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How long till the next big one?

Topic closed. 12 replies. Last post 5 years ago by JADELottery.

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The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
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December 7, 2001
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Posted: March 31, 2012, 11:44 am - IP Logged

Given the most recent data on the jackpot increases, excluding the last frenzy anomaly of 277 Million, we estimate it will be about 9-1/2 to 10 weeks of rollovers to reach the same level.

The Billion dollar prize is not far off from there.

Below is an approximate table of weeks of rollovers for different jackpot levels.

Mega Millions Rollovers
JackpotDrawsWeeks
100 Million94.5
500 Million199.5
1 Billion2110.5
5 Billion2512.5
10 Billion2713.5
50 Billion3015.0
100 Billion3115.5
500 Billion3216.0
1 Trillion3517.5

So, if it's not won through the next few months, about June we might see the Billion dollar prize.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
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Jehocifer

    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
    Belgium
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    February 27, 2012
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    Posted: March 31, 2012, 12:36 pm - IP Logged

    For Euromillions they split the pot for the second price winners.
    I wouldn't count on a much bigger pot.

      maximumfun's avatar - Lottery-030.jpg
      Lavender Rocket

      United States
      Member #124616
      March 16, 2012
      2642 Posts
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      Posted: March 31, 2012, 3:02 pm - IP Logged

      Given the most recent data on the jackpot increases, excluding the last frenzy anomaly of 277 Million, we estimate it will be about 9-1/2 to 10 weeks of rollovers to reach the same level.

      The Billion dollar prize is not far off from there.

      Below is an approximate table of weeks of rollovers for different jackpot levels.

      Mega Millions Rollovers
      JackpotDrawsWeeks
      100 Million94.5
      500 Million199.5
      1 Billion2110.5
      5 Billion2512.5
      10 Billion2713.5
      50 Billion3015.0
      100 Billion3115.5
      500 Billion3216.0
      1 Trillion3517.5

      So, if it's not won through the next few months, about June we might see the Billion dollar prize.

      I get the extrapolation here... but doesnt the law of dimishing marginal returns play into account also?  After 1 billion would it really go to 5 billion or hover around the 1 billion mark?  Obviously you have much more experience in this than I; these number simply shocked me into asking.

        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
        The Quantum Master
        West Concord, MN
        United States
        Member #21
        December 7, 2001
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        Posted: March 31, 2012, 3:43 pm - IP Logged

        I get the extrapolation here... but doesnt the law of dimishing marginal returns play into account also?  After 1 billion would it really go to 5 billion or hover around the 1 billion mark?  Obviously you have much more experience in this than I; these number simply shocked me into asking.

        that's why we say it's an approximation, we won't know till we get there.

        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
        Use at your own risk.

        Order is a Subset of Chaos
        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
        Wisdom is Not Censored
        Douglas Paul Smallish
        Jehocifer

          maximumfun's avatar - Lottery-030.jpg
          Lavender Rocket

          United States
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          March 16, 2012
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          Posted: March 31, 2012, 3:52 pm - IP Logged

          ok gotcha.  Thank you for your reply.


            United States
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            March 14, 2012
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            Posted: March 31, 2012, 9:45 pm - IP Logged

            it will be 10 years before it ever gets like this again...Mail For You

              time*treat's avatar - radar

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              Posted: April 1, 2012, 3:47 pm - IP Logged

              The "big one" will be next time someone upsets Fred Sanford. Thud
              Elizabeth! I'm coming to join ya, Honey! Blue Angel

              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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                Kentucky
                United States
                Member #32652
                February 14, 2006
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                Posted: April 5, 2012, 9:25 pm - IP Logged

                Given the most recent data on the jackpot increases, excluding the last frenzy anomaly of 277 Million, we estimate it will be about 9-1/2 to 10 weeks of rollovers to reach the same level.

                The Billion dollar prize is not far off from there.

                Below is an approximate table of weeks of rollovers for different jackpot levels.

                Mega Millions Rollovers
                JackpotDrawsWeeks
                100 Million94.5
                500 Million199.5
                1 Billion2110.5
                5 Billion2512.5
                10 Billion2713.5
                50 Billion3015.0
                100 Billion3115.5
                500 Billion3216.0
                1 Trillion3517.5

                So, if it's not won through the next few months, about June we might see the Billion dollar prize.

                The reason there was a $656 million jackpot, 652 million ticket were sold on the last drawing making it a statistical "must win" jackpot. If the $2 PB tickets are sold at the same level, the percentages would favor at least one winning ticket. The only real question is at what jackpot size will the betting frenzy begin.


                  United States
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                  March 26, 2012
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                  Posted: April 13, 2012, 9:21 pm - IP Logged

                  The "big one" will be next time someone upsets Fred Sanford. Thud
                  Elizabeth! I'm coming to join ya, Honey! Blue Angel

                  "Would you stop that"
                  Poor Lamont's typical reply, while rolling his eyes. 

                  I love that show. Especially Ester's "HO!  Glory!" - gets me howling.

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                    Appleton, Wi
                    United States
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                    October 24, 2011
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                    Posted: April 23, 2012, 10:28 am - IP Logged

                    lol

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                      Posted: April 25, 2012, 1:51 am - IP Logged

                      Now that the impossible has become possible, the jackpot will reach a one-time awesome jaw breaking $1, 900,000,000.00 dollars!  Want to take the annuity on this one?  Good idea, if you are young maybe or if you are old, leave to an trust fund---get some legal advice, but why do i?  It will be a one winner and it will be me! Hurray!

                        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                        The Quantum Master
                        West Concord, MN
                        United States
                        Member #21
                        December 7, 2001
                        3675 Posts
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                        Posted: April 29, 2012, 7:39 pm - IP Logged

                        Given the most recent data on the jackpot increases, excluding the last frenzy anomaly of 277 Million, we estimate it will be about 9-1/2 to 10 weeks of rollovers to reach the same level.

                        The Billion dollar prize is not far off from there.

                        Below is an approximate table of weeks of rollovers for different jackpot levels.

                        Mega Millions Rollovers
                        JackpotDrawsWeeks
                        100 Million94.5
                        500 Million199.5
                        1 Billion2110.5
                        5 Billion2512.5
                        10 Billion2713.5
                        50 Billion3015.0
                        100 Billion3115.5
                        500 Billion3216.0
                        1 Trillion3517.5

                        So, if it's not won through the next few months, about June we might see the Billion dollar prize.

                        8 draws and the jackpot is at 102 Million for 2012-05-01.

                        a little better than expected.

                        - correction -

                        ahh, 9 draws if you include the starting jackpot draw.

                        8 rollovers though.

                        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                        Use at your own risk.

                        Order is a Subset of Chaos
                        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                        Wisdom is Not Censored
                        Douglas Paul Smallish
                        Jehocifer

                          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                          The Quantum Master
                          West Concord, MN
                          United States
                          Member #21
                          December 7, 2001
                          3675 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: May 23, 2012, 12:14 pm - IP Logged

                          reset a bit.

                          now it's out to about 2012-07-24 or -27.

                          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                          Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                          Use at your own risk.

                          Order is a Subset of Chaos
                          Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                          Wisdom is Not Censored
                          Douglas Paul Smallish
                          Jehocifer