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What do you consider a good test of your system?

Topic closed. 8 replies. Last post 5 years ago by tntea.

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New Member

United States
Member #126844
April 17, 2012
9 Posts
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Posted: April 17, 2012, 11:14 pm - IP Logged

Hey guys, new to LP and playing the lottery in general. I got interested after seeing the 640m

jackpot a couple of weeks ago. I've always thought I had zero chance of winning but after spending

a few hours hacking up some code and testing some ideas I think my chances could be slightly better than

zero especially at hitting a 5-0. Anyway I've played 4 drawings including the big one and I've hit

a 3-0 and a 1-1 playing 20 tickets at each drawing. Not great but I'm happy so far because my

losers are in the ballpark and I'm seeing the same patterns in the winners.

 

Anyway... to my question. I'm not a huge fan of back testing because I think you may tend

to gravitate toward creating a GREAT system for picking past winners but be worthless at

picking new winners. But I've found that leaving out the most recent data and testing to

see how often you hit those seems to be a reasonable method. My system is picking 15-20 5-0's

and a lot more 4-0's in a 100K of picks. I'm curious how that compares to what you guys are seeing.

Overall the 4-0 and 5-0 seems to hit at 62% and 77% better than random after preliminary

testing. The powerball is another matter and I've not come up with anything that is better than

random but I'm just getting started and I've got a lot to learn.

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    cleveland ohio
    United States
    Member #65897
    October 9, 2008
    275 Posts
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    Posted: April 18, 2012, 12:35 am - IP Logged

    Welcome to the board first off. Hurray!

    You will find a great deal of excellent people that share all sorts of data and ideas on how to try to tackle the monster we call the lottery. I agree in back testing seems to always force the system into either 1 of 2 groups, It works currently then tapers off or it is forced to work in past results and doesnt show great results gong forward.

    What most of us I would assume agree on is systems will run hot and cold so having more then 1 and tracking them helps alot to switch to the system that is working currently. I personally have a problem of sticking with a system that was hitting to long and not moving on the system that is hitting until im into its middle run instead of jumping in early on.

    Its a learning process and with the great group here well worth the discussion on how and what we do.

      aquariuslottery's avatar - AquariusLotteryLogo
      Vancouver BC
      Canada
      Member #96078
      August 22, 2010
      110 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 18, 2012, 1:30 am - IP Logged

      I undestand your skepticism towards backtrack. Still, I believe this is the best method

      to verify performance of any system. While it is true that the past results do not guarantee

      the future ones they do demonstrate certain trends (winning streaks, for example) that

      can be used to one's advantage. I generally use backtrack going no farther than 30 draws

      back to predict only the very next draw. After updating the stats with new numbers I backtrack

      again. What backtrack only does is to show the trends. And I strongly believe that in any numeric

      lottery SHORT TERM trends are the key to success.

      Aquarius

      ......

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
        Member #59354
        March 13, 2008
        3966 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 18, 2012, 3:52 pm - IP Logged

        Hey guys, new to LP and playing the lottery in general. I got interested after seeing the 640m

        jackpot a couple of weeks ago. I've always thought I had zero chance of winning but after spending

        a few hours hacking up some code and testing some ideas I think my chances could be slightly better than

        zero especially at hitting a 5-0. Anyway I've played 4 drawings including the big one and I've hit

        a 3-0 and a 1-1 playing 20 tickets at each drawing. Not great but I'm happy so far because my

        losers are in the ballpark and I'm seeing the same patterns in the winners.

         

        Anyway... to my question. I'm not a huge fan of back testing because I think you may tend

        to gravitate toward creating a GREAT system for picking past winners but be worthless at

        picking new winners. But I've found that leaving out the most recent data and testing to

        see how often you hit those seems to be a reasonable method. My system is picking 15-20 5-0's

        and a lot more 4-0's in a 100K of picks. I'm curious how that compares to what you guys are seeing.

        Overall the 4-0 and 5-0 seems to hit at 62% and 77% better than random after preliminary

        testing. The powerball is another matter and I've not come up with anything that is better than

        random but I'm just getting started and I've got a lot to learn.

        m-m

        I agree backtesting has no real value in regards to what happends next.  I only use it for testing

        software.

        I do track the stats for every filter, etc.. that I use but just to see how well the draws follow the

        matrix.  I am the digit man so to speak and do well using them as my primary filter.  My software

        includes many options from a full wheel to a filtered RNG.  I may be posting a download link for the

        newest version but it only includes power ball and mega millions games.  I don't play these games

        because of the odds.   You can find a lot of good stuff here at LP so just pick, choose and test until

        you come up with something that works for you.  I have been writting lottery software for 20 + years

        but have never sold a single copy.  I also don't believe in prediction but that does not mean a person

        can't  do way better then a QP.  Welcome to LP.

        RL

        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

          aquariuslottery's avatar - AquariusLotteryLogo
          Vancouver BC
          Canada
          Member #96078
          August 22, 2010
          110 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 19, 2012, 12:27 am - IP Logged

          I think you are heading in the right direction. You can see that all prediction methods, no matter how good they seem,

          fluctuate. That's a fact of life for ALL lotteries. Therefore, you can't concentrate on one prediction method only, no

          matter how successful it appears. Always have alternatives, preferably several. Backtrack them all. It is not uncommon

          that wins come in clusters, one after another, and if you happen to detect a beginning of a cluster early, you can benefit

          from it. Only consistent backtracking will tell you where the clusters are.

          Aquarius

          ......

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            bgonçalves
            Brasil
            Member #92564
            June 9, 2010
            2122 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: April 19, 2012, 8:38 am - IP Logged

            Hello, if you split a lottery in 4 parts, 4 sectors, industry will always have a zero or a number, and one or two more, then a sector will always have more numbers than others in bilhores sweepstakes, lotteries of 5.6 , ... 7 Of course you do not know which of the four sectors, but what happens then if a sector has zero or a number, you choose two numbers will always lose, and industry, which has two or more numbers to play only one number will always lose , we have to find this rotation system to filter, the filter will be a basic

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19825 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: April 22, 2012, 11:48 am - IP Logged

              Continue to test forward even if you have to go back a few drawings, this will not only test your system but train you how to best use it to produce winners. 

              I find what might be a bad decision for a single drawing can be a good decision in general if you are not trying to win a jackpot every drawing but simply trying win a jackpot eventually.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

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                New Member

                United States
                Member #126844
                April 17, 2012
                9 Posts
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                Posted: April 23, 2012, 1:54 pm - IP Logged

                Thanks for the welcome and great input. Hope I can contribute as I have time. Looks like I'm addicted to finding a system

                that works... haha... winning anything big will just be a bonus.

                  tntea's avatar - Lottery-059.jpg

                  United States
                  Member #5344
                  June 30, 2004
                  23641 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: April 29, 2012, 9:22 pm - IP Logged

                  Thanks for the welcome and great input. Hope I can contribute as I have time. Looks like I'm addicted to finding a system

                  that works... haha... winning anything big will just be a bonus.

                  Wink Welcome to LP.  Your goals sound familiar... Enjoy!

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