Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 22, 2017, 9:05 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Mass Megabucks overestimated week after week?

Topic closed. 4 replies. Last post 3 years ago by elltwo.

Page 1 of 1
51
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
New Member
Mass.
United States
Member #144942
July 22, 2013
2 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 23, 2013, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

My first post is a question from an observation.

 

The Masslottery webpage predicts the jackpot before every drawing even when there is a carryover.  Megabucks was hit on Saturday by one winner but the payout was less than what had been predicted for the three previous drawings.  How come?

 

Thanks

    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
    United States
    Member #73904
    April 28, 2009
    14903 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 23, 2013, 5:39 pm - IP Logged

    My first post is a question from an observation.

     

    The Masslottery webpage predicts the jackpot before every drawing even when there is a carryover.  Megabucks was hit on Saturday by one winner but the payout was less than what had been predicted for the three previous drawings.  How come?

     

    Thanks

    That sounds like a job for Maringoman. He'd know.

    Or try Horseface John if you can't get a hold o' Maringoman. He should know.

    Welcome to Lottery Post, elltwo, best of luck to ya!

      maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
      Massachusetts
      United States
      Member #37433
      April 14, 2006
      2747 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 23, 2013, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

      My first post is a question from an observation.

       

      The Masslottery webpage predicts the jackpot before every drawing even when there is a carryover.  Megabucks was hit on Saturday by one winner but the payout was less than what had been predicted for the three previous drawings.  How come?

       

      Thanks

      First of all, welcome to LP   elltwo. You will learn a lot about lottery from this website.

      About you question on Megabucks. Below is the ways to win and the prizes in each category. 

       

      MatchProbabilityTop Prizes
      Megabuck$
      No Doubler Prizes
      Megabuck$
      Doubler Prizes
         All 6      1 in 13,983,816            JACKPOT†            JACKPOT†
        5 of 6      1 in 54,200.84             $2,500              $5,000
        4 of 6      1 in 1,032.40              $100               $200
        3 of 6      1 in 56.66               $2                $4

       

      The jackpot prize only goes up if enough money was played to cover the second, third and fourth prizes. Remember also that Rule #5 states that Approximately 55% of the amount of money wagered on each drawing goes into the prize pool. So supposing that $200,000 was wagered by players between Sunday morning (after the Saturday night drawing) and Wednesday evening just before the draw. From that money, only $110,000 goes into the jackpot. Supposing further that 100 people matched 5 of 6 and no other prizes were matched. This means the lottery will have to pay out $2,500 X 100 = $250,000. The lottery will pay this winnings by taking the $110,000 that was to go into the jackpot and then will further raid the standing jackpot for $140,000 to cover the payouts. Mass Lottery never takes a hit. It happens a lot when birthday numbers (numbers between 1 & 31) fall like they did on Saturday July 20, 2013. The numbers were 01-03-07-09-23-28. And no, they weren’t my numbers, unfortunately.

      That money's gone fo ever

        maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
        Massachusetts
        United States
        Member #37433
        April 14, 2006
        2747 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 23, 2013, 7:51 pm - IP Logged

        I also meant to add that when many players hit the non jackpot prizes then the estimated jackpot has to be deflated to match the reality.

        That money's gone fo ever

          Avatar
          New Member
          Mass.
          United States
          Member #144942
          July 22, 2013
          2 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 24, 2013, 7:29 am - IP Logged

          Thank you both for the replies.