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Back testing... Is it a real view...

Topic closed. 12 replies. Last post 4 years ago by LottoBoner.

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Peculiar, Mo
United States
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March 22, 2013
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Posted: March 22, 2013, 6:38 am - IP Logged

I developed a c# program that generates tickets using a Balanced Wheel (Published by Gail) that creates 10 tickets from 12 numbers as well as I am filtering on Gail's suggested Sum of Numbers.  I have conducted numerious back tests and will post my results on the last 500 drawings.

3,615 tickets generated, $405.00 (405 tickets) in 1$ matches (2 of 5), $510 (51 Tickets) in $10 matches (3 of 5), $750.00 (3 tickets) in $250 matches (4 of 5)

 

The games stated averages are $1 in 9.6, $10 in 102.6, and $250 in 3396.  My questions are .... can I trust the backtest to be revelant to the future?  Are my numbers low in gains (46% ROI).  I am a little better in $1 wins, almost double in $10 dollar wins... and tripple on $250 dollar wins.

 

I am new to using software and tools to choose numbers.  Would you say that I am on the right Track?

    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
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    February 27, 2012
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    Posted: March 22, 2013, 7:07 am - IP Logged

    I developed a c# program that generates tickets using a Balanced Wheel (Published by Gail) that creates 10 tickets from 12 numbers as well as I am filtering on Gail's suggested Sum of Numbers.  I have conducted numerious back tests and will post my results on the last 500 drawings.

    3,615 tickets generated, $405.00 (405 tickets) in 1$ matches (2 of 5), $510 (51 Tickets) in $10 matches (3 of 5), $750.00 (3 tickets) in $250 matches (4 of 5)

     

    The games stated averages are $1 in 9.6, $10 in 102.6, and $250 in 3396.  My questions are .... can I trust the backtest to be revelant to the future?  Are my numbers low in gains (46% ROI).  I am a little better in $1 wins, almost double in $10 dollar wins... and tripple on $250 dollar wins.

     

    I am new to using software and tools to choose numbers.  Would you say that I am on the right Track?

    You can post your picks on LP, and you can play them for real same time.

    You did not specify your wheel conditions, your picks and the lottery.

    You smell like scam to me.

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      Peculiar, Mo
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      March 22, 2013
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      Posted: March 22, 2013, 7:16 am - IP Logged

      No scam.  The lottery is the Missouri Show Me Cash, I posted my picks for tonight. I am not boasting because I have nothing to compare to other than I never had many returns on my quick picks that I used to play.

      I entered this topic because I have real questions. I am not marketing or selling anything other than trying to find a piece of mind and a sense of direction.

       

      Thanks for all reply's.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        March 24, 2001
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        Posted: March 22, 2013, 7:27 am - IP Logged

        When you say "back testing", do you mean you are doing more than just generating a group of combinations and comparing them to the previous drawings?

        Since most systems are dynamic, the combinations you would have generated in the past might be different than the combinations you generated most recently, so "back testing" would have to account for that too.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
          Economy class
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          Posted: March 22, 2013, 7:27 am - IP Logged

          No scam.  The lottery is the Missouri Show Me Cash, I posted my picks for tonight. I am not boasting because I have nothing to compare to other than I never had many returns on my quick picks that I used to play.

          I entered this topic because I have real questions. I am not marketing or selling anything other than trying to find a piece of mind and a sense of direction.

           

          Thanks for all reply's.

          You need to upgrade to post more than ten picks and use your wheels.

          The player bets, the croupier is doing the dealing. You are the player.

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            Peculiar, Mo
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            Posted: March 22, 2013, 7:45 am - IP Logged

            I am using old data and treating it like it's new for testing purposes.  So, I am able to generate statistics to view how many of my tickets would have matched.  I dynamically look at the old data as if it were new at that period of time.  So, in other words... I can look at any date and generate numbers for the next days drawing.

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              Peculiar, Mo
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              Posted: March 22, 2013, 7:51 am - IP Logged

              You need to upgrade to post more than ten picks and use your wheels.

              The player bets, the croupier is doing the dealing. You are the player.

              It is not a prove or disprove theory.   It's a question on how real is data from old drawing and can it be predictive of future events.  I just joined today so I only play 10 tickets per day (that's my budget) and I only play the Missouri Show Me.  But I will place my forecasts out daily for the fun.  I have found that there are gaps in times where results can be differnent.  That means that at 400 to 475 days ago I might be doing better in the stats but overall, in the long run.... i just run a 1,000 past entries to relect my averages.

                SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                Posted: March 22, 2013, 7:56 am - IP Logged

                I am using old data and treating it like it's new for testing purposes.  So, I am able to generate statistics to view how many of my tickets would have matched.  I dynamically look at the old data as if it were new at that period of time.  So, in other words... I can look at any date and generate numbers for the next days drawing.

                old data = history, past drawings

                You simulated a payout if you had played your wheel in the past? Our lottery used to offer such a service. Old stuff.
                Anybody can view past drawings, most can analyse them.

                I never heard about dynamic vision, I always was looking just like that.

                If you are new here, you can crawl through the posts. There is a search textbox.

                You say that you have wheeling software and analytical software for your drawings. You say that you copied Gail Howard's smartluck program and that you don't know which numbers you should pick?

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                  Peculiar, Mo
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                  Posted: March 22, 2013, 8:05 am - IP Logged

                  old data = history, past drawings

                  You simulated a payout if you had played your wheel in the past? Our lottery used to offer such a service. Old stuff.
                  Anybody can view past drawings, most can analyse them.

                  I never heard about dynamic vision, I always was looking just like that.

                  If you are new here, you can crawl through the posts. There is a search textbox.

                  You say that you have wheeling software and analytical software for your drawings. You say that you copied Gail Howard's smartluck program and that you don't know which numbers you should pick?

                  Well SergM, I see I've made a friend for life out of you.  I have not copied anyone's software other than a public release of one published wheel, included filter logic that was published in public release, and decided programmically which numbers that I want to play.  If no one wants to address the question... how reliable is using old data when evaluting wheels, choices, and logic then the purpose of my thread is mute.

                   

                  I was hoping for a real discussion of old data verses if I am trying to sell a gold watch on the street corner.... or etc...

                    riscknight's avatar - riscknight
                    Athens
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                    Posted: March 22, 2013, 8:21 am - IP Logged

                    Welcome to LP OtterWay.

                    You can use "old data" in order to "evaluate" your wheels.

                    Patterns/trends will always be there. "Proving />TRUE randomness", will not happen in this life.

                    Best Of Luck.

                     

                    6/49 dis(assembly)

                      JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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                      Posted: March 22, 2013, 9:00 am - IP Logged

                      How valid is the measure you are backtesting with? That will determine how relevent your future predictions will be.

                      As a programmer you have an edge on all the rest. Use it to find the most valid measures. *S*

                      I think you will find that the Gail Howard approch and wheeling will only take you so far.

                      You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                      Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                        dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
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                        Posted: March 22, 2013, 9:12 am - IP Logged

                        Welcome to the LP OtterWay, you might want to post your question on the Mathematics or Lottery Sysyem forum. 

                        Keep in mind when ever the a jackpot gets high a lot scammers start posting on the LP so Serge is just making sure your not one.

                        I Love Pink & Green 1908


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                          Posted: March 22, 2013, 2:58 pm - IP Logged

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