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Powerball underestimated by that much?

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Jon D.

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Bradly_60's avatar - disney37
Atlantic Mine, Michigan
United States
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June 23, 2002
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Posted: September 14, 2013, 11:12 pm - IP Logged

So per the drawing video the jackpot for tonight was $301m.  It was advertised at $317m.  Where sales really that slow?

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    United States
    Member #135804
    November 29, 2012
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    Posted: September 14, 2013, 11:16 pm - IP Logged

    Everyone has large jackpot fatigue. $300 million is chump change

      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
      United States
      Member #146344
      September 1, 2013
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      Posted: September 14, 2013, 11:20 pm - IP Logged

      So per the drawing video the jackpot for tonight was $301m.  It was advertised at $317m.  Where sales really that slow?

      Yes, the initial sales estimate for the draw from Wednesday was revised to be about $13 million less.

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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        New Member
        NEW YORK CITY
        United States
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        September 13, 2013
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        Posted: September 14, 2013, 11:30 pm - IP Logged

        I wouldn't call it slow, they projected at advertised 317 million, 16 million less. Last draw was 245million and now 301million, 23% increase. Thats a 56million increase jackpot raise. Which means 112 million total sales. Remeber half the money raised goes to increase jackpot, rest is payouts and what the state takes in. According to this information only 32% of all combinations have been used. This is not exact.

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          NY
          United States
          Member #23835
          October 16, 2005
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          Posted: September 15, 2013, 1:22 am - IP Logged

          The real increase in the jackpot is the increase in the cash value, which was about $31.3 million (based on the curent cash/annuity ratio; that may be slightly different than for the past two drawings).  A hair under 32% of sales goes to the jackpot, so each ticket contributes just under 64 cents. That works out to just under 49 million tickets to increase the jackpot by 31.3 million. That would have used less than 25% of the possible combinations.

          The currently advertised jackpot of $400 million means a cash increase of just under $56 million, which requires sales of about 88 million tickets. That would use about 40% of the combinations, leaving a 60% chance of another rollover, assuming the jackpot doesn't increase before the drawing.

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            United States
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            November 29, 2012
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            Posted: September 15, 2013, 2:08 am - IP Logged

            The real increase in the jackpot is the increase in the cash value, which was about $31.3 million (based on the curent cash/annuity ratio; that may be slightly different than for the past two drawings).  A hair under 32% of sales goes to the jackpot, so each ticket contributes just under 64 cents. That works out to just under 49 million tickets to increase the jackpot by 31.3 million. That would have used less than 25% of the possible combinations.

            The currently advertised jackpot of $400 million means a cash increase of just under $56 million, which requires sales of about 88 million tickets. That would use about 40% of the combinations, leaving a 60% chance of another rollover, assuming the jackpot doesn't increase before the drawing.

            Why even guess what sales were required? Just check lottoreport. $101.3 million in sales + $5.975 mill powerplay

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              Morrison, IL
              United States
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              May 13, 2004
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              Posted: September 15, 2013, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

              This is the first time in history Powerball has had back-to-back $400 million+ jackpot runs (or even back-to-back $300 million+ jackpot runs).

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                Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                Los Angeles, California
                United States
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                January 5, 2011
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                Posted: September 16, 2013, 6:30 pm - IP Logged

                Why even guess what sales were required? Just check lottoreport. $101.3 million in sales + $5.975 mill powerplay

                They have past sales, but not future sales, which is what was being discussed.

                Normally, they do conservatively underestimate the sales, but lately, the jackpots have been in uncharted territory, so they've had to make corrections in both directions on many occasions in the past few big runs. Using the lates numbers, the current $400M JP is based on projected sales of approx $188M.(of which, 29.97% goes to feed to JP pool)

                This current run is on track to easily surpass the 5/18/13 "Gloria" record PB win. And not only that, it will do it one draw earlier than that one. Already, the JP and cash values are on par with that previous run after 11 rolls (the 12th draw) compared to previous after 12 rolls.(13th draw) If it survives another roll, it should be in record territory the following draw around $650M, and then literally off the chart at over a Billion the next on the 14th draw.(same draw as the "Gloria" win)

                Graph below comparing the current run in blue, versus the previous record "Gloria" run in orange:

                PowerballRuns3