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P-3 "Repeats numbers" happen 4 or 5 per month

Topic closed. 24 replies. Last post 4 years ago by SergeM.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
Member #828
November 2, 2002
10491 Posts
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Posted: April 25, 2013, 8:30 pm - IP Logged

Oh..for jimjwright.... and SergeM questions concerning my old "sayings" I put at the bottom of every post ......about playing and waiting folate straight numbers.  You guys cut it out.  LOL

 You guys are trying to pull me off this post topic.....and mess me up. LOL

 

  OK......just a little bit of a explanation. Just using the very ....very simple version of what I meant. 

        If we started playing P-3 on day one..it would take us 1,000 draws to give at least each straight a shot to hit.  approx 2.7 yrs

        If we did the P-4 the same way it would take us 10,000 draws just to give each number a shot. approx. 27 years.   

  Now, I repeat.... this is a short quick version of how to explain for newbee's the huge difference between the two games ....and why I don't normally play at P-4. 

                               Think about the fact no straight is late before we have had at least ...... at the very least..... one cycle. 

 

        Of course I also realize the math about repeats on both games during that time. I also realize the number of draws during a year doesn't equal the number of straights that show. 

  I think I know what you guys are wanting focus topic on  ......but most folks don't care a hoot about that math part. They like BIG FAT HEN statements.  LOL

     Nope ..Not this stuff  .......

             1   There are around 387 unique combinations(straights) in the last 500 draws, at any given moment in a lottery history. 387/500 = 77.4%.


                         2. There are around 494 unique combinations in the last 692 draws. 494/692 = 71.4%. 


                          3. There are around629 unique combinations in the last 1000 draws. 629/1000 = 62.9%. 

                          4 There are around 772 unique combinations in the last 1500 draws. 772/1500 = 51.5%. 

 

                                      I like my lines better..they work for day to day..and they are shorter and sweeter.  LOL 

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
    Park City, UT
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    January 18, 2009
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    Posted: April 26, 2013, 12:56 am - IP Logged

    Sorry didn't mean to go off topic.  You have some good ideas with respect to repeat digits, and repeat draws that I might try to incorporate into a program.

    Jimmy

      Kola's avatar - image
      Blundering Time Traveler

      United States
      Member #28945
      December 25, 2005
      1527 Posts
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      Posted: April 26, 2013, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

      Hello WIN D,

      I value and appreciate all the statistical information you've been distilling over the past few threads or rather ever since you've been on the LP.  You've often give my "left-brain" an excellent scrubbing.  You've made an art of simplifying and communicating relevant analysis, so a drink or two from your statistical cup always goes down easy.  I've never used odds, probabilities and statistics when making picks, because I'm still building my personal system, and to even use the most ''harmless'' stat even at this later point would still be too much of a filter for my brand of picking numbers.   But if I'm to liken a system to a pyramid, stats would be the smallest and the yet the crowning last piece  - The Capstone.  And upon it, Master Builder WIN D would be among those inscribed. Thanks again...

      May your numbers be true this day,

      Kola

      Legend says that The Craggy One was once asked about the Lottery Circle and the aged Lottery LoreKeeper whispered in his gravelly eloquence,"It is known among our kind that 2 successive draws are in reality the 2 center-points of 2 intersecting circles that share a common radius - a Root Center. This Vesica Piscis is the creative womb for all numbers, the Still Point from which two draws will unite & a new one is born. This "perfect" space is a wormhole through Time(Change). Master its proportions & your numerical predictions will not falter". 

        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
        Economy class
        Belgium
        Member #123700
        February 27, 2012
        4035 Posts
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        Posted: April 26, 2013, 6:25 pm - IP Logged

        Oh..for jimjwright.... and SergeM questions concerning my old "sayings" I put at the bottom of every post ......about playing and waiting folate straight numbers.  You guys cut it out.  LOL

         You guys are trying to pull me off this post topic.....and mess me up. LOL

         

          OK......just a little bit of a explanation. Just using the very ....very simple version of what I meant. 

                If we started playing P-3 on day one..it would take us 1,000 draws to give at least each straight a shot to hit.  approx 2.7 yrs

                If we did the P-4 the same way it would take us 10,000 draws just to give each number a shot. approx. 27 years.   

          Now, I repeat.... this is a short quick version of how to explain for newbee's the huge difference between the two games ....and why I don't normally play at P-4. 

                                       Think about the fact no straight is late before we have had at least ...... at the very least..... one cycle. 

         

                Of course I also realize the math about repeats on both games during that time. I also realize the number of draws during a year doesn't equal the number of straights that show. 

          I think I know what you guys are wanting focus topic on  ......but most folks don't care a hoot about that math part. They like BIG FAT HEN statements.  LOL

             Nope ..Not this stuff  .......

                     1   There are around 387 unique combinations(straights) in the last 500 draws, at any given moment in a lottery history. 387/500 = 77.4%.


                                 2. There are around 494 unique combinations in the last 692 draws. 494/692 = 71.4%. 


                                  3. There are around629 unique combinations in the last 1000 draws. 629/1000 = 62.9%. 

                                  4 There are around 772 unique combinations in the last 1500 draws. 772/1500 = 51.5%. 

         

                                              I like my lines better..they work for day to day..and they are shorter and sweeter.  LOL 

        There is no way that 1000 drawings generate 1000 different combinations. I am not calculating this, but notice that a roulette game has numbers not coming up for 470 drawings. Roulette has only 37 numbers! So, you just might think that some combinations won't show up for many years or just a life time.

          SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
          Economy class
          Belgium
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          February 27, 2012
          4035 Posts
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          Posted: April 26, 2013, 6:46 pm - IP Logged

                                                           P-3 "Repeat Numbers" happen 4 or 5 times per 30 draws. 

           

           

          This is about "Repeats"  This kind of repeat is called a Repeats Tail Smiley.... they can be any length 7 days....14...21...30 days

             How many repeats do we get each month ...on average?  Well, for a month or the last 30 past draws we should look for4 or 5 per.   

             Of those 4 or 5 Repeats..... about 3 will be singles....and about 1.3 doubles.  Call it 3 singles repeats and  1 double. 

              If you notice that your game has not had a repeat number using the last 30 draws during the last week or so. Get ready! At least One per week.

           

                 Check Ga Midday: 16 days since a repeat. Go back past 143 at the end and add 2 more from last 30......that makes 30 to check total.

            We have to add +2 more to our Repeat Tail of 30 days.....cause we don't count the RED repeats in the 30 draw Tail.....when they already hit.

                                                  ? next...833 868 939 535 046 212 615 446 500 942 476 617 053 332 624 001 829 347 885 881 982 715 784 511 758 841 211 466 089 143

           

           

               * OFF topic Opinion .......Since the last 4 draws were Doubles up there..... I would use the last 30 no-match singles...and drop the 12 past doubles in the tail. 

          Pick 3 - Bubblegium

          30 days games out = limit to play

          That requires 31 combinations to play, 0 to 30 games out.
          The skips for cashing in then are:

          0:33 1:21 2:21 3:21 4:15 5:18 6:7 7:15 8:8 9:8 10:5 11:6 12:5 13:6 14:8 15:5 16:5 17:2 18:4 19:4 20:2 21:2 22:1 23:1 28:1 30:1

          1679 games: 225 times last 31 drawings wins a price boxed, singles, double or eventually triple.

          You would have waited maximum 30 drawings to get a cash payout, which might cost (30+1)*30=930 EUR, you would win 80 EUR for singles boxed.

          225*80 (low side payout)
          1679*31 (costs)

          I find 18 000 payout for 52 049 costs, net loss around 34 000.

          The expectancy of the game is somthing like 50%, so maybe with doubles you might only loose half of your cash. So basically you have a system, that conform to the rule will make your players loose half of their cash!

          Scared  Green laugh

            paurths's avatar - underground
            Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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            July 29, 2005
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            Posted: April 27, 2013, 2:53 am - IP Logged

            Hi Serge,

            Chaz knows that the probability of all 1000 straights coming in on 1000 draws is extremely low, next to impossible (if not). That is exactly what he explains.

            Anyhow, here is some info on a few states i picked at random.
            This data comes from an old database (with the draws starting later than reality), and i know that the 021 has come in 3 times in MI eve, but that is not important for the statistic in this case, it is just to show that even in 9510 draws where is no guarantee that all 1000 straights will have come in.

            For NJ (E) it has taken 5876 draws before all 1000 straights came in.

            For MI (E) not all 1000 numbers have yet come in, after 9510 draws.
            Numbers missing : 021

            For VA (E) it has taken 6357 draws before all 1000 straights came in.

            For GA (E) it has taken 6556 draws before all 1000 straights came in.

            For TX (E) it has taken 5473 draws before all 1000 straights came in.

            For IL (E) not all 1000 numbers have yet come in, after 5930 draws.
            Numbers missing : 098, 498

            For MI (M) not all 1000 numbers have yet come in, after 5657 draws.
            Numbers missing : 031

            ...

            Sorry to interrupt this thread, Chaz ;-)

             

            cheers

            Ricky

            lasas3

            An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

              paurths's avatar - underground
              Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
              Belgium
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              Posted: April 27, 2013, 3:01 am - IP Logged

              Pick 3 - Bubblegium

              30 days games out = limit to play

              That requires 31 combinations to play, 0 to 30 games out.
              The skips for cashing in then are:

              0:33 1:21 2:21 3:21 4:15 5:18 6:7 7:15 8:8 9:8 10:5 11:6 12:5 13:6 14:8 15:5 16:5 17:2 18:4 19:4 20:2 21:2 22:1 23:1 28:1 30:1

              1679 games: 225 times last 31 drawings wins a price boxed, singles, double or eventually triple.

              You would have waited maximum 30 drawings to get a cash payout, which might cost (30+1)*30=930 EUR, you would win 80 EUR for singles boxed.

              225*80 (low side payout)
              1679*31 (costs)

              I find 18 000 payout for 52 049 costs, net loss around 34 000.

              The expectancy of the game is somthing like 50%, so maybe with doubles you might only loose half of your cash. So basically you have a system, that conform to the rule will make your players loose half of their cash!

              Scared  Green laugh

              That is not exactly how i understand Chaz is explaining it...
              First, you don't play 30 combo's every day of the month, you wait for Due.
              Second, there is more than one hit expected a month if one would play this each day of the month.
              Third, there is software with a zillion statistics out there, i'm sure Chaz would be using to narrow down the numbers to play. (chances of a sum lower than 6 or higher than 22, repeating within that 30-draw time frame are very very low, etcetera...)
              Fourth: playing at the offshore-store, the payouts are 900:1 and not 500:1 for straight, and 150:1/300:1 for box.

              lasas3

              An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

                SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                Economy class
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                February 27, 2012
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                Posted: April 27, 2013, 6:40 am - IP Logged

                That is not exactly how i understand Chaz is explaining it...
                First, you don't play 30 combo's every day of the month, you wait for Due.
                Second, there is more than one hit expected a month if one would play this each day of the month.
                Third, there is software with a zillion statistics out there, i'm sure Chaz would be using to narrow down the numbers to play. (chances of a sum lower than 6 or higher than 22, repeating within that 30-draw time frame are very very low, etcetera...)
                Fourth: playing at the offshore-store, the payouts are 900:1 and not 500:1 for straight, and 150:1/300:1 for box.

                • First, you don't play 30 combo's every day of the month, you wait for Due.

                There is no such working technique. That is mathematicaly proven.

                • Second, there is more than one hit expected a month if one would play this each day of the month.

                That is the same story, it pays or doesn't and you don't know when. Same mathematics.

                • Third, there is software with a zillion statistics out there, i'm sure Chaz would be using to narrow down the numbers to play. (chances of a sum lower than 6 or higher than 22, repeating within that 30-draw time frame are very very low, etcetera...)

                It is not said what he is using and you can turn such close to statics systems up and down, it stays the same. a*b = b*a. You only create an illusion of what you want to see. Chances again are probability, the payout stays 50% no matter how you flip it.Systems sometimes work periodically, then if you continue, you just might loose more than your plums. The only working system is raising the bet and even that can fail.

                • Fourth: playing at the offshore-store, the payouts are 900:1 and not 500:1 for straight, and 150:1/300:1 for box.

                Then you get 90% expectancy, still under 100%. But, offshore? Is that without tax, is that everywhere? The only point that I would give you is picking a game with a better payout and roulette pays 97%.

                I have not seen one single practically founded system here, with costs and payouts, posted before it happened for a definate time.

                To win back your wages generally at pick 3, you need to beat probability twice. To win 50% net, you need to beat probability times three.

                No system is exposed here. Telling a system is not showing probability.

                  paurths's avatar - underground
                  Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
                  Belgium
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                  Posted: April 27, 2013, 2:31 pm - IP Logged

                  Hi Serge,

                  • First, you don't play 30 combo's every day of the month, you wait for Due.

                  There is no such working technique. That is mathematicaly proven.

                   

                  I have no idea where this proof can be found that you are talking about.

                  I would like to read it however, always interested in such things.

                  cheers
                  Ricky

                  lasas3

                  An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

                    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                    Economy class
                    Belgium
                    Member #123700
                    February 27, 2012
                    4035 Posts
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                    Posted: April 27, 2013, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

                    Hi Serge,

                    • First, you don't play 30 combo's every day of the month, you wait for Due.

                    There is no such working technique. That is mathematicaly proven.

                     

                    I have no idea where this proof can be found that you are talking about.

                    I would like to read it however, always interested in such things.

                    cheers
                    Ricky

                    Binomial