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Different totals in Jackpot Analysis

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 3 years ago by ttech10.

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Bagent's avatar - avatar 10424.gif
Vancouver, WA
United States
Member #53665
July 15, 2007
151 Posts
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Posted: July 6, 2013, 10:44 am - IP Logged

Todd,

After the big Powerball win, I started charting all the analysis info for both Mega Millions and Powerball.  I noticed something that didn't make sense after the next JP win.  As you see below, the $40 mil analysis for PB is different.  Shouldn't they be the same value?  There is a 1.4 million difference in what I think should be the same value.

 

40,000,00024,900,00018,675,000
50,000,00030,600,00022,950,000
60,000,00036,600,00027,450,000
70,000,00042,900,00032,175,000
85,000,00052,100,00039,075,000
105,000,00063,900,00047,925,000
127,000,00077,300,00057,975,000
40,000,00023,500,00017,625,000
50,000,00029,400,00022,050,000
60,000,00032,500,00026,400,000
70,000,00041,000,00030,750,000

 The same holds true for Mega Millions.  Can you explain why there is a decrease in a million or more for the jackpots?

 

12,000,0009,000,0006,750,000
14,000,00010,000,0007,500,000
21,000,00015,000,00011,250,000
29,000,00021,000,00015,750,000
30,000,00022,000,00016,500,000
36,000,00026,000,00019,500,000
44,000,00032,000,00024,000,000
52,000,00037,000,00027,750,000
61,000,00043,000,00032,250,000
70,000,00049,000,00036,750,000
79,000,00055,000,00041,250,000
12,000,0008,000,0006,000,000

All data is directly off of USAMega for each lottery anaylsis page.

 

Thanks

 

Mark


    United States
    Member #116268
    September 7, 2011
    20244 Posts
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    Posted: July 6, 2013, 10:51 am - IP Logged

    Did you read the "important notes" at the bottom of the page? Just wondering because I didn't even understand your question or suggestion, whichever it was. 

    POWERBALL JACKPOT ANALYSIS

    Media: You may freely use any information on this page, but you must credit www.usamega.com.


    Read the Notes about this page.  Be sure to review the Important Notes section at the bottom of the page, which provide additional information regarding the numbers presented here.

      Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
      Chief Bottle Washer
      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #1
      May 31, 2000
      23274 Posts
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      Posted: July 6, 2013, 11:22 am - IP Logged

      <Moved to Lottery Discussion forum>

      Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

        Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
        Chief Bottle Washer
        New Jersey
        United States
        Member #1
        May 31, 2000
        23274 Posts
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        Posted: July 6, 2013, 11:23 am - IP Logged

        I have moved this to the Discussion forum, because it is not a suggestion.

        I don't know what numbers you copied, so I can't really comment on it.

        Perhaps you are comparing cash values, which always fluctuate.  So if you were comparing cash values, you now have the answer.

         

        Check the State Lottery Report Card
        What grade did your lottery earn?

         

        Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
        Help eliminate computerized drawings!

          ttech10's avatar - blobdude
          Texas
          United States
          Member #92330
          June 5, 2010
          887 Posts
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          Posted: July 7, 2013, 5:42 am - IP Logged

          It took a minute, but I figured it out. His left number is the advertised jackpot/annuity amount. His middle number is the cash value amount. His right number is the amount after the 25% Federal Tax amount has been deducted. What he's saying is that the roll over amount is different sometimes.

           

          MegaMillions is typically $12,000,000 annuity with $9,000,000 as the cash value. But this Tuesday, it's at $12,000,000 annuity and $8,000,000 for cash value (TX Lottery site says it's at $8,200,000).

           

          Powerball has changed, with the amounts of the annuity staying at $40,000,000 but the cash value has been $23.5m, $24.9m, $25.1m, $25m, $26m, $26.1m, $26.4m, $26.5m, $26.2m, $25.7m, $26.7m and so on.

           

          The MegaMillion cash value seemed to always stay at $9m. It even stayed at that number when they had the same roll-over amount two draws in a row. I was already thinking of skipping a draw or two since my multi-draw ticket ended Friday and this made the decision for me. I'll wait to see what they plan to do on the next draw before I renew my ticket.

            Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

            United States
            Member #142499
            May 13, 2013
            1186 Posts
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            Posted: July 7, 2013, 8:32 am - IP Logged

            It took a minute, but I figured it out. His left number is the advertised jackpot/annuity amount. His middle number is the cash value amount. His right number is the amount after the 25% Federal Tax amount has been deducted. What he's saying is that the roll over amount is different sometimes.

             

            MegaMillions is typically $12,000,000 annuity with $9,000,000 as the cash value. But this Tuesday, it's at $12,000,000 annuity and $8,000,000 for cash value (TX Lottery site says it's at $8,200,000).

             

            Powerball has changed, with the amounts of the annuity staying at $40,000,000 but the cash value has been $23.5m, $24.9m, $25.1m, $25m, $26m, $26.1m, $26.4m, $26.5m, $26.2m, $25.7m, $26.7m and so on.

             

            The MegaMillion cash value seemed to always stay at $9m. It even stayed at that number when they had the same roll-over amount two draws in a row. I was already thinking of skipping a draw or two since my multi-draw ticket ended Friday and this made the decision for me. I'll wait to see what they plan to do on the next draw before I renew my ticket.

            Ahhh. Thanks ttech10. I was trying to figure out what the 3rd column was and now that i know, it still makes no real sense to include it in the grand scheme of things since everyone will be paying the IRS 39.6% and not 25% anyway. 

            As for the cash value, I don't really know what's been going on with them lately. The PB cash value used to be at ~62%-65% of the JP amount. This time around it's been  consistently below 60%. MM was usually between 70%-75%. Now it's at 68%. Seems as if both games are assigning less ticket sales to the cash value JP. Can't think of a good reason to drop the percentage so significantly unless they're trying to push people to the annuity option instead.

              Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
              Los Angeles, California
              United States
              Member #103813
              January 5, 2011
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              Posted: July 7, 2013, 2:19 pm - IP Logged

              Ahhh. Thanks ttech10. I was trying to figure out what the 3rd column was and now that i know, it still makes no real sense to include it in the grand scheme of things since everyone will be paying the IRS 39.6% and not 25% anyway. 

              As for the cash value, I don't really know what's been going on with them lately. The PB cash value used to be at ~62%-65% of the JP amount. This time around it's been  consistently below 60%. MM was usually between 70%-75%. Now it's at 68%. Seems as if both games are assigning less ticket sales to the cash value JP. Can't think of a good reason to drop the percentage so significantly unless they're trying to push people to the annuity option instead.

              The annuity value is dependent on the yield on the bonds/treasuries the would fund the annuity. This changes week to week. The lottery or MUSL gets quotes to determine the annuity factor for each draw, to determine the cash value needed to provide the stated annuity value. With a higher interest rate (and better economy) the cash value required is lower for the same annuity value.

              The relationship between the annuity and the cash value is also dependent on sales. Below around $90M annuity value, the PB jackpot is underfunded by sales. So the cash value is strictly the amount required, along with the annuity factor, to provide the $40M annuity guarantee and/or $10M minimum annuity increases. At or above $90M, the PB jackpot is fully funded by sales and starts increasing more than $10M minimum annuity value increases. At that point the cash value is based on projected sales, and the annuity value is derived from the cash value and the annuity factor.

                ttech10's avatar - blobdude
                Texas
                United States
                Member #92330
                June 5, 2010
                887 Posts
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                Posted: July 11, 2013, 12:12 am - IP Logged

                The number still seems to be off. Typically at $13m the MegaMillions pays out $10m. Now it's at $9m, which is typically what the rollover amount is.

                 

                It looks like they found a way to offer a lower jackpot amount and still be able to advertise the same amount. I hope someone wins soon so I can see what the next rollover cash value will be. If this is going to be a trend or what. Did they find a new place to do business with that offers higher interest rates?