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USA MM test run of various pick methods

Topic closed. 25 replies. Last post 4 years ago by x1kosmic.

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Greece
Member #2815
November 18, 2003
502 Posts
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Posted: August 9, 2012, 1:34 pm - IP Logged

Given the recent run on 28 picked numbers, I propose a different amount of numbers to be picked. The sweet spot seems to be 18 numbers (not too hard, not easy too and with meaningful odds layout). 18 numbers picked have the following odds:

1 match = 1 in 2.87

2 matches = 1 in 2.96

3 matches = 1 in 6.66

4 matches = 1 in 32.85

5 matches=1 in 445.82

The aim is really to show that a prediction is possible by beating natural odds. The contestants can use whatever method they want. The rules are simple, pick 18 numbers and 1-3 numbers for MegaBall (to make this a bit easier too), either once or at every draw. If you want to give details of the pick method used, feel free to do so. We may draw some conclusions out of this in the long run about the various approaches used. Getting a 5 match with such odds is really hard but if someone can do it, it will be a brilliant success and it will stand out of the rest for sure.

For a starter, I suppose anyone who can deliver 2x the odds for 3 & 4 hits does a decent job in picking numbers, so anyone who can trap within 10 successive draws 3 (or more) 3 matches and hopefully 1 (or more) 4 matches is rather gifted and his method is worthy exploring! After each set of 10 draws, we can have a summary on the wins achieved by each contestant to declare the winner and the best method for that time period.

This test run starts with the next MM draw on August 10 2012. If a contestant do not enter numbers for a draw, his previous selection will be used (unless if his/her pick method is to be used in successive draws anyway). Let the picks begin!

    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
    Belgium
    Member #123700
    February 27, 2012
    4035 Posts
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    Posted: August 9, 2012, 2:23 pm - IP Logged

    MM

    18 numbers * (1-3)  mb's?

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      Greece
      Member #2815
      November 18, 2003
      502 Posts
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      Posted: August 9, 2012, 2:30 pm - IP Logged

      Yes, 18 numbers and 1-3 MB. We could fix it to 3 MB's to be comparable among participants but the odds comparison will really show against the main field 5/56. I'll post 3 MBs anyway.

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        Greece
        Member #2815
        November 18, 2003
        502 Posts
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        Posted: August 9, 2012, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

        For 12 August 2012:

        GAT 864216 : 01 02 05 09 16 17 20 21 22 33 36 39 42 43 47 50 52 55  [data reference D=100 SD=20 RF=0]

        GAT 3584375 (MB) : 12 32 17  [D=50 SD=20 RF=3]

        My submission is GAT 864216 + GAT 3584375

         

        Monitored for their progress:

        GAT 494006 : 03 12 15 17 22 24 27 29 36 37 39 41 42 45 50 52 53 55 [D=100 SD=20 RF=0]

        GAT 2488985 (MB) : 32 17 12  [D=50 SD=20 RF=3]


          United States
          Member #116268
          September 7, 2011
          20244 Posts
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          Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

          Me hopes you understand that with 3 bonus balls you are playing 25,704 combinations.

          There is no way around the number of combinations it produces.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19896 Posts
            Online
            Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

            Me hopes you understand that with 3 bonus balls you are playing 25,704 combinations.

            There is no way around the number of combinations it produces.

            That'a only a quarter of the 98280 combinations you would play with 28 numbers and one bonus number.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
              NEW YORK
              United States
              Member #90535
              April 29, 2010
              12095 Posts
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              Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:36 pm - IP Logged

              Given the recent run on 28 picked numbers, I propose a different amount of numbers to be picked. The sweet spot seems to be 18 numbers (not too hard, not easy too and with meaningful odds layout). 18 numbers picked have the following odds:

              1 match = 1 in 2.87

              2 matches = 1 in 2.96

              3 matches = 1 in 6.66

              4 matches = 1 in 32.85

              5 matches=1 in 445.82

              The aim is really to show that a prediction is possible by beating natural odds. The contestants can use whatever method they want. The rules are simple, pick 18 numbers and 1-3 numbers for MegaBall (to make this a bit easier too), either once or at every draw. If you want to give details of the pick method used, feel free to do so. We may draw some conclusions out of this in the long run about the various approaches used. Getting a 5 match with such odds is really hard but if someone can do it, it will be a brilliant success and it will stand out of the rest for sure.

              For a starter, I suppose anyone who can deliver 2x the odds for 3 & 4 hits does a decent job in picking numbers, so anyone who can trap within 10 successive draws 3 (or more) 3 matches and hopefully 1 (or more) 4 matches is rather gifted and his method is worthy exploring! After each set of 10 draws, we can have a summary on the wins achieved by each contestant to declare the winner and the best method for that time period.

              This test run starts with the next MM draw on August 10 2012. If a contestant do not enter numbers for a draw, his previous selection will be used (unless if his/her pick method is to be used in successive draws anyway). Let the picks begin!

              Buying more lottery tickets?

              US Flag

              PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
                NEW YORK
                United States
                Member #90535
                April 29, 2010
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                Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:38 pm - IP Logged

                That'a only a quarter of the 98280 combinations you would play with 28 numbers and one bonus number.

                I will never play a lottery ran by you.

                US Flag

                PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                  THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
                  NEW YORK
                  United States
                  Member #90535
                  April 29, 2010
                  12095 Posts
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                  Posted: August 9, 2012, 4:40 pm - IP Logged

                  Me hopes you understand that with 3 bonus balls you are playing 25,704 combinations.

                  There is no way around the number of combinations it produces.

                  How are these crunched numbers helping lottery post members to win a jackpot?

                  US Flag

                  PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19896 Posts
                    Online
                    Posted: August 9, 2012, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

                    I will never play a lottery ran by you.

                    Why would you think I would ever run a lottery?  Are you that dumb or just making conversation?

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       


                      United States
                      Member #116268
                      September 7, 2011
                      20244 Posts
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                      Posted: August 9, 2012, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

                      Why would you think I would ever run a lottery?  Are you that dumb or just making conversation?

                      Thrifty is a bit dysfunctional RJOh, (like all Lefties) I'm certain he was referring to my ridiculous 98.280 lines per draw lottery (that I run?).

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
                        Member #9
                        March 24, 2001
                        19896 Posts
                        Online
                        Posted: August 10, 2012, 3:29 am - IP Logged

                        Thrifty is a bit dysfunctional RJOh, (like all Lefties) I'm certain he was referring to my ridiculous 98.280 lines per draw lottery (that I run?).

                        He probably never heard that saying

                        "It's better to say nothing and thought to be stupid than to speak and remove all doubt".

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          lottoarchitect's avatar - waveform

                          Greece
                          Member #2815
                          November 18, 2003
                          502 Posts
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                          Posted: August 10, 2012, 6:02 am - IP Logged

                          Me hopes you understand that with 3 bonus balls you are playing 25,704 combinations.

                          There is no way around the number of combinations it produces.

                          Total combinations are not a concern here. What we try to show is that there are approaches capable to perform above odds. Formulating a daily strategy around 18 or 28 picked numbers probably is out of reach for everyone around here. But the first step towards a strategy is to be able and perform above odds however, this is step No1. Depending how much better we perform, we can discuss on a possible strategy then and if adding more megaballs is worth to do or not. Till then, the aim is to show that prediction is possible up to an extend and possibly figure out which method delivers better odds short & long term.

                            SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                            Economy class
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                            February 27, 2012
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                            Posted: August 10, 2012, 7:26 am - IP Logged

                            If I check with Covermaster for 4 if 4 pick 5, I have to play 732 combinations.
                            A 4/5 won't pay the tickets!

                              SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                              Economy class
                              Belgium
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                              February 27, 2012
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                              Posted: August 10, 2012, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

                              Odds are x/y, a kind of avg. That means you can score below or above.
                              How do you want to prove?