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What the final rollover probability on the 590.4M Jackpot was.

Topic closed. 3 replies. Last post 4 years ago by veganlife125.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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Posted: May 19, 2013, 9:37 pm - IP Logged

The outcome, one winner, was in fact, this time, the most probable outcome.

For the 464.5M dollars worth of tickets sold, with the number of tickets being half that amount the final probabilities using a randomized Poison distribution was as follows:

k, number of winnersp(m,k)
026.57%
135.21%
223.34%
310.31%
43.42%
50.91%
60.20%
70.04%
80.01%

The second most probable outcome was another rollover, which might have brought the jackpot close to a billion dollars.     The ridiculously low expectation values for most powerball drawings - this one did not exceed 1.00 but managed to be 0.93 - assures that the powerball will produce similar jackpots in the future, owing to the irrationality of players.   And yes, I did play this one myself, so I'm as irrational as the next guy.    It does seem probable that every 4th or 5th time the jackpot reaches this kind of figure, it will rollover again, producing a new record jackpot.

    ressuccess's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg

    United States
    Member #93164
    June 23, 2010
    1313 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: May 23, 2013, 4:35 pm - IP Logged

    Prob988, Florida won this Powerball Jackpot at 590.5 million dollars with the winning numbers are 10-13-14-22-52 Powerball 11.

      duckman's avatar - ducklogodrake64x64
      Jacksonville Florida
      United States
      Member #23018
      October 6, 2005
      915 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 23, 2013, 8:42 pm - IP Logged

      The outcome, one winner, was in fact, this time, the most probable outcome.

      For the 464.5M dollars worth of tickets sold, with the number of tickets being half that amount the final probabilities using a randomized Poison distribution was as follows:

      k, number of winnersp(m,k)
      026.57%
      135.21%
      223.34%
      310.31%
      43.42%
      50.91%
      60.20%
      70.04%
      80.01%

      The second most probable outcome was another rollover, which might have brought the jackpot close to a billion dollars.     The ridiculously low expectation values for most powerball drawings - this one did not exceed 1.00 but managed to be 0.93 - assures that the powerball will produce similar jackpots in the future, owing to the irrationality of players.   And yes, I did play this one myself, so I'm as irrational as the next guy.    It does seem probable that every 4th or 5th time the jackpot reaches this kind of figure, it will rollover again, producing a new record jackpot.

      What would really be interesting to see is the actual number of combinations not picked ...

        veganlife125's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

        United States
        Member #142777
        May 18, 2013
        263 Posts
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        Posted: May 24, 2013, 12:09 pm - IP Logged

        Good work Prob.  I'd like to see the probability numbers for the Friday March 30, 2012 mega millions which was at $656 Million but with an added KICKER.  Substitute the new 1 in 258 million odds vs the current 1 in 175 million odds and lets see a comparison.

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