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NY Lotto - rollovers shrinking again

Topic closed. 6 replies. Last post 4 years ago by RedStang.

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mediabrat's avatar - 18z0typ
upstate NY
United States
Member #108791
March 31, 2011
549 Posts
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Posted: November 28, 2012, 12:46 pm - IP Logged

Lost in the Powerball hoopla is a bit of news that makes one wonder about the future of New York's Lotto game.  Before NY joined the two big multi-state games, Lotto would often pay out some rather healthy jackpots, getting up into the tens of millions.  The starting jackpot would alternate between $2M and $3M (I don't know if there was ever a rhyme or reason behind which one was chosen when) and it would roll over at least a couple million bucks at a time; the rollovers would obviously increase as the jackpots themselves climbed higher.

The decline started sometime around NY joining Mega Millions in 2002; as MM grew in popularity, the higher jackpots and better overall payouts began to take their toll on Lotto.  (The anemic prize pool -- 40% of sales, the worst such ratio in the nation -- is most likely to blame; in my opinion, the parimutuel nature of the prize structure doesn't help matters any.)  Things only got worse when NY signed on to Powerball in 2010.  A botched attempt at renewing interest in Lotto -- Lotto Extra, a $1 add-on which introduced an extra ball (drawn like the Mega Ball and Powerball) and another, higher set of prize tiers -- and the addition of Sweet Million (a 6/40 game to Lotto's 6/59) have also cannibalized players' interest.  Eventually, the jackpot progression would standardize at $3 million to start out and rollovers of $500K.  That's still not terrible compared to some other states' games, but it's a long way away from Lotto's glory days.

All of this brings us to the present day.  Last Wednesday's drawing (November 21) for $8 million did not produce a winner.  Instead of rolling over to $8.5 million, the jackpot only increased by $300,000.  The same would hold true for Saturday's drawing; tonight's jackpot is now $8.6 million.

One has to wonder if this is a bellwether for future cuts to Lotto.  How long until rollovers are slashed to $250K, $200K, or less?  Will we soon see starting jackpots of $2 million rather than $3 million?  At what point does the Lottery decide enough is enough and order a complete revamp?

Patriot

    RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
    NY
    United States
    Member #121961
    January 21, 2012
    3157 Posts
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    Posted: November 28, 2012, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

    Wow only 300k. Except for PB & MM and few scratchers, i stopped playing almost all NY lotto.  I got to Conn for cash5(100,000), lucky for life and scratchers. They don't introduce any new games like the other states.

      Avatar
      NY
      United States
      Member #23835
      October 16, 2005
      3471 Posts
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      Posted: November 28, 2012, 3:41 pm - IP Logged

      NY is a really crappy state for providing realistic information about the games. I don't think they've offered information on cash values for 5 years or more. I'm not sure how they fund the lotto prizes, but here's some approximate info based on how many winners there were for the last lotto drawing.

      There were 17,228 winners of the lowest prize, and 706 winners of the 4th place prize. The odds of winning those prizes are 1 in 48.08 and 1 in 1,089.92. Multiplying the number of winners by the odds we get 828,322 and 769,483 as a likely range for the number of tickets sold. The total payout for all prize levels but the jackpot was about $90,000 (including the 2nd place prize that soembody will eventually collect). As a rough figure the $300k jackpot increase means about $215,000 for the cash value. That's a total of just over $300,000 from sales of $750 to $800k.

      That's not great, but it's right where it should be if they put 40% of sales into prizes. It used to be 50%, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they changed it and didn't bother publicizing it or announced it as quietly as they could.

      Of course some of the blame has to go tot he players, too. I've watched people buy MM tickets for a $12 million drawing when lotto was close to that or even higher. Why somebody does that when the lotto odds  are about 7 times better escapes me. I'll take 7 times more likely to walk away with  $4 million over the lousier chance to get $5 million every time.

      BTW, you noticed the most recent 2nd place prze? After the jackpot was won it continued to roll, and was finally hit at  about $520,000. Based on increases in that amount I'm guessing that sales  really didn't increase. I guess the vast majority of people only look at the advertised jackpot and decide without having a clue about the other details.

        GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
        NY State
        United States
        Member #92609
        June 10, 2010
        3685 Posts
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        Posted: November 29, 2012, 8:30 pm - IP Logged

        NY is a really crappy state for providing realistic information about the games. I don't think they've offered information on cash values for 5 years or more. I'm not sure how they fund the lotto prizes, but here's some approximate info based on how many winners there were for the last lotto drawing.

        There were 17,228 winners of the lowest prize, and 706 winners of the 4th place prize. The odds of winning those prizes are 1 in 48.08 and 1 in 1,089.92. Multiplying the number of winners by the odds we get 828,322 and 769,483 as a likely range for the number of tickets sold. The total payout for all prize levels but the jackpot was about $90,000 (including the 2nd place prize that soembody will eventually collect). As a rough figure the $300k jackpot increase means about $215,000 for the cash value. That's a total of just over $300,000 from sales of $750 to $800k.

        That's not great, but it's right where it should be if they put 40% of sales into prizes. It used to be 50%, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they changed it and didn't bother publicizing it or announced it as quietly as they could.

        Of course some of the blame has to go tot he players, too. I've watched people buy MM tickets for a $12 million drawing when lotto was close to that or even higher. Why somebody does that when the lotto odds  are about 7 times better escapes me. I'll take 7 times more likely to walk away with  $4 million over the lousier chance to get $5 million every time.

        BTW, you noticed the most recent 2nd place prze? After the jackpot was won it continued to roll, and was finally hit at  about $520,000. Based on increases in that amount I'm guessing that sales  really didn't increase. I guess the vast majority of people only look at the advertised jackpot and decide without having a clue about the other details.

        I have my issues with The New York Lottery too...  I play Sweet Million due to the relatively low odds to win a million dollars, it's hard to find odds like that to win a million bucks elsewhere.  But players in NY havent embraced the game because it doesnt produce many million dollar winners.  They dont play, so the coverage is lousy and therefore few top prize winners are produced. And, the lower tier prizes in Sweet Million are awful. 

        In the past two years Connecticut has "one-upped" NY with Million Dollar SuperDraw.  It's a raffle, a max of 275,000 tickets will be sold, and they're 10 bucks each. There's one top prize of one million dollars.  If they dont sell out, then the odds are lower. Connecticut has done this on January 1st and July 4th of 2011 and 2012, and tickets are on sale now for a January 1, 2013 drawing.  I bought ten tickets.  You'd think NY would see what's happening next door and do something similar.  I'm not holding my breath.

        Compare SuperDraw's 275,000 to 1 odd's with NY's Take5 which has 575,00 to 1 odds.  If I hit five numbers in Take5, I'd be lucky to get $70,000 (before taxes) because it's parimutuel.  Usually there's more than one first prize winner.

        About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

          CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
          Whiskey Island
          United States
          Member #90216
          April 24, 2010
          12724 Posts
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          Posted: November 29, 2012, 10:27 pm - IP Logged

          Next 6 Draws :

          17 - 24 - 27 - 28 - 50 - 59

            CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
            Whiskey Island
            United States
            Member #90216
            April 24, 2010
            12724 Posts
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            Posted: December 2, 2012, 4:45 am - IP Logged

            Next 6 Draws :

            17 - 24 - 27 - 28 - 50 - 59

            Lotto
            Saturday, December 1, 2012
            30-35-39-48-50-59

              RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
              NY
              United States
              Member #121961
              January 21, 2012
              3157 Posts
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              Posted: December 2, 2012, 12:02 pm - IP Logged

              Just looked at the last NYL results and it shows 19,000 winners. I'll guess and say maybe 500,000 bought tickets. Thats bad considering NY'ers love their lotto. They need to do a major overhaul with these games. Even the scratchers have gotten bad. Nothing over $50 and i got a bunch, but i go to Conn and find 100 & 500 winners.