|Posted: November 28, 2012, 9:38 am - IP Logged|
Based on the values for the cash value on the last jackpot, and the cash value of the current jackpot - should it hold - the Powerball authorities expect that they will sell $358M worth of tickets, which translates, because of the $2 cost per ticket, into 179M tickets.
On this basis, the Poisson distribution for randomized tickets suggest the following probabilities for numbers of winners, and the possibility of yet another rollover:
|k, number of winners||p(m,k)|
The most probable outcome is a single winner, the second most probable outcome is yet another rollover. However it is most probable that there will be one or more winners.
The expectation value for this lottery drawing, because of the $2 ticket is an unimpressive 0.89. It is not likely to exceed 1.00 and become a "good bet" without yet another rollover.