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Billion dollar lottery in March

Topic closed. 44 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Masone.

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Will you fill out a bracket?

Yes [ 16 ]  [69.57%]
No [ 7 ]  [30.43%]
Total Valid Votes [ 23 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 1 ]  
Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
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Posted: January 23, 2014, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

Yes, that's true. Forbes misquoted the odds as 1 in 4 trillion something. They got that number from someone else who got it wrong.

I read the article you linked but nowhere does it specifically name the odds you posted. It vaguely mentions "67 games" which in itself is deceptive. The NCAA tournament starts with 68 teams, but the brackets only contain 64 teams (The First Four round determines which 4 teams are eliminated; this sets the bracket for the tournament). So there are 63 "official" tournament games that must be played until there remains 1 team as the champion.

Quicken wouldn't advertise the grand prize with the odds I posted if they were different. They've already worked out the math and set the official rules.

Oh LottoMetro, LottoMetro,

Mr. Lottery industry insider. Tell us again, are you here being an irritating twerp in an official capacity, or are you just here doing that on your own?

So, I posted to this topic in regards to an interesting comment Buffett said about a side offer for making it to the final four, which I heard on the news and also showed you in print from LA Times. Are you still disputing that as rumor? Do you have evidence that he didn't say that? Anyway, it's just an interesting angle on this interesting contest. Relax bro.

As far as the bracket, there are 127 spaces for teams on your standard bracket. 60 are prefilled and 4 are contests from the first four. The question is, if those 4 have to be filled in as well for this contest. The difference being 63 game outcomes versus 67 with the first four. Do you have the official game bracket? If so please share. You can look at a sample bracket from the POTUS here:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/president-obama-2013-ncaa-tournament-bracket.jpeg

And as far as the odds I posted, I would think you as a mathematician would know where that number 1 in 147.5 quintillion comes from. But you can also read it on Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Championship

There are 2^63 or 9.2 quintillion possibilities for the possible winners in a 64-team NCAA bracket, making the odds of randomly picking a perfect bracket (i.e. without weighting for seed number) 9.2 quintillion to 1.[49] With the expansion of the tournament field to 68 teams in 2011, there are now 2^67 or 147,573,952,589,676,412,928 (147.57 quintillion) possibilities.

    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    Happyland
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    Posted: January 23, 2014, 5:23 pm - IP Logged

    Oh LottoMetro, LottoMetro,

    Mr. Lottery industry insider. Tell us again, are you here being an irritating twerp in an official capacity, or are you just here doing that on your own?

    So, I posted to this topic in regards to an interesting comment Buffett said about a side offer for making it to the final four, which I heard on the news and also showed you in print from LA Times. Are you still disputing that as rumor? Do you have evidence that he didn't say that? Anyway, it's just an interesting angle on this interesting contest. Relax bro.

    As far as the bracket, there are 127 spaces for teams on your standard bracket. 60 are prefilled and 4 are contests from the first four. The question is, if those 4 have to be filled in as well for this contest. The difference being 63 game outcomes versus 67 with the first four. Do you have the official game bracket? If so please share. You can look at a sample bracket from the POTUS here:

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/president-obama-2013-ncaa-tournament-bracket.jpeg

    And as far as the odds I posted, I would think you as a mathematician would know where that number 1 in 147.5 quintillion comes from. But you can also read it on Wikipedia:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Championship

    There are 2^63 or 9.2 quintillion possibilities for the possible winners in a 64-team NCAA bracket, making the odds of randomly picking a perfect bracket (i.e. without weighting for seed number) 9.2 quintillion to 1.[49] With the expansion of the tournament field to 68 teams in 2011, there are now 2^67 or 147,573,952,589,676,412,928 (147.57 quintillion) possibilities.

    You didn't post a source with your original post, so why wouldn't I assume it was just a rumor? The numbers I posted came from the contest sponsor itself, so I think that is about as official as it gets. The bracket you posted is the bracket that they use. Read at the top where it says "Round of 64." Notice what's missing? The "First Four" round that comes before it (which I mentioned). This is not a part of the official tournament, which is why the number of teams on a NCAA bracket is 4 fewer than 68, or 64. So the odds of picking a perfect bracket are based on the 64 team number.

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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      NEW YORK
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      Posted: January 23, 2014, 6:08 pm - IP Logged

      Thrifty will win cause he doesn't have to spend a dollar to win, lol.  Fingers crossed!!

      $100 compounding annually at 10% for 145 years would be worth more than $100 Million.

      US Flag

      PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

        Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
        Los Angeles, California
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        Posted: January 23, 2014, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

        You didn't post a source with your original post, so why wouldn't I assume it was just a rumor? The numbers I posted came from the contest sponsor itself, so I think that is about as official as it gets. The bracket you posted is the bracket that they use. Read at the top where it says "Round of 64." Notice what's missing? The "First Four" round that comes before it (which I mentioned). This is not a part of the official tournament, which is why the number of teams on a NCAA bracket is 4 fewer than 68, or 64. So the odds of picking a perfect bracket are based on the 64 team number.

        Oh, pardonnez-moi,

        Attention everyone: you cannot post any factual comment without including a valid source/link for LottoMetro, mmmkay? ROFL

        Actually, I think we've uncovered the root of your personality disorder and the reason for your own admitted lack of social skills: You automatically assume that everyone else is wrong and that LottoMetro is right. That is the answer to why you are so abrasive in your interactions with people. And that attitude permeates all of your posts. I think you should talk to a professional about this. I'm glad we had this epiphany! Thumbs Up

          veganlife125's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

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          Posted: January 23, 2014, 8:39 pm - IP Logged

          I heard Buffett said on the news that if someone somehow overcomes the odds of having a correct bracket all the way up to the final four, that he may do a Deal or No Deal type of offer to buy them out at that point.

          He'll make them an offer they can't refuse. Wink

          "The banker will offer to buy your case for $100 million . . . or you can sleep with the fishes." Dead

          So do you take the $100M and walk away, or risk it all (winning nothing) for the chance at the billion (annuity) or $500M cash?

          That reminds me of the movie "Brewsters Millions" with Richard Pryor back in the 1980's!  I doubt though Warren Buffet would offer 100 million to start.  He is the greatest businessman of all time and knows how to negotiate.

          Id quess he would take a page from that old game show "Lets Make A Deal".  He would test your mettle by starting at 10 million after he met you at the final four.  If you didn't budge he would go up to say 25 million.  If you still held out he would let the final four teams play and hope you didn't go 2 for 2.  If you made it that far he would hit you up with an offer of 50 million an hour before the final game. 

          For all practical purposes any of those offers would let you live closer to a billionaire as opposed to being broke.  I would take an offer before the final four. The odds would be in his favor and he is lucky as well as good.  Now if you were already rich( say 5 million or more in assets) then let it ride for the billion.Big Grin

          Don't forget to visit the Lottery Post Gift Shop!

            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
            Los Angeles, California
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            Posted: January 23, 2014, 8:55 pm - IP Logged

            That reminds me of the movie "Brewsters Millions" with Richard Pryor back in the 1980's!  I doubt though Warren Buffet would offer 100 million to start.  He is the greatest businessman of all time and knows how to negotiate.

            Id quess he would take a page from that old game show "Lets Make A Deal".  He would test your mettle by starting at 10 million after he met you at the final four.  If you didn't budge he would go up to say 25 million.  If you still held out he would let the final four teams play and hope you didn't go 2 for 2.  If you made it that far he would hit you up with an offer of 50 million an hour before the final game. 

            For all practical purposes any of those offers would let you live closer to a billionaire as opposed to being broke.  I would take an offer before the final four. The odds would be in his favor and he is lucky as well as good.  Now if you were already rich( say 5 million or more in assets) then let it ride for the billion.Big Grin

            I Agree! Buffett is a very shrewd businessman, and a great role model. Yeah, I'm sure he'd make a lowball offer to start, it wouldn't be $100M from the get go. He'd make you sweat it a bit, see what it's worth to you. You don't get that rich by being a softie.

            That's why I'm a little suspicious of the details and discrepancies right now. Even though it's likely a 63 game bracket that you have to predict, it would not surprise me if they clarified the rules come Mar. 3rd and say, "oh, BTW you have to pick the first four game winners as well." That's just thought, may not happen. But remember how this whole thing started, with the question what is a "perfect bracket" worth? (what is a perfect bracket?)

              psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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              Posted: January 23, 2014, 9:26 pm - IP Logged

              http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2014/01/21/warren-buffett-offers-1-billion-for-perfect-march-madness-bracket/

              Today, Warren Buffett had tongues wagging about basketball. The billionaire, who ranks 4th on Forbes list of top billionaires, with an estimated worth of $53 billion, wants to make you an offer: he’ll give you $1 billion for a perfect March Madness bracket.

              Nope, that’s not a typo.

              Buffett, together with his company, Berkshire Hathaway, are offering $1 billion to any person who can correctly pick the winners of all 63 games in this year’s NCAA men’s college basketball tournament. Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are partnering with Quicken Loans, owned by fellow billionaire Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert, to offer the ‘Quicken Loans Billion Dollar Bracket.’ Gilbert is listed at #384 of Forbes’ list of billionaires with an estimated net worth of $3.9 billion.

              The odds of winning are said to be one in 4,294,967,296.

              Chances are terrible, but terrible odds have never stopped any of us from playing the jackpot games lol. And it's free to play too, even better!

              MSON:

              Red>yellow>black>white or blue>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

              "all" over the WORLD we have the EQUAL OPPORTUNITY to WIN a GREAT PRIZE!!

              $1 billion for a perfect March Madness [bracket] $$$$$$!

              THINK POSITIVE>>>>>>>>>>>>>cut UR>>ODD$$!

              Thank GOD 4 Todd of D Lottery Post>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>and warren buffet and JIMMY>>2222!!

                                                                             HyperDrumHyper

                veganlife125's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

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                Posted: January 23, 2014, 9:45 pm - IP Logged

                I Agree! Buffett is a very shrewd businessman, and a great role model. Yeah, I'm sure he'd make a lowball offer to start, it wouldn't be $100M from the get go. He'd make you sweat it a bit, see what it's worth to you. You don't get that rich by being a softie.

                That's why I'm a little suspicious of the details and discrepancies right now. Even though it's likely a 63 game bracket that you have to predict, it would not surprise me if they clarified the rules come Mar. 3rd and say, "oh, BTW you have to pick the first four game winners as well." That's just thought, may not happen. But remember how this whole thing started, with the question what is a "perfect bracket" worth? (what is a perfect bracket?)

                I Agree!  Watch it be won by "another old geezer with one foot in the grave" just to get our friend "Shelby Mustang" all riled up!

                Don't forget to visit the Lottery Post Gift Shop!

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: January 23, 2014, 11:07 pm - IP Logged

                  Thumbs Up Yep, I would too! Don't know what his offer would be, he didn't say. That's just a guess.

                  I've seen other reports say that it's not just your regular 64 team bracket,(63 games) they want you to pick the first four as well, choosing all 67 games correctly. That makes it even harder, instead of 9.2 quintillion, that's a whopping 147.5 quintillion to one.

                  So if you somehow make it to the final four, you beat 1 in 18.4 quintillion odds already. So to risk all or nothing on a 1 in 8 chance to go for the billion dollars?

                  Nah...I'll take the $100M or so and walk, thanks.

                  The tourney went to 67 games several years ago, but because of time they gave the players up until the start time of the first second round (field of 64) game to turn in their bracket sheets. Just to get an idea of how tough picking a perfect bracket is, out of 5.9 million brackets filled out for the ESPN bracket challenge, only 317 were still perfect after the day (16 games). Those statistics are from 2011 tourney with only three upsets on the first day. That year there were only two players that correctly picked the final four and neither of those brackets were perfect.

                  I don't know if this challenge includes the "play-in" games, but if it does, several perfect brackets will be history after the first game. Last year's champ Louisville was winner on 21.7% of the brackets. The Michigan - Louisville match-up was on less than 3.5% of the brackets. Very few of the top 25 2013 brackets even had a perfect region.

                  In 2010 there was a story about an autistic teen picking the first two rounds correctly and a college student did it in 2009, but neither of them picked the eventual winner so no perfect bracket.

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                    Posted: January 23, 2014, 11:24 pm - IP Logged

                    So what would you people buy if you won?

                    How would you find the best financial lawyer?

                    Would you give money to family?

                    Is giving money to your friends acceptable?

                    Is winning that much moral?

                    What type of car would you buy?

                    Will you donate money to a charity?

                    Would you keep playing the lottery after a major win?

                    Would you buy this ticket in a store that had the most winners?

                    Do you play QPs or self picks?

                    How much cash would you carry if you won a billion?

                    Where would you invest that money?

                     

                    Please add any I left out. Green laugh

                    I know you're being facetious, but there were what can be considered "must win" PB and MM drawings. With over 9.2 quintillion possibilities, the $1 billion prize looks pretty safe.

                      Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
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                      Posted: January 23, 2014, 11:31 pm - IP Logged

                      The tourney went to 67 games several years ago, but because of time they gave the players up until the start time of the first second round (field of 64) game to turn in their bracket sheets. Just to get an idea of how tough picking a perfect bracket is, out of 5.9 million brackets filled out for the ESPN bracket challenge, only 317 were still perfect after the day (16 games). Those statistics are from 2011 tourney with only three upsets on the first day. That year there were only two players that correctly picked the final four and neither of those brackets were perfect.

                      I don't know if this challenge includes the "play-in" games, but if it does, several perfect brackets will be history after the first game. Last year's champ Louisville was winner on 21.7% of the brackets. The Michigan - Louisville match-up was on less than 3.5% of the brackets. Very few of the top 25 2013 brackets even had a perfect region.

                      In 2010 there was a story about an autistic teen picking the first two rounds correctly and a college student did it in 2009, but neither of them picked the eventual winner so no perfect bracket.

                      Yeah, this thing ain't gonna be won. I'd bet on that. Wink

                      And the whole deal about the final four offer is just more marketing hype. Good 'ol Buffett is pretty darn sure he'll make a nice profit, and Quicken loans get some good marketing.

                      Like he told his business partner on the price for insuring this contest:

                      "Dan would say it's too much, I would say it's too little," Buffett said of the  premium.

                      And anyway, $500M is just chump change for Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, on the off chance (shark/lightning) of there being a winner.

                        psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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                        Posted: January 23, 2014, 11:49 pm - IP Logged

                        Same ole Warren Buffett Hit With Stick

                        HMW:

                        >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>UR ah winner$$$$$$$$$$$$already>>>>but>>>>>>>please help>>>>>>>PLEASE

                        red>yellow>black>white> or blue keep on help'n>>>>>>>>>>>>LP>>>>>>>>members helpuswin$$$$$$$

                                                                                           HyperDrumHyper

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                          Posted: January 24, 2014, 12:51 am - IP Logged

                          Yeah, this thing ain't gonna be won. I'd bet on that. Wink

                          And the whole deal about the final four offer is just more marketing hype. Good 'ol Buffett is pretty darn sure he'll make a nice profit, and Quicken loans get some good marketing.

                          Like he told his business partner on the price for insuring this contest:

                          "Dan would say it's too much, I would say it's too little," Buffett said of the  premium.

                          And anyway, $500M is just chump change for Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, on the off chance (shark/lightning) of there being a winner.

                          I'm trying to figure out why Buffett is the making the offer because surely he knows there will be no payoff. Maybe it's his way of saying investing in your future beats counting on lottery jackpot winnings or unbelievably picking a perfect NCAA basketball bracket.

                          In 2012 women's tourney all the number 1 seeds made the final four when they played and beat all the number 2 seeds in the regional finals. All anyone had to do was pick all the 1 and 2 seeds to make the elite 8 yet there was not one perfect bracket to that point. Will I enter; sure why not, I enter almost all the free brackets anyways. I won't be counting the winnings though because the best I've done is pick 12 of the Sweet 16.

                            mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
                            JACKPOT HUNTER

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                            Posted: January 24, 2014, 7:10 pm - IP Logged

                            This guy is a real genius, OMAHA, OMAHA. Just look at the amount of publicity this event is generating. By the time it is all said and done, he will probably garner more in free publicity, than anything he has to pay out in prizes, not that he needs the money or the publicity.

                            Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

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                              Posted: January 25, 2014, 1:03 am - IP Logged

                              There's a lot more skilled involved in this game than in a game like MM or PB. I bet if the same amount of people played a bracket based on a knowledge of the teams involved as the people that play the MM when it's 500m+, someone would win that billion dollars.