|Posted: May 19, 2013, 9:37 pm - IP Logged|
The outcome, one winner, was in fact, this time, the most probable outcome.
For the 464.5M dollars worth of tickets sold, with the number of tickets being half that amount the final probabilities using a randomized Poison distribution was as follows:
|k, number of winners||p(m,k)|
The second most probable outcome was another rollover, which might have brought the jackpot close to a billion dollars. The ridiculously low expectation values for most powerball drawings - this one did not exceed 1.00 but managed to be 0.93 - assures that the powerball will produce similar jackpots in the future, owing to the irrationality of players. And yes, I did play this one myself, so I'm as irrational as the next guy. It does seem probable that every 4th or 5th time the jackpot reaches this kind of figure, it will rollover again, producing a new record jackpot.