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Rollover probabilities for Powerball at $400M annuity.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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Posted: August 4, 2013, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot now stands at 400M, and from the annuity values of this jackpot and the previous one, one can determine that the lottery is estimating 88,377,000 tickets will be sold, with sales being twice that amount.

Assuming that the estimate is accurate - I will try to repost new figures if, as I expect, the jackpot grows - the Poisson distribution for the number of winners is as follows:

 

k, number of winnersp(m,k)
060.39%
130.46%
27.68%
31.29%
40.16%
50.02%

 

Right now the most probable outcome is another rollover, and the second most probable outcome is a single winner.

The expectation value is a rather pathetic - given the size of the jackpot - 0.76.    With the two dollar ticket the days in which lottery jackpots could become a "good bet" (expectation value > 1.00) are past, unless the jackpot hits a billion dollars annuity.