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# USA MM test run of various pick methods

Topic closed. 25 replies. Last post 6 years ago by x1kosmic.

 Page 1 of 2

Greece
Member #2815
November 18, 2003
502 Posts
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 Posted: August 9, 2012, 1:34 pm - IP Logged

Given the recent run on 28 picked numbers, I propose a different amount of numbers to be picked. The sweet spot seems to be 18 numbers (not too hard, not easy too and with meaningful odds layout). 18 numbers picked have the following odds:

1 match = 1 in 2.87

2 matches = 1 in 2.96

3 matches = 1 in 6.66

4 matches = 1 in 32.85

5 matches=1 in 445.82

The aim is really to show that a prediction is possible by beating natural odds. The contestants can use whatever method they want. The rules are simple, pick 18 numbers and 1-3 numbers for MegaBall (to make this a bit easier too), either once or at every draw. If you want to give details of the pick method used, feel free to do so. We may draw some conclusions out of this in the long run about the various approaches used. Getting a 5 match with such odds is really hard but if someone can do it, it will be a brilliant success and it will stand out of the rest for sure.

For a starter, I suppose anyone who can deliver 2x the odds for 3 & 4 hits does a decent job in picking numbers, so anyone who can trap within 10 successive draws 3 (or more) 3 matches and hopefully 1 (or more) 4 matches is rather gifted and his method is worthy exploring! After each set of 10 draws, we can have a summary on the wins achieved by each contestant to declare the winner and the best method for that time period.

This test run starts with the next MM draw on August 10 2012. If a contestant do not enter numbers for a draw, his previous selection will be used (unless if his/her pick method is to be used in successive draws anyway). Let the picks begin!

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 2:23 pm - IP Logged

18 numbers * (1-3)  mb's?

Greece
Member #2815
November 18, 2003
502 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 2:30 pm - IP Logged

Yes, 18 numbers and 1-3 MB. We could fix it to 3 MB's to be comparable among participants but the odds comparison will really show against the main field 5/56. I'll post 3 MBs anyway.

Greece
Member #2815
November 18, 2003
502 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

For 12 August 2012:

GAT 864216 : 01 02 05 09 16 17 20 21 22 33 36 39 42 43 47 50 52 55  [data reference D=100 SD=20 RF=0]

GAT 3584375 (MB) : 12 32 17  [D=50 SD=20 RF=3]

My submission is GAT 864216 + GAT 3584375

Monitored for their progress:

GAT 494006 : 03 12 15 17 22 24 27 29 36 37 39 41 42 45 50 52 53 55 [D=100 SD=20 RF=0]

GAT 2488985 (MB) : 32 17 12  [D=50 SD=20 RF=3]

United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

Me hopes you understand that with 3 bonus balls you are playing 25,704 combinations.

There is no way around the number of combinations it produces.

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20166 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

Me hopes you understand that with 3 bonus balls you are playing 25,704 combinations.

There is no way around the number of combinations it produces.

That'a only a quarter of the 98280 combinations you would play with 28 numbers and one bonus number.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one *

NEW YORK
United States
Member #90535
April 29, 2010
12277 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:36 pm - IP Logged

Given the recent run on 28 picked numbers, I propose a different amount of numbers to be picked. The sweet spot seems to be 18 numbers (not too hard, not easy too and with meaningful odds layout). 18 numbers picked have the following odds:

1 match = 1 in 2.87

2 matches = 1 in 2.96

3 matches = 1 in 6.66

4 matches = 1 in 32.85

5 matches=1 in 445.82

The aim is really to show that a prediction is possible by beating natural odds. The contestants can use whatever method they want. The rules are simple, pick 18 numbers and 1-3 numbers for MegaBall (to make this a bit easier too), either once or at every draw. If you want to give details of the pick method used, feel free to do so. We may draw some conclusions out of this in the long run about the various approaches used. Getting a 5 match with such odds is really hard but if someone can do it, it will be a brilliant success and it will stand out of the rest for sure.

For a starter, I suppose anyone who can deliver 2x the odds for 3 & 4 hits does a decent job in picking numbers, so anyone who can trap within 10 successive draws 3 (or more) 3 matches and hopefully 1 (or more) 4 matches is rather gifted and his method is worthy exploring! After each set of 10 draws, we can have a summary on the wins achieved by each contestant to declare the winner and the best method for that time period.

This test run starts with the next MM draw on August 10 2012. If a contestant do not enter numbers for a draw, his previous selection will be used (unless if his/her pick method is to be used in successive draws anyway). Let the picks begin!

NEW YORK
United States
Member #90535
April 29, 2010
12277 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:38 pm - IP Logged

That'a only a quarter of the 98280 combinations you would play with 28 numbers and one bonus number.

I will never play a lottery ran by you.

NEW YORK
United States
Member #90535
April 29, 2010
12277 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:40 pm - IP Logged

Me hopes you understand that with 3 bonus balls you are playing 25,704 combinations.

There is no way around the number of combinations it produces.

How are these crunched numbers helping lottery post members to win a jackpot?

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20166 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

I will never play a lottery ran by you.

Why would you think I would ever run a lottery?  Are you that dumb or just making conversation?

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one *

United States
Member #116268
September 7, 2011
20244 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2012, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

Why would you think I would ever run a lottery?  Are you that dumb or just making conversation?

Thrifty is a bit dysfunctional RJOh, (like all Lefties) I'm certain he was referring to my ridiculous 98.280 lines per draw lottery (that I run?).

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20166 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 10, 2012, 3:29 am - IP Logged

Thrifty is a bit dysfunctional RJOh, (like all Lefties) I'm certain he was referring to my ridiculous 98.280 lines per draw lottery (that I run?).

He probably never heard that saying

"It's better to say nothing and thought to be stupid than to speak and remove all doubt".

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one *

Greece
Member #2815
November 18, 2003
502 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 10, 2012, 6:02 am - IP Logged

Me hopes you understand that with 3 bonus balls you are playing 25,704 combinations.

There is no way around the number of combinations it produces.

Total combinations are not a concern here. What we try to show is that there are approaches capable to perform above odds. Formulating a daily strategy around 18 or 28 picked numbers probably is out of reach for everyone around here. But the first step towards a strategy is to be able and perform above odds however, this is step No1. Depending how much better we perform, we can discuss on a possible strategy then and if adding more megaballs is worth to do or not. Till then, the aim is to show that prediction is possible up to an extend and possibly figure out which method delivers better odds short & long term.

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 10, 2012, 7:26 am - IP Logged

If I check with Covermaster for 4 if 4 pick 5, I have to play 732 combinations.
A 4/5 won't pay the tickets!

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123700
February 27, 2012
4035 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 10, 2012, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

Odds are x/y, a kind of avg. That means you can score below or above.
How do you want to prove?

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