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Probability of a rollover for $550M Jackpot.

Topic closed. 2 replies. Last post 4 years ago by HoLeeKau.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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Posted: November 28, 2012, 8:31 pm - IP Logged

The upgraded jackpot will result in a new rollover probability.    It would appear that the lottery expects to sell $460M worth of tickets for this drawing, for a total number of tickets of 230M.

The Poisson distribution for this number of tickets, assumed to be randomly chosen, given the odds, gives the following rollover and number of winners probability:

 

k,   number of winnersp(m,k)
026.88%
135.31%
223.20%
310.16%
43.34%
50.88%
60.19%
70.04%
8

0.01%

This suggests that the most likely outcome is one winning ticket.     There is roughly a 1 in 4 chance of yet another rollover, in which case the jackpot would be huge, but more likely to involve more than a single winner.

The expectation value for this jackpot, based on this distribution and the odds and $2 cost of the ticket is 0.90.   

Play sensibly and if you win, don't let it ruin your life.

    ressuccess's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg

    United States
    Member #93164
    June 23, 2010
    1322 Posts
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    Posted: November 29, 2012, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

    Somebody in Arizona and Missouri split a $580 million Powerball Jackpot Prob988.

      HoLeeKau's avatar - YheaShea
      Idaho
      United States
      Member #94283
      July 17, 2010
      2284 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: November 29, 2012, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

      Last night Nightline said only 60% of ticket combos were sold, but when I saw the birthday numbers drawn I figured it would be won.