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Probability of a Rollover on the Powerball 500M Jackpot.

Topic closed. 3 replies. Last post 4 years ago by grengrad.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
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Posted: November 28, 2012, 9:38 am - IP Logged

Based on the values for the cash value on the last jackpot, and the cash value of the current jackpot - should it hold - the Powerball authorities expect that they will sell $358M worth of tickets, which translates, because of the $2 cost per ticket, into 179M tickets.

On this basis, the Poisson distribution for randomized tickets suggest the following probabilities for numbers of winners, and the possibility of yet another rollover:

 

k,   number of winnersp(m,k)
035.99%
136.78%
218.79%
3

6.40%

41.64%
50.33%
60.06%
70.01%

 

The most probable outcome is a single winner, the second most probable outcome is yet another rollover.    However it is most probable that there will be one or more winners.

The expectation value for this lottery drawing, because of the $2 ticket is an unimpressive 0.89.    It is not likely to exceed 1.00 and become a "good bet" without yet another rollover.

Play responsibly.


    United States
    Member #116268
    September 7, 2011
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    Posted: November 28, 2012, 9:52 am - IP Logged

    Does "most probable" mean better than 50/50  chance??

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      New Jersey
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      Posted: November 28, 2012, 10:05 am - IP Logged

      No, it means that it is most likely.     The percentages in the right column show that there is a 36 out of 100 chance of a rollover and a 37 of 100 chance of there being a single winning ticket.

      There is a 74 out of 100 chance that there will be one or more winners.

        grengrad's avatar - nw rogue.jpg
        Raleigh
        United States
        Member #49057
        January 17, 2007
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        Posted: November 28, 2012, 12:57 pm - IP Logged

        Thanks Prob988