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How do you determine which scratch-off to buy?

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 4 years ago by jaggudada.

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redhot7's avatar - SetforLifeLogo
California
United States
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June 17, 2011
661 Posts
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Posted: February 9, 2013, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

Based on odds and available prizes and ticket price, how do you determine which scratch-off to buy? Is it just a matter of looking at cash odds alone or is it more complicated than that?

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    The land of Canals
    United States
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    January 7, 2013
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    Posted: February 10, 2013, 9:07 am - IP Logged

    I check the Remaing Prizes on the lottery's website to see how many big winning tickets are still out there

    and just hope my Lottery Angel decides to send good luck my way. Blue Angel

    “A day without sunshine is like, you know, night.” 
     Steve Martin

    Cool

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
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      Posted: February 11, 2013, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

      Easy, if it costs more than a dollar I don't buy it.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

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        New Member

        United States
        Member #136653
        December 15, 2012
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        Posted: February 16, 2013, 6:45 pm - IP Logged

        Be carefull with that method. I've been watching a game here in MO that's been out for 7 years. They quit supplying retailers with the ticket about 2 Months ago and put out the 180 notice to collect on DEC 31st. I was told when they stop supplying retailers they pick up the remaining tickets when there sales rep's bring them new tickets. The game is a $10 game called lifetime riches with a top prize of 50k for life or $800,000 lump sum.

         Like you I looked at remaining prizes and set out on a mission to win one of the remaining big prizes. But should have pulled out the pen and paper and put the math to it first. The remaining prizes were as follows. 50k for life- 2, $20,000 -8, $10,000 -39, $1,000 - 779, $500 - 1639. With a total remaing prizes of 654,437.

        I called the lottery office and asked which retailers still had the ticket since none could be found around here for quite some time. After an hour they called back and said that only 3 stores in the whole state still had the ticket. 1 store had 57 left and the other had 12. I  Didn't ask about the other store since it was to far away. I called the 2  stores and told them I was on my way A 2 hour drive. Bought the 57 tickets from the first store and went to the other and they had sold there's out. Got $285 out of my $570.  I'm not mad, I took the chance that's why I play But the numbers just didn't add up.

        I took the 654,437 remaining prizes as there website states and reduced it by 10% for winners that people throw away (yes it does happen). That left 588,993 winning tickets. Divided that by 60,the number of tickets in a package and got 9,816 packages of nothing but winners. I took the 588,993 and multiplyed it by the odds of 3.30 and came up with 1,943,676 tickets. divided that by 60. 32,394 package of tickets should have remained.  When they pull the tickets back I'm sure they know right where to go first.

         Anyway this is just my observation. I'll still play.

          maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
          Massachusetts
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          April 14, 2006
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          Posted: February 16, 2013, 7:06 pm - IP Logged

          I used to buy tickets that had a few big prizes remaining and had been around for a long time meaning people had bought most of the losers as they attempted to catch the winners but then I realized that if the Grand Prizes had been won by people who delayed bringing the ticket to the claims office, it would read on the website that the ticket is still in circulation which I would mistakenly think that its a prize I could still win. I gave up on scratch off tickets and haven't looked back since.

          That money's gone fo ever

            Romancandle's avatar - moon
            Upacreek
            United States
            Member #136306
            December 8, 2012
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            Posted: February 17, 2013, 12:57 pm - IP Logged

            Interesting; although, I'm having a hard time following your math...

            So, they ended the game with over 2,467 winning tickets still unclaimed?  I find that a bit odd... I could see a few large prizes still waiting to be claimed, but not that many.

            And with only 69 tickets (or so) remaining in the entire state... you bought 57 of them with no big winners, that means roughly 2,400 tickets with sizable jackpots were still waiting to be claimed by June? (Store #3 inventory unknown etc.)

            Something seems fishy to me...

            So does this happen often in other states too... i.e. shut the game down when there are still quite a few large prizes remaining?  Yikes! Hope not...What?

              Romancandle's avatar - moon
              Upacreek
              United States
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              December 8, 2012
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              Posted: February 17, 2013, 1:33 pm - IP Logged

              Well, I stand corrected... that's crazy! If it's true that there are no more tickets available in the state for this expired game, then where are all of these unclaimed winning tickets in MO...?  Just doesn't make any sense to wait to cash in on any ticket less that $500...

              So, what's going on here?

              Total Prizes Remaining: $17,680,365.00

              Total Prizes Won: $95,399,495.00

               

              Estimated* Prizes Remaining

              Prize Level

              Total Prizes

              Remaining Prizes

              $10

              1,875,850

              298,939

              $15

              937,812

              142,009

              $20

              937,699

              137,927

              $25

              179,696

              26,820

              $50

              144,820

              21,252

              $100

              144,550

              20,739

              $200

              29,234

              4,234

              $500

              11,684

              1,639

              $1000

              5,203

              779

              $10000

              228

              39

              $20000

              57

              8

              $50K/YR

              10

              2

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                New Member

                United States
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                December 15, 2012
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                Posted: February 17, 2013, 1:45 pm - IP Logged

                I'm thinking that they probaly never made it out of the warehouse. When the remaining prize amounts exceed's or get close to the amount they will make if they sell all the tickets they pull the game. The website show's $17,680,365 in remaining prizes. My math could be wrong(and more than likely is) showed 1,943,676 Tickets left. Take that and multiply it by the cost of the ticket $10. That's $19,436,760 Which is pretty close to the remaining prizes $.

                Again this is just what happened to me last month. I thought that all the tickets were out there as well But it looks to me that they still had several packages on the back shelfs that never get distributed.

                  Romancandle's avatar - moon
                  Upacreek
                  United States
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                  December 8, 2012
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                  Posted: February 17, 2013, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

                  I see where you're coming from now (math).  Well, if it's true, then that's bad news for players.  I mean, how can they determine the odds for a particular game when they're also factoring "game performance" into the equation too?

                  All of those remaining prize amounts cannot be attributed solely to unclaimed tickets IMO.  So, essentially, players never had a shot at a significant number of those remaining prizes in the first place, i.e. you're odds were ZERO CHANCE.

                  Which begs the question, what were the odds for this game based on this outcome?  I'd say they were worse than advertised on the back of the ticket.

                  For example, at the casino, they don't shut the roulette table down based on performance- you know the odds (house wins/house loses).

                  With scratchers, if the house doesn't hit their projected profit margin for a game, then they just shut the game down? 

                  So, how do they calculate the odds for a game in this case?  I don't see how you can when you factor performance into this equation too... the whole life cycle of the game is no longer random.  Depending on how much they make, then they'll kick out a large prize every so often any may not kick out the total advertised?

                  What am I missing here?

                  I've always wondered about this... I've gone thru streaks on scratchers where I believed it was more than just bad luck in terms of my losses... the odds just didn't add up.What?

                    dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
                    Oklahoma
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                    Member #82391
                    November 12, 2009
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                    Posted: February 22, 2013, 6:34 am - IP Logged

                    I check the Remaing Prizes on the lottery's website to see how many big winning tickets are still out there

                    and just hope my Lottery Angel decides to send good luck my way. Blue Angel

                    Same here Carvella. We ( hubby and  I) only  buy scratchers  when we go to Texas since Oklahoma lottery SUXS big time lol... But before we go I always chech Texas Lottery website for remaining tickets.

                    I Love Pink & Green 1908

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                      NY
                      United States
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                      December 31, 2010
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                      Posted: February 24, 2013, 9:00 pm - IP Logged

                      What did I tell ya?  That's why I hate scratchers!!! They are goofball with lot of vudoo magic!!

                      The are enticing, as lot of people win scratchers compare to regular lottery but that's because there are ton of scratch games and people loose lot of dough on scratch lotteries. we only hear when there is a winner. People should demand greater transperency.