|Posted: November 28, 2012, 8:31 pm - IP Logged|
The upgraded jackpot will result in a new rollover probability. It would appear that the lottery expects to sell $460M worth of tickets for this drawing, for a total number of tickets of 230M.
The Poisson distribution for this number of tickets, assumed to be randomly chosen, given the odds, gives the following rollover and number of winners probability:
|k, number of winners||p(m,k)|
This suggests that the most likely outcome is one winning ticket. There is roughly a 1 in 4 chance of yet another rollover, in which case the jackpot would be huge, but more likely to involve more than a single winner.
The expectation value for this jackpot, based on this distribution and the odds and $2 cost of the ticket is 0.90.
Play sensibly and if you win, don't let it ruin your life.