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How to Determine If Results are Likely Not Random?

Topic closed. 9 replies. Last post 5 years ago by JKING.

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Paris
France
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February 5, 2012
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Posted: February 9, 2012, 6:30 am - IP Logged

General Question:  How can I determine if results are likely not due to randomness?

Specifics: The results of my Monte Carlo simulation shows that, out of a large number of trials, my results (based on only 100 actual bets) are in the top 30% and top 5% (winnings, matches, whatever). While that's nice, there are a lot better random results. So how can I convert the results of the Monte Carlo simulation into a statement such as "There's a 95%/99% confidence that the results are not due to randomness." What kind of results and what level of results are needed to create such a statement?

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    New Member
    Paris
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    Posted: February 11, 2012, 8:18 am - IP Logged

    In answer to my own question, there are web page calculators that, given a list of values, will calculate value count, mean (average), variance and standard deviation. There's other web pages that will use those results to calculate confidence intervals for the mean for various alphas (90%, 95%, 99%). These sites have exactly answered my question.

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      NASHVILLE, TENN
      United States
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      February 20, 2006
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      Posted: February 11, 2012, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

      Read up on the Chi-Square and T-Squared in statistics.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        March 24, 2001
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        Posted: February 14, 2012, 2:49 pm - IP Logged

        General Question:  How can I determine if results are likely not due to randomness?

        That's like asking  when some one calls out heads how can you tell if they flipped a coin to come up with it.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          sully16's avatar - sharan
          Ringleader
          Michigan
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          October 28, 2009
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          Posted: February 26, 2012, 9:31 am - IP Logged

          The Bell curve,

          Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

          For a lead role in a cage?

           

                                                      From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

            JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
            The Quantum Master
            West Concord, MN
            United States
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            December 7, 2001
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            Posted: February 27, 2012, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
            Use at your own risk.

            Order is a Subset of Chaos
            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
            Wisdom is Not Censored
            Douglas Paul Smallish
            Jehocifer

              garyo1954's avatar - garyo
              Dallas, Texas
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              Posted: February 27, 2012, 12:47 pm - IP Logged

              LMAO....I Agree!

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                bgonçalves
                Brasil
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                Posted: March 2, 2012, 9:22 am - IP Logged

                Hello, lorso. As in all probability and statistics is 80/20. The question is how the concept could apply 80/20 lottery, Maybe join monte carlo with the concept of pareto80/20! That is the bell curve with 80/20

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                  bgonçalves
                  Brasil
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                  Posted: March 2, 2012, 9:53 am - IP Logged

                  Hello, using monte carlo, and concept Pareto (80/20) could be such a lottery 49/6 taking advantage a conjuçao (associçao) favorable pairs and trios, six positions in the lottery 49/6 or other lottery because we need to see who is coming in who draws It's not who came out with whom, male or female! Ahhhh, but even numbers and odd   In twos and threes.

                    JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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                    July 13, 2004
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                    Posted: March 3, 2012, 5:30 pm - IP Logged

                    Hmmmm..

                    1,2,3,4,5

                    1,2,3,4,5

                    And the odds of 5 numbers repeating are? Odds of 5 numbers in sequence? Odd of 5 numbers in the same decade?....

                    1,2,3,4,x

                    1,2,3,4,x

                    And the odds of 4 numbers repeating are? Odds of 4 numbers in sequence? Odds if 4 numbers in the same deacade?

                    In other words, if you get results that are 1 in million chance happening repeatively over a small amount of draws...there is a problem.

                    Welcome to the California Fantasy 5.

                    You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                    Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.