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Are correct probability calculation?

Topic closed. 7 replies. Last post 6 years ago by SergeM.

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Are correct this calculation? , Please recommend it correct calculation

Regular ball a total of 75 numbers
The probability of select the first number in the Mega million = 1/75
The probability of select the second number in the Mega million = 1/74
The probability of select the third number in the Mega million = 1/73
The probability of select the fourth number in the Mega million = 1/72
The probability of select the fifth number in the Mega million = 1/71


The selected numbers or winning numbers are not replaced in the basket, then the probability of choosing five numerous is the sum of the prior probabilities =
1/75 + 1/74 + 1/73 + 1/72 + 1/71 =

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    Happyland
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    Member #146340
    September 1, 2013
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    Are correct this calculation? , Please recommend it correct calculation

    Regular ball a total of 75 numbers
    The probability of select the first number in the Mega million = 1/75
    The probability of select the second number in the Mega million = 1/74
    The probability of select the third number in the Mega million = 1/73
    The probability of select the fourth number in the Mega million = 1/72
    The probability of select the fifth number in the Mega million = 1/71


    The selected numbers or winning numbers are not replaced in the basket, then the probability of choosing five numerous is the sum of the prior probabilities =
    1/75 + 1/74 + 1/73 + 1/72 + 1/71 =

    1) Close, but you don't add. You multiply and get probability = 4.82829E-10

    2) Divide 1/probability found in #1 = 2,071,126,800

    3) Find 5! (factorial 5, or 5*4*3*2*1) since you can choose the 5 numbers in any order = 120

    4) Divide #2 by #3 = 17,259,390

    5) For MM, multiply #4 by 15 since there are 15 different Mega balls = 258,890,850

    Those are the odds. You can divide 1 by 258,890,850 to get the probability in decimal form. Note that if you compare #4 to the odds for 2nd prize in MM, it will be different. This is because their odds are the odds of matching only that prize and no other prize (which is harder). To get these odds you would multiply #4 by 15/14 to get approximately 18,492,204.

    Thumbs Up

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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      Happyland
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      By the way, a shortcut to bypass the probability conversion would be:

      = 75*74*73*72*71 / 5!

      That gives you #4, then just multiply by 15 to get #5, which you can divide into 1 to get the actual probability. Even easier would be to use Excel's COMBIN function or TI-84 calculator nCr function to get "n choose k," where n = 75 and k = 5. Then do step #5 as prescribed.

      Big Smile

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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        Economy class
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        February 27, 2012
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        51
        4350
        324150
        2547400
        14584475
        012103014
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          Coral Springs
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          4350
          324150
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          012103014

          Please explain more your comment. I don't understand.

            SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
            Economy class
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            Please explain more your comment. I don't understand.

            5/5 from 75 numbers : 1 time
            4/5 ...

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              Very good answer, thank you

                SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                Economy class
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                I thought you might figure that one out on your own.