NFL Championship Games, Spread and O/UPrev TopicNext Topic

• Coin Toss

  

  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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  January 17, 2006
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  Jan 14, 2013, 11:57 pm

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  AFC

  Baltimore

  @ New England

  New England -9.5

  O/U 51

  NFC

  San Francisco -4

  @ Atlanta

  O/U 47.5

  __________________________________

  Who are you picking, straight up and with the spread, O/U?

  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners. 

  

  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
• LottoGuyBC

  

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  Jan 15, 2013, 12:48 pm

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  gonna go with the gut:

  BAL +9.5, BAL to Win, & BAL/NE OVER 51.0

  49ERS -4, 49ERS to Win, & SF/ATL UNDER 47.5

  Brother vs Brother for the Super Bowl???

  I don't mind seeing 49ERS vs Pats for the Championship

  "You have to be in it to win it!"
• Coin Toss

  

  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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  January 17, 2006
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  Jan 16, 2013, 12:07 am

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  Hey there LottoGuyBC,

  I know one of the 'rules of thumb' is that once they reach the playoffs the spread exists solely for the benefit of the bookies, and another is a double-digit dog is an automatic bet in the NFL and +9.5 sure is close to 10!

  There used to be a pre-game show in the U.S. on Sundays with a commentator named (late) Pete Axthelm. This one partuclar Sunday he went off on a tangent about power ratings, offenseis and defensive stats, is the QB figthing with his girlfriend, etc.... He ramble on for a solid ten minutes and then he had a stage hand throw a football out onto the set and just let it go, and said, "So in the long run, you're betting on how something shaped like this is going to bounce."

  

   

  There was a writer named Ernie Kaufman who called himself the "Bookie Destroyer" that insisted the pointspread only affects 11% of games. Not sure about that one.

  Good Luck with your picks.

  

  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners. 

  

  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
• LottoGuyBC

  

  British Columbia
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  Jan 16, 2013, 12:48 pm

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  thx CT

  my co-workers says the 'rule of thumb' is to bet opposite of me and they are guaranteed winners

      

  "You have to be in it to win it!"
• ressuccess

  

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  Jan 16, 2013, 12:59 pm

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  I pick San Francisco (currently -5, but I bid 110 units to win 100 when the line is at -3 and 110 units to win 100 units when I predict the game will be under 48) and Baltimore (currently +9.5 to bid 110 units to win 100 units and 110 units to win 100 units when I predict the game will be under 51). Good luck to everyone. Lets see who's correct in the game and ATS.
• LottoGuyBC

  

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  Jan 16, 2013, 1:04 pm

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  In response to ressuccess

  Quote: Originally posted by ressuccess on Jan 16, 2013

  I pick San Francisco (currently -5, but I bid 110 units to win 100 when the line is at -3 and 110 units to win 100 units when I predict the game will be under 48) and Baltimore (currently +9.5 to bid 110 units to win 100 units and 110 units to win 100 units when I predict the game will be under 51). Good luck to everyone. Lets see who's correct in the game and ATS.

  Out for Season?

  "You have to be in it to win it!"
• haymaker

  

  Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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  Jan 17, 2013, 11:51 am

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  Yo CT,

  straight up 9ers over atl. 

  ne over ravens.

   

  w/ spread I'll still take 9ers , under 47

  but switch to ravens,  under 51

   

  also I bought in to a box pool for each game 4 boxes on each game $5 ea.

  and box pool for the SB 2 boxes @ $20 each

  not done yet nother guy is runnin a cheaper one for SB @ $5 a box.

  Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.
• haymaker

  

  Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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  Member #112,963
  June 29, 2011
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  Jan 17, 2013, 11:59 am

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  In response to LottoGuyBC

  Quote: Originally posted by LottoGuyBC on Jan 15, 2013

  gonna go with the gut:

  BAL +9.5, BAL to Win, & BAL/NE OVER 51.0

  49ERS -4, 49ERS to Win, & SF/ATL UNDER 47.5

  Brother vs Brother for the Super Bowl???

  I don't mind seeing 49ERS vs Pats for the Championship

  Yea, the bro vs bro would be cool, but they have met before in reg. season,

  don't remember this year or last ? have to go to nfl. com to check on that.

   

  But I agree if you want to see the 9ERs stomp NE.

  Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.
• haymaker

  

  Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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  June 29, 2011
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  Jan 17, 2013, 12:10 pm

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  In response to LottoGuyBC

  Quote: Originally posted by LottoGuyBC on Jan 16, 2013

  Out for Season?

  He said "regular season"

  Never did answer my ? in that thread, now locked.

  Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.
• LottoGuyBC

  

  British Columbia
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  Jan 17, 2013, 12:51 pm

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  In response to haymaker

  Quote: Originally posted by haymaker on Jan 17, 2013

  He said "regular season"

  Never did answer my ? in that thread, now locked.

   

  Locked Out

  "You have to be in it to win it!"
• LottoGuyBC

  

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  Jan 17, 2013, 12:54 pm

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  In response to haymaker

  Quote: Originally posted by haymaker on Jan 17, 2013

  Yea, the bro vs bro would be cool, but they have met before in reg. season,

  don't remember this year or last ? have to go to nfl. com to check on that.

   

  But I agree if you want to see the 9ERs stomp NE.

  

  Giselle -->  <-- Pats WRs

  "You have to be in it to win it!"
• haymaker

  

  Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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  Jan 17, 2013, 1:03 pm

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  In response to LottoGuyBC

  Quote: Originally posted by LottoGuyBC on Jan 17, 2013

  

  Giselle -->  <-- Pats WRs

  Good one ! LMAO

  Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.
• haymaker

  

  Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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  Jan 17, 2013, 2:14 pm

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  In response to haymaker

  Quote: Originally posted by haymaker on Jan 17, 2013

  Yea, the bro vs bro would be cool, but they have met before in reg. season,

  don't remember this year or last ? have to go to nfl. com to check on that.

   

  But I agree if you want to see the 9ERs stomp NE.

  9ERs vs ravens, last met wk. 12, 11/24/11

  final 16 to 6 ravens.

  Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.
• Coin Toss

  

  Zeta Reticuli Star System
  United States
  Member #30,469
  January 17, 2006
  11,791 Posts
  Offline
  Jan 21, 2013, 12:57 am

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  Good call on the bro vs bro LottoGuyBC.

  SF Push at -4, closing line looked like -3.5, Over 47.5

  Baltimore, dog, wins straight out (+23), Under 51.

  Opening line for the Super Bowl is San Francisco -4, O/U 48.

  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners. 

  

  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
• LottoGuyBC

  

  British Columbia
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  September 4, 2011
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  Jan 21, 2013, 7:25 am

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  In response to Coin Toss

  Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Jan 21, 2013

  Good call on the bro vs bro LottoGuyBC.

  SF Push at -4, closing line looked like -3.5, Over 47.5

  Baltimore, dog, wins straight out (+23), Under 51.

  Opening line for the Super Bowl is San Francisco -4, O/U 48.

  gut is saying Baltimore for the Super Bowl and Under 48

  may change when Feb 3 comes around

  "You have to be in it to win it!"