in error at the text editor level.  The username "ser7" at the Navy site would require some sort of miracle to end up as a folder/file reference "ser7/ser7.dat" at Lotterypost.com inadvertently!

                            Why not just tell us what you're tracking here?

                            <p><a href="http://maia.usno.navy.mil/" rel="nofollow external">http://maia.usno.navy.mil/</a></p>

                            <p><a href="/ser7/ser7.dat" rel="nofollow external">IERS Bulletin A -- Rapid Service/Prediction of Earth Orientation</a></p>

                            I honestly don't know what you're talking about Jimmie.  Couldn't care less about whether it's a typed error, a copy paste error, computer glitch, whatever.  If the link doesn't work and you want to look at what's on the link at the site go to the site and look.  If you don't want to see the bulletin don't go look at it.

                            If you have a problem with the post click the 'Report' button and report it.

                            I've clicked the plus by your name so's to read your posts all I plan to for a while.


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                              Posted: May 23, 2011, 3:33 pm - IP Logged

                              I honestly don't know what you're talking about Jimmie.  Couldn't care less about whether it's a typed error, a copy paste error, computer glitch, whatever.  If the link doesn't work and you want to look at what's on the link at the site go to the site and look.  If you don't want to see the bulletin don't go look at it.

                              If you have a problem with the post click the 'Report' button and report it.

                              I've clicked the plus by your name so's to read your posts all I plan to for a while.

                              I'm not the only one concerned about suspicious looking URLs when what you see is not what you get...

                              "Intrusions include the chief information security officer of a sensitive agency discovering that his computer was sending data to computers in China. He had been the victim of a new type of spear phishing attack. Once the attackers got inside, they had freedom of action to use his personal computer as a tunnel into his agency’s systems.

                              "Or there are the problems that hundreds of senior federal officials and business executives encountered after they visited the website of a political think-tank and then found that their computers had been turned into zombies. Keystroke loggers, placed on their computers by the criminals—or, possibly a nation-state—captured their user names and passwords for personal bank and stock trading accounts."

                              http://www.sei.cmu.edu/solutions/security/