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California Lottery Powerball Question

Topic closed. 6 replies. Last post 4 years ago by PrinceRene.

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Thread Starter
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Posted: July 30, 2013, 10:45 pm - IP Logged

For last Saturday night's draw, I see no one matched 5 without the Powerball for $2.2 million.

Is there anyway of knowing in advance what amount a person who matches 5 without the PB will win if they are the only 5 without the PB ticket?

    Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
    Los Angeles, California
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    January 5, 2011
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    Posted: July 30, 2013, 11:42 pm - IP Logged

    For last Saturday night's draw, I see no one matched 5 without the Powerball for $2.2 million.

    Is there anyway of knowing in advance what amount a person who matches 5 without the PB will win if they are the only 5 without the PB ticket?

    Not exactly, you can only estimate it based on projected sales.

    Since CA is pari-mutuel for all games, the prize amount depends on sales and number of winners. The 5/5 tier prize share is 9.7% of sales, and if there is no winner, that amount rolls over to the next draw. Statistically, you can expect about $1M average prize value per draw, similar to the fixed prize value of other states. But because of real world results, the actual value will vary widely from a few hundred thousand to a few million.

    For tomorrow's draw, Sales are expected to be around $8.5M for CA, so 9.7% of that is $825k for 5/5 share, and add that to the previous amount $2.2M rolled over gives you about $3M expected prize pool for 5/5 prize. But this could likely be won by a couple of winners so they would split that amount between them.

      Lotto Geek's avatar - thelottogeekball
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      Posted: July 31, 2013, 12:00 am - IP Logged

      Nobody really knows exactly how much money will be in a jackpot pool post-draw. PB & MM jackpots, Fantasy 5, what have you; all of the jackpots you see there are just estimates. The difference here is nobody at the lottery estimates what the 2nd prize pool will end up being.

      You know where to find me.

        noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
        Chasing the Dream.
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        Posted: July 31, 2013, 12:35 am - IP Logged

        For last Saturday night's draw, I see no one matched 5 without the Powerball for $2.2 million.

        Is there anyway of knowing in advance what amount a person who matches 5 without the PB will win if they are the only 5 without the PB ticket?

        I could look into the Palantir and tell you the amount, but that would be cheating.
        Jokes aside: Jon D is correct.

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          Posted: July 31, 2013, 9:37 am - IP Logged

          Not exactly, you can only estimate it based on projected sales.

          Since CA is pari-mutuel for all games, the prize amount depends on sales and number of winners. The 5/5 tier prize share is 9.7% of sales, and if there is no winner, that amount rolls over to the next draw. Statistically, you can expect about $1M average prize value per draw, similar to the fixed prize value of other states. But because of real world results, the actual value will vary widely from a few hundred thousand to a few million.

          For tomorrow's draw, Sales are expected to be around $8.5M for CA, so 9.7% of that is $825k for 5/5 share, and add that to the previous amount $2.2M rolled over gives you about $3M expected prize pool for 5/5 prize. But this could likely be won by a couple of winners so they would split that amount between them.

          If the winning numbers are below 32, then I think there will be many winners who will have to split the 5/5 prize. I decided to play some high numbers, so if they end up getting picked tonight, I'll most likely be the only winner. As much as I would love to win the jackpot, if I won $3 million I'd be set for life.

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            Posted: August 1, 2013, 11:30 am - IP Logged

            Just a bit to add to Jon D's answer. MUSL generally has a pretty good handle on how many tickets will be sold and how much money will be added to the jackpot prize pool. If you check the increase in the cash value and multiply it by 3 you'll be very close to the total amount that is added to all prize categories. Looking at the state by state breakdown for past sales on lottoreport dot com will give you a good idea what percentage of tickets are usually sold in California, so you can make a good guess at how much will be available to pay winners (you may have noticed that Jon D's guesstimate was pretty close).

            The total amount added to the prize pool also tells you how many tickets are expected to be sold. You never know ahead of time what the actual results will be, but the number of winners will usually be close to what  the odds suggest. For the past drawing California sold just over 6.5 million tickets (compared to Jon D's guess of about 4.25 million),  so the 1 in 5 milion chance of winning 5+0 means that 1 winner was the most likely result. Of course with  about $3 million available, two winners would still have done better than average, so between that and the very big jackpot it was a much better time than usual to take the chance.

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              Posted: August 1, 2013, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

              There was one 5 without the PB ticket sold in LA. Congratulations to whomever bought that ticket. I'm off to buy some tickets for Saturday night's drawing.