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Mega Millions Lottery

Topic closed. 30 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Jon D.

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Posted: July 17, 2013, 9:20 am - IP Logged

I promised to quit HotLotto when the matrix changed last May and so far I have not bought one ticket despite many opportunities to. I shall be doing the same for MM when the matrix changes become reality.

I would love to encourage people to boycott the new MM but I lack the resources and the know-how to be successful.

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    noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
    Bay Area - California
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    Posted: July 17, 2013, 9:42 am - IP Logged

    In terms easily understood: MM is going to make it more difficult for one to win while asking us to feel good about the fact that they not raising the price. Kinda like taking a dollar out of a kid's hand and handing them a quarter and saying " See how shiny it is?"


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      Posted: July 17, 2013, 9:48 am - IP Logged

      In terms easily understood: MM is going to make it more difficult for one to win while asking us to feel good about the fact that they not raising the price. Kinda like taking a dollar out of a kid's hand and handing them a quarter and saying " See how shiny it is?"

      Right, as if giving us $500 for a 4+0 hit is going to make up for a jackpot that takes FOREVER for someone to win.

        Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
        Los Angeles, California
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        Posted: July 17, 2013, 9:48 am - IP Logged

        Its just another government made disaster in the making. PBs "sweet spot" is supported by ticket price NOT increased odds. Lottery players understand odds and gravitate towardBETTER odds.

        Yep, I rate this change pretty high on the "what were they thinking?" scale.

        I'd expect the sales to go down, and once they realize that only a few winners a year is not good for selling frenzy, they might have yet another matrix change, like PB did.

        The increased winners and payouts on the lower tiers is more of a nuisance than anything. I don't want a whole bunch of measly $1 winning tickets. And the 2nd prize is just about the biggest rip-off ever, 1-in-18.5M odds for $1M prize? Right...


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          Posted: July 17, 2013, 9:55 am - IP Logged

          Yep, I rate this change pretty high on the "what were they thinking?" scale.

          I'd expect the sales to go down, and once they realize that only a few winners a year is not good for selling frenzy, they might have yet another matrix change, like PB did.

          The increased winners and payouts on the lower tiers is more of a nuisance than anything. I don't want a whole bunch of measly $1 winning tickets. And the 2nd prize is just about the biggest rip-off ever, 1-in-18.5M odds for $1M prize? Right...

          Perhaps people fail to cash the small prize tickets often enough that they found incentive to hand out a whole lot more of them?  I'm wondering if the odds for winning $1 million will be BETTER on a scratch off?

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: July 17, 2013, 10:03 am - IP Logged

            Yep, I rate this change pretty high on the "what were they thinking?" scale.

            I'd expect the sales to go down, and once they realize that only a few winners a year is not good for selling frenzy, they might have yet another matrix change, like PB did.

            The increased winners and payouts on the lower tiers is more of a nuisance than anything. I don't want a whole bunch of measly $1 winning tickets. And the 2nd prize is just about the biggest rip-off ever, 1-in-18.5M odds for $1M prize? Right...

            I find it hard to believe the overall odds of winning a prize will 1:15 or better.  If it is then the winning ratios will improve for most players and it's that winning of a small prize that keeps hope alive for most players.

            It should be intersting to see how players react to the new matrix.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
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              Posted: July 17, 2013, 10:09 am - IP Logged

              Perhaps people fail to cash the small prize tickets often enough that they found incentive to hand out a whole lot more of them?  I'm wondering if the odds for winning $1 million will be BETTER on a scratch off?

              I think you hit the nail on the head there. That's the "hidden" source of revenue, the unclaimed prizes or "throwaways" that people don't bother with. That money typically goes straight to the state's coffers.

              It's easy to overlook how much money is in those bottom two tiers. (and the amount of money in rounding down to nearest dollar) About half of all the prize money paid out in 2nd-9th prizes is in those bottom 2 tiers of $2 and $1. So a lot of throwaways can amount to millions of dollars.


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                Posted: July 17, 2013, 10:21 am - IP Logged

                I find it hard to believe the overall odds of winning a prize will 1:15 or better.  If it is then the winning ratios will improve for most players and it's that winning of a small prize that keeps hope alive for most players.

                It should be intersting to see how players react to the new matrix.

                Im not so sure........ How does spending $5 or $10 and getting $2 equal "winning of a small prize"? 

                Perhaps walking around with $5. bills and giving them out for $1. is a good idea?


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                  Posted: July 17, 2013, 10:24 am - IP Logged

                  I think you hit the nail on the head there. That's the "hidden" source of revenue, the unclaimed prizes or "throwaways" that people don't bother with. That money typically goes straight to the state's coffers.

                  It's easy to overlook how much money is in those bottom two tiers. (and the amount of money in rounding down to nearest dollar) About half of all the prize money paid out in 2nd-9th prizes is in those bottom 2 tiers of $2 and $1. So a lot of throwaways can amount to millions of dollars.

                  Right, when I first started playing the lottery I thought I needed all numbers correct to win. Im sure Im not the only stupid one who plays the lottery. My guess is most people throw their tickts away like I did at the time.

                    RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
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                    Posted: July 17, 2013, 10:56 am - IP Logged

                    The new prize structure is on Wikipedia.  I don't like that you will only get $1 for matching the mega ball and $2 for matching the mega ball and one number.  But if you match all 5 numbers it is $1,000,000.

                    Took a look on wiki and noticed on the bottom it said "It is not known yet whether the Megaplier option will continue.

                    This is the only good thing i see. I always play the megaplier now for the second prize, so if they take it away i save a buck and they will lose money. That lets me buy another line if i want.

                      Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
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                      Posted: July 17, 2013, 11:04 am - IP Logged

                      Took a look on wiki and noticed on the bottom it said "It is not known yet whether the Megaplier option will continue.

                      This is the only good thing i see. I always play the megaplier now for the second prize, so if they take it away i save a buck and they will lose money. That lets me buy another line if i want.

                      Reports are saying that Megaplier increases to 5x, and $5M is largest 2nd prize. So it looks like they are hoping to pump up Megaplier sales as well.


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                        Posted: July 17, 2013, 1:02 pm - IP Logged

                        It's not going to take forever to win a jackpot once the odds change.  I still think $100 million + MM jackpots will be rare.

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                          Kentucky
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                          Posted: July 17, 2013, 1:23 pm - IP Logged

                          It's not going to take forever to win a jackpot once the odds change.  I still think $100 million + MM jackpots will be rare.

                          Excellent point because for every 138,075,120 tickets they sell, there is a better than 50% chance the jackpot will be hit.

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                            Posted: July 17, 2013, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

                            by the way, last nights MM win in Texas was a self pick......

                              JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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                              Posted: July 17, 2013, 6:46 pm - IP Logged

                              Another thing to consider is the starting Jackpot value and if it'll have minimum increases. Reports are coming out that MM will have new $15M starting value and adding minimum $5M increases.

                              Here is a comparison table of the old and new prize structure:

                              _MEGA Millions$1_MM New Matrix
                              Total ReturnPrizesOdds 1 inMatchTotal ReturnPrizesOdds 1 in
                              50.00%$55,870,000175,711,5365 + Mega50.00%$84,350,000258,890,850
                              18.20%$250,0003,904,7015 of 517.42%$1,000,00018,492,204
                              11.80%$10,000689,0654 + Mega12.02%$5,000739,688
                              10.35%$15015,3134 of 511.34%$50052,835
                              9.37%$15013,7813 + Mega10.39%$5010,720
                              8.28%$73063 of 59.93%$5766
                              6.01%$108442 + Mega9.29%$5473
                              4.83%$31411 + Mega8.25%$256
                              2.71%$275Mega4.78%$121
                              __39.888___14.708

                              The total 2nd-9th prize payout is lower, 17.42% instead of 18.2% currently, with slightly better payout on the lower tiers.

                              But the question of whether the new game is sized correctly, for odds versus sales and jackpot, that remains to be seen. PB seems to have found a sweet spot. Is this new MM correctly sized?

                              Will California stay pari-mutuel AGAIN?

                              Maybe that 5 of 5 will only be worth $250k in Califronia. *L*

                              You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                              Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.