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** The Stupid Tax **

Topic closed. 40 replies. Last post 4 years ago by CinCin.

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United States
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February 27, 2012
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Posted: February 19, 2013, 5:26 pm - IP Logged

Hi Gang:

Warren Buffett refers to the lottery as the "stupid tax".

In part, it's true.

Nobody that plays the lottery wants to be considered stupid.

I'm stupid because I like to play.

But I'm also aware of reality, randomness and probability.

The one thing almost every lottery player refuses to acknowledge.....let alone believe, is every system, formula, method or strategy starts at zero after every draw.

In other words, every lottery draw starts fresh. There's no such thing as "hot" or "cold" numbers in the typical sense of the word. There may be numbers which have been drawn more frequently - recently. But that does not mean they will be drawn or ignored again in the future.

If you had two super-computers runing side by side. One computer randomly selects a number. And one computer tries to guess what the number will be...even by running thousands of sophisticated, Defense Dept level lottery software programs, would rarely pick a winner.

If you had a thousand horses lined up on a field for a race, and you had to pick three winners, it would be almost impossible, even with historical anaylsis, to pick 3. It's not a good illustration, but it might help paint a picture of randomness.

Anyway......just posting my thoughts. Opposing views are welcome :)

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    March 24, 2001
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    Posted: February 19, 2013, 5:42 pm - IP Logged

    While you're thinking, think about this.  Computers don't think and they don't do anything randomly and they can't do something that no human know how to program them to do. Even when a computer looks like it's picking numbers randomly, it's following a set of instructions that were programmed by a human.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
      Massachusetts
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      Posted: February 19, 2013, 5:43 pm - IP Logged

      What Mr Buffet will not tell you is how else to legally end up with $2M without doing back-breaking work for 40 years earning $50,000 a year.        When I hear that "stupid tax" reference I just think "..Why are ye fearful, O ye of little faith?.." and shrug off and leave


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        May 25, 2011
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        Posted: February 19, 2013, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

        While you're thinking, think about this.  Computers don't think and they don't do anything randomly and they can't do something that no human know how to program them to do. Even when a computer looks like it's picking numbers randomly, it's following a set of instructions that were programmed by a human.

        GIGO

          SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
          Economy class
          Belgium
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          February 27, 2012
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          Posted: February 19, 2013, 6:40 pm - IP Logged

          Hi Gang:

          Warren Buffett refers to the lottery as the "stupid tax".

          In part, it's true.

          Nobody that plays the lottery wants to be considered stupid.

          I'm stupid because I like to play.

          But I'm also aware of reality, randomness and probability.

          The one thing almost every lottery player refuses to acknowledge.....let alone believe, is every system, formula, method or strategy starts at zero after every draw.

          In other words, every lottery draw starts fresh. There's no such thing as "hot" or "cold" numbers in the typical sense of the word. There may be numbers which have been drawn more frequently - recently. But that does not mean they will be drawn or ignored again in the future.

          If you had two super-computers runing side by side. One computer randomly selects a number. And one computer tries to guess what the number will be...even by running thousands of sophisticated, Defense Dept level lottery software programs, would rarely pick a winner.

          If you had a thousand horses lined up on a field for a race, and you had to pick three winners, it would be almost impossible, even with historical anaylsis, to pick 3. It's not a good illustration, but it might help paint a picture of randomness.

          Anyway......just posting my thoughts. Opposing views are welcome :)

          You are gambling. If you want to bet ten dollars on Pick 3, you are better off at the roulette table.

            mightwin's avatar - questns

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            Posted: February 19, 2013, 7:26 pm - IP Logged

            Nah he's just one of those arrogant monopoly players that think they know everything cuz they gotz boardwalk and park place..................

              PlayToWin47's avatar - Lottery-041.jpg
              Joplin MO
              United States
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              January 28, 2013
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              Posted: February 19, 2013, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

              What Mr Buffet will not tell you is how else to legally end up with $2M without doing back-breaking work for 40 years earning $50,000 a year.        When I hear that "stupid tax" reference I just think "..Why are ye fearful, O ye of little faith?.." and shrug off and leave

              I actually prefer to think of my lottery playing as a high risk investment, not a tax ... and sure not a "stupid tax".

              I have always been taught:  "The greater the risk, the greater the reward".  If you think about it, there really is nothing different between "investing" and "gambling" ... except the level of risk, and therefore the level of reward.

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                Columbia, SC
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                November 21, 2012
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                Posted: February 20, 2013, 7:25 am - IP Logged

                While you're thinking, think about this.  Computers don't think and they don't do anything randomly and they can't do something that no human know how to program them to do. Even when a computer looks like it's picking numbers randomly, it's following a set of instructions that were programmed by a human.

                Very well stated!! I agreeeeeeeeeee

                "If you can DREAM it, you can DO it!"- Walt Disney

                  Chris$'s avatar - Sphere animated2.gif
                  P A
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                  Posted: February 20, 2013, 7:41 am - IP Logged

                  Warren buffet got rich in a style much like playing the lottery.
                  smart investing in stocks and other various funds is not much
                  different than a smart play at the right time on a certain set of numbers.
                  as others here have said its all about risk vs. reward.

                  ♠♣♥♦= $$$$

                    maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
                    Massachusetts
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                    Posted: February 20, 2013, 8:02 am - IP Logged

                    I actually prefer to think of my lottery playing as a high risk investment, not a tax ... and sure not a "stupid tax".

                    I have always been taught:  "The greater the risk, the greater the reward".  If you think about it, there really is nothing different between "investing" and "gambling" ... except the level of risk, and therefore the level of reward.

                    Thats exactly what it is, a high risk investment.  Its no different from investing in a start up. Who would have thought Lehman Brothers would collapse and took with it billions of investors funds?

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                      Kentucky
                      United States
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                      February 14, 2006
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                      Posted: February 20, 2013, 9:57 am - IP Logged

                      Hi Gang:

                      Warren Buffett refers to the lottery as the "stupid tax".

                      In part, it's true.

                      Nobody that plays the lottery wants to be considered stupid.

                      I'm stupid because I like to play.

                      But I'm also aware of reality, randomness and probability.

                      The one thing almost every lottery player refuses to acknowledge.....let alone believe, is every system, formula, method or strategy starts at zero after every draw.

                      In other words, every lottery draw starts fresh. There's no such thing as "hot" or "cold" numbers in the typical sense of the word. There may be numbers which have been drawn more frequently - recently. But that does not mean they will be drawn or ignored again in the future.

                      If you had two super-computers runing side by side. One computer randomly selects a number. And one computer tries to guess what the number will be...even by running thousands of sophisticated, Defense Dept level lottery software programs, would rarely pick a winner.

                      If you had a thousand horses lined up on a field for a race, and you had to pick three winners, it would be almost impossible, even with historical anaylsis, to pick 3. It's not a good illustration, but it might help paint a picture of randomness.

                      Anyway......just posting my thoughts. Opposing views are welcome :)

                      "Warren Buffett refers to the lottery as the "stupid tax"."

                      The odds of picking the right three digits in a pick 3 game is 1000 to 1 and the payoff is $500 so a dollar bet becomes a 50 cent bet. When Buffet buys stock, he gets dollar for dollar value on his investment when a pick 3 player only gets 50 cents on the dollar.

                      "If you had a thousand horses lined up on a field for a race, and you had to pick three winners, it would be almost impossible, even with historical anaylsis, to pick 3."

                      In states using live ball drawings, the pick 3 game is three horse races with 10 horses in each race. If horse bettors were guaranteed $500 for every pick 3, the tracks would lose money.

                      "It's not a good illustration, but it might help paint a picture of randomness."

                      There are probably only 5 horses in each race that can win and why the bettor would have the advantage with a guaranteed $500 win. A random outcome doesn't change the fact in either event, 9 of the possible outcomes can't win so any five digit selection in any digit position (or race) has a 50/50 chance of winning.

                      QPs are randomly generated from all the possible outcomes, but in MM only 2.5% of the outcomes win a prize. Is it better to purchase a random QP with a 97.5% probability of winning nothing or try to create combinations that might be in the 2.5%?

                        joshuacloak's avatar - Money Swim-uncle-scrooge-mcduck-35997717-677-518.jpg

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                        Posted: February 20, 2013, 10:09 am - IP Logged

                        the people who call it a tax, should have no place in office, or even voting , there brains should never be allowed 2 control others

                         

                         they must be as smart as children, its not a tax, never have been

                        u don't have the govt, with a gun so to speak, at your head, if u dare tell them to take there tax and stick it up there A$% , let alone courts bullying u 2 pay it if u dare don't ,and if u tell courts where to stick it, will same story, guns and force.

                        ofc its not a tax

                        anyone that says it is, is a moron, but i think vest majorty of people on this site know this already.

                         

                        also there always stupid people,aka "poor people they talk about should not be playing but do"

                        a fool and his money are soon parted

                        blame lottery all they want

                        but we don't force stupid people 2 play, they choice 2 be morons , and its there god given american right to spend money how they will wish

                        stupid people will sure find ways to waste there money when they should spend it on other things with or without a state lottery.

                         

                        lottery is just a form of entertainment for vest majority of us that are NOT poor and can , omfg u know buy a few and be alright with few bucks"wasted" 

                         

                        , besides dreamin of how to spend millions is a lot of fun.   people waste there time  on many things, at lest how i do it makes me happy!

                        also 2 the high risk investment.    rofl its like a 99.9999999999% risk of failer 2 me, but sure lets call it high risk high return, lol

                        No bees, no honey.

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                          Kentucky
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                          February 14, 2006
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                          Posted: February 20, 2013, 10:10 am - IP Logged

                          I actually prefer to think of my lottery playing as a high risk investment, not a tax ... and sure not a "stupid tax".

                          I have always been taught:  "The greater the risk, the greater the reward".  If you think about it, there really is nothing different between "investing" and "gambling" ... except the level of risk, and therefore the level of reward.

                          "I actually prefer to think of my lottery playing as a high risk investment, not a tax ... and sure not a "stupid tax"."

                          Both are risk/reward, but the risk and reward aren't even close comparing the stock market to a pick 3 game. When Buffet buys stock, his risk is probably less than 10% of his investment and his reward goal is probably under 25%. A pick 3 player is risking all of their investment to get a 50,000% reward.


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                            Posted: February 20, 2013, 10:16 am - IP Logged

                            GIGO

                            GEICO


                              United States
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                              September 7, 2011
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                              Posted: February 20, 2013, 10:18 am - IP Logged

                              Hi Gang:

                              Warren Buffett refers to the lottery as the "stupid tax".

                              In part, it's true.

                              Nobody that plays the lottery wants to be considered stupid.

                              I'm stupid because I like to play.

                              But I'm also aware of reality, randomness and probability.

                              The one thing almost every lottery player refuses to acknowledge.....let alone believe, is every system, formula, method or strategy starts at zero after every draw.

                              In other words, every lottery draw starts fresh. There's no such thing as "hot" or "cold" numbers in the typical sense of the word. There may be numbers which have been drawn more frequently - recently. But that does not mean they will be drawn or ignored again in the future.

                              If you had two super-computers runing side by side. One computer randomly selects a number. And one computer tries to guess what the number will be...even by running thousands of sophisticated, Defense Dept level lottery software programs, would rarely pick a winner.

                              If you had a thousand horses lined up on a field for a race, and you had to pick three winners, it would be almost impossible, even with historical anaylsis, to pick 3. It's not a good illustration, but it might help paint a picture of randomness.

                              Anyway......just posting my thoughts. Opposing views are welcome :)

                              MMMMMMMMMMM, sounds strangely like Jimmy4671