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If nobody wins PB on Wed, will Saturdays beat Gloria Mackenzie record?

Topic closed. 58 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Masone.

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schmuckatelly's avatar - half planet.jpg
Jacksonville, Florida
United States
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March 17, 2013
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Posted: August 4, 2013, 11:32 am - IP Logged

Comparing this run of the powerball and when Gloria won, I think Next Saturday will top $600 million if no winners this Wednesday. In May before it was won, the jackpot was 270, then 360, then 590(600 advertised). 

This run, the jackpot went from 235 to 300, and now to 400. Do you think it will be 600 or more come next saturday if no winner on Wed?

    Romancandle's avatar - moon
    Upacreek
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    Posted: August 4, 2013, 12:06 pm - IP Logged

    I think its possible for sure... if nobody wins wednesday's drawing... this JP will surge big time... I'd put it at 600MM come Saturday

    -RC

      weshar75's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
      Mcminnville, Oregon
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      Posted: August 4, 2013, 12:22 pm - IP Logged

      With four days of sales until wednesday night I think it could be $500 to $600 million bye wednesday night.  Maybe I am wrong but it could happen!-weshar75

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        whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
        Nutley, New Jersey
        United States
        Member #131058
        August 1, 2012
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        Posted: August 4, 2013, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

        Comparing this run of the powerball and when Gloria won, I think Next Saturday will top $600 million if no winners this Wednesday. In May before it was won, the jackpot was 270, then 360, then 590(600 advertised). 

        This run, the jackpot went from 235 to 300, and now to 400. Do you think it will be 600 or more come next saturday if no winner on Wed?

        It's impossible to know how many winning tickets will be sold. The jackpot could be split. Even if the jackpot rolls to $600 million, there could be 2, 3, 4 or even 5 or more winning tickets sold. Most people like to play birthdays, so if the numbers drawn are all less than 32 there could be many winning tickets.

        The largest US jackpot is still $656 million for Mega Millions set back on March 30th, 2012. There were 3 winning tickets for that jackpot, so the money was split 3 ways, each winning ticket worth $218.6 million.

        .

          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
          Los Angeles, California
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          January 5, 2011
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          Posted: August 4, 2013, 2:06 pm - IP Logged

          Comparing this run of the powerball and when Gloria won, I think Next Saturday will top $600 million if no winners this Wednesday. In May before it was won, the jackpot was 270, then 360, then 590(600 advertised). 

          This run, the jackpot went from 235 to 300, and now to 400. Do you think it will be 600 or more come next saturday if no winner on Wed?

          If this PB run survives another draw, it will probably beat Gloria's amount.(projected $646M) It might not eclipse the all time MM high of $656M, but it will be close.

          In the graph below, you can see that Sales were actually lower on this run up until a few draws ago, when the Jackpot ticked over the psychological $200M threshold where the buying frenzy starts. The only reason it was equal or higher Jackpot amounts compared to the same points previously, is due to higher yield on the annuity compared to the run a few months ago. But now, not only have Sales caught up, it is actually increasing more due to the higher Jackpot. This is a perfect example of how a high (annuity pumped up) Jackpot drives up Sales.

          PowerballRuns

          In the graph, previous run is Orange, denoted by (G) for Gloria. Current run is Blue.

            Romancandle's avatar - moon
            Upacreek
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            Posted: August 4, 2013, 2:45 pm - IP Logged

            Excellent graph/data Jon D.!

            Hmmm... if it does roll one more time... wonder if the "frenzy multiplier" (f squared Hyper) will take effect and help push your $646 projection over the top and eclipse MM's $656 record?  We're only talking $10 million...?

            Could be lights out for you Mega Millions!

            -RC

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              WV
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              March 2, 2011
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              Posted: August 4, 2013, 3:08 pm - IP Logged

              Excellent graph/data Jon D.!

              Hmmm... if it does roll one more time... wonder if the "frenzy multiplier" (f squared Hyper) will take effect and help push your $646 projection over the top and eclipse MM's $656 record?  We're only talking $10 million...?

              Could be lights out for you Mega Millions!

              If it rolls Sat then its possible that the annuity record could be beat but not  cash value record of 471 which was what the MM record is. Have to have 2 ollovers to do

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                NY
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                Posted: August 4, 2013, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

                Here's what the increases have been for the record and for the current run:

                116   +24    140   +25    165   +26    191   +31    222   +48   270    +94   364    +226   590

                116   +25    141   +25    166   +30    196   +39   235   +72    300   +93   400  +? 

                From the same starting point the increases were the same or very close, but then began increasing. Not counting the most recent (which will almost certainly change), the increases have been 25% and then 50% greater for the current run. If that trend continues we would expect the current advertised value to finish at 425 to 450 million, but that's ignoring the effect of advertising $400 million. There's a very good chance that we'll see a final increase similar to the last one  from the jackpot run, which would push the advertised value to something more than $525 million.

                No matter how it turns out, I can't imagine another roll not pushing it well past the $590 million advertised value of the previous PB record. The only question is whether it will set a real record by exceeding the cash value of the previous PB record.

                Assuming sales are driven by the advertised jackpot of (more than) $400 million and not the number of rolls, I think another roll would push it well beyond $700 million. Based on the current cash value, it would need to be advertised as more than $818 million to have a bigger cash value than the MM record. I think there's a good chance that could happen with another roll.

                FWIW, the cash value for the previous PB record was 65.5% of the annuity value. Right now it's 57.6% If rates were still the same, the $307 million that Saturday's drawing topped out at would have been advertised as $270 million. That means that in real money this roll is merely matching the record.

                  Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                  Los Angeles, California
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                  Posted: August 4, 2013, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

                  Excellent graph/data Jon D.!

                  Hmmm... if it does roll one more time... wonder if the "frenzy multiplier" (f squared Hyper) will take effect and help push your $646 projection over the top and eclipse MM's $656 record?  We're only talking $10 million...?

                  Could be lights out for you Mega Millions!

                  That number is just my own conservative estimation, which has a few percentage points margin of error. Even more for the Saturday drawing.

                  The lottery itself is going by very conservative sales numbers of about $180M for next draw, which based on past draws. In fact, it's the same as the 13th draw last time. But they also have a higher "annuity factor" which is also a big variable.(the interest rate, how well will the markets doing next week?)

                  I expect higher sales, but went with previous lower annuity factor. But if the annuity factor holds and we have higher sales as expected, we could see the next Jackpot draws be $410M, $660M, and then in uncharted territory after that.($1.2B? the 3-digit signs won't fit!)

                  So they might bump up the JP value again as we approach Wed draw. They seem to like to do that, more of the Jedi mind tricks build up the excitement and entice people to play. They know what they're doing...

                    haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
                    Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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                    Posted: August 4, 2013, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

                    If no winner Wednesday then I think It will set a new record,

                    It looks like MM Is being Ignored and every dollar Is chasing PB.

                    Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

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                      London
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                      Posted: August 4, 2013, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

                      Good luck everyone.

                      2016 Won/Lost

                      EuroMillions / Spent: £22 / Won £0 / Total -£22

                      UK Lotto / Spent: £4 / Won: £0 / Total: -£4

                      2016 Total: -£24

                      Jan: -£22 Feb: £0 ~ Mar: £0 ~ April: £0 ~ May: £0 ~ June: £0 ~ July: £2

                       

                      EuroMillions = £2 Line / Played: x11 [old price] 

                      EuroMillions = £2.50 Line / Played: x0

                      UK Lotto = £2 Line / Played x2

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                        Milwaukee, WI
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                        Posted: August 4, 2013, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

                        I would be VERY happy to be in 2nd place!

                          noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                          Bay Area - California
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                          Posted: August 5, 2013, 12:26 am - IP Logged

                          I think its possible for sure... if nobody wins wednesday's drawing... this JP will surge big time... I'd put it at 600MM come Saturday

                          The Only Way to Win for certain on Wednesday is to " Cut In Line".Its a proven formula when the Stakes are high.

                          Others who did allow line cutters in that ended up winning the Big Ones are not stepping forward to say so for fear of being ridiculed, pointed out as weaklings. The Only one who decided to step up to the plate was Mindy- but look what it got her?- Nothing!

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                            Posted: August 5, 2013, 11:27 am - IP Logged

                            It could happenWink

                            I Love Pink & Green 1908

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                              FL
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                              Posted: August 6, 2013, 8:30 pm - IP Logged

                              I hope it's won by someone who actually deserves to win it not some old bat who likes to use her senior status to act like a jerk to people!