Please help me gain a better understanding of percentiles.Prev Topic Next Topic

GoogilyMoogily

United States
Member #35,334
March 16, 2006
238 Posts
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Mar 13, 2014, 7:02 pm

I have a MM/PB system that creates a pool (array) of numbers that favors "cold" numbers. If a number was drawn last, it gets one "ball" entered into the array, two draws back gets two "balls", etc. For the MM, the number 9 came up on Mar 11, so it gets one. The number 11 came up on Mar 7, so it gets two. It only gets a number based on the last time drawn, so the number 11 that came up on Feb 7 does not count. Additionally, most drawn numbers, such as 23 and 35 which have come up 7 times, those common numbers only go in the pool once. The numbers 38, 55, 61 and 68 have not come up yet, so they get put in the pool 7 times. To make sure I'm not confusing anybody, including myself, each number goes into an array (the pool) of numbers based on two different criteria, which increase the number of times a number can appear in the pool based on how long ago and how often it has been drawn. Well, since there have been 41 draws in the current MM 1-75,15 configuration, the pools are a little lopsided. Doing a countif() on each number gets a maximum number 7, but doing some date calculations gives the number of balls at 41 for those numbers not yet drawn. I don't like this lopsidedness. The array (or pool) has grown to 1353 numbers. Rather than have such numbers, such as the 41 for those numbers yet to be drawn, I would like to add numbers to the pool based on percentiles. If I had a 3rd/4th/5th percentile calculation, for example, the 1/n^th last drawn, or 1/n^th most commonly drawn would each get one in the pool, whereas the longest since drawn, or the least commonly drawn (coldest numbers), would get the highest percentile number for the pool. If I decided that my percentiles should be in quarters, these coldest numbers (by my definition) would each get 4 put in the pool, and my array will seem more meaningful to me. I am so sorry for the wall of text as I have a difficult time explaining myself.
SergeM

Economy class
Belgium
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February 27, 2012
4,035 Posts
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Mar 13, 2014, 9:35 pm

Try percentiles in Excel. You need input values to try.
LottoBoner

United States
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March 14, 2012
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Mar 13, 2014, 10:20 pm

Percentiles piss me off. But not as much as quartiles.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Mar 14, 2014, 5:16 pm

If you go back 63 drawings instead of just 41 when the 5/75+1/15 matrix started then all the numbers except 61 and 68 have come up. You'll want as much history as you can get to pick your pool. Good luck!

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
GoogilyMoogily

United States
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March 16, 2006
238 Posts
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Mar 14, 2014, 5:38 pm

@RJOh: I respectfully disagree. Oct 18, 2013 was the cut in date for the new matrix. I count 41 draws, not inclucing tonight.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
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March 24, 2001
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Mar 14, 2014, 5:54 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on Mar 14, 2014
@RJOh: I respectfully disagree. Oct 18, 2013 was the cut in date for the new matrix. I count 41 draws, not inclucing tonight.

True but when the drawings didn't include any numbers higher than 55 it didn't matter whether you used the new matrix or not was the only point I was making.

03/04/14 - 10 29 31 35 45 +10
02/21/14 - 23 29 32 45 46 +15
01/31/14 - 03 09 13 47 52 +08
01/21/14 - 08 23 33 45 52 +04
01/17/14 - 01 10 26 31 51 +11
12/27/13 - 04 15 35 48 49 +11
12/17/13 - 08 14 17 20 39 +07
11/22/13 - 17 23 35 36 44 +08
10/29/13 - 20 33 50 53 54 +07

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123,694
February 27, 2012
4,035 Posts
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Mar 14, 2014, 6:49 pm

Example:

Number	Frequency
1	40
2	42
3	41
4	38
5	41
6	37
7	41
8	46
9	38
10	36
11	39
12	38
13	37
14	45
15	46
16	37
17	44
18	48
19	41
20	50
21	54
22	39
23	38
24	41
25	45
26	38
27	46
28	55
29	33
30	29
31	36
32	30
33	35
34	35
35	46
36	52
37	40
38	51
39	37
40	49
41	49
42	47
43	42
44	30
45	40
P.	P.
0%	29
5%	31
10%	35
15%	36
20%	37
25%	37
30%	38
35%	38
40%	39
45%	40
50%	41
55%	41
60%	41
65%	43
70%	45
75%	46
80%	46
85%	48
90%	50
95%	52
100%	55

sflottolover

San Leandro, very near Oakland and San Francisco.
United States
Member #148,584
November 5, 2013
98 Posts
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Mar 18, 2014, 7:12 pm

Yeah, I also agree this change may get different result since this date from Oct 22, 2013, therefore, the percentiles won't follow up with the previous records. It should start a new once since #870 of 10/22/2013.

I would ilike to look up for the hot numbers and cold numbers both are important for the new numbers to be predicted. It's mega number is my most attention to care, because it may affect your whole rewards! I try to put each record into a cur line graph drawing for the purpose to watch it's up or down and space etc..!

Appreciate your long time following records!

Thanks for your kindness to visit my posting; and left me your warmness for my slow chewing!

Those who wants to win lottery is normal; and it is abnormal if anybody does not want to win!

http://www.writers-network.com/members/sfiawong
sflottolover

San Leandro, very near Oakland and San Francisco.
United States
Member #148,584
November 5, 2013
98 Posts
Offline

Apr 2, 2014, 8:47 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GoogilyMoogily on Mar 13, 2014
I have a MM/PB system that creates a pool (array) of numbers that favors "cold" numbers. If a number was drawn last, it gets one "ball" entered into the array, two draws back gets two "balls", etc. For the MM, the number 9 came up on Mar 11, so it gets one. The number 11 came up on Mar 7, so it gets two. It only gets a number based on the last time drawn, so the number 11 that came up on Feb 7 does not count. Additionally, most drawn numbers, such as 23 and 35 which have come up 7 times, those common numbers only go in the pool once. The numbers 38, 55, 61 and 68 have not come up yet, so they get put in the pool 7 times. To make sure I'm not confusing anybody, including myself, each number goes into an array (the pool) of numbers based on two different criteria, which increase the number of times a number can appear in the pool based on how long ago and how often it has been drawn. Well, since there have been 41 draws in the current MM 1-75,15 configuration, the pools are a little lopsided. Doing a countif() on each number gets a maximum number 7, but doing some date calculations gives the number of balls at 41 for those numbers not yet drawn. I don't like this lopsidedness. The array (or pool) has grown to 1353 numbers. Rather than have such numbers, such as the 41 for those numbers yet to be drawn, I would like to add numbers to the pool based on percentiles. If I had a 3rd/4th/5th percentile calculation, for example, the 1/n^th last drawn, or 1/n^th most commonly drawn would each get one in the pool, whereas the longest since drawn, or the least commonly drawn (coldest numbers), would get the highest percentile number for the pool. If I decided that my percentiles should be in quarters, these coldest numbers (by my definition) would each get 4 put in the pool, and my array will seem more meaningful to me. I am so sorry for the wall of text as I have a difficult time explaining myself.

Notice according to your attention on percentiles between MM and PB, I think it is not quite suitable for MM, because it has be changed totals of both plain numbers and mega numbers. There are too many (75) numbers to be evaluation for their percentage. The mega numbers should not be included into the plain numbers, because they are separated into two different groups and out-put. Why should we include these two different groups of numbers together?

I think the Power Balls and Super Lotto Plus are more suitable to be calculated with percentiles. According for the evaluation methodes for prediction might be considerable; I might try to set up a good form of prediction arrangement a little bit later, (take a few days of thinking!).

Thanks for your kindness to visit my posting; and left me your warmness for my slow chewing!

Those who wants to win lottery is normal; and it is abnormal if anybody does not want to win!

http://www.writers-network.com/members/sfiawong
Igamble

nj
United States
Member #145,651
August 10, 2013
1,027 Posts
Offline

Apr 2, 2014, 11:01 pm

Quote: Originally posted by sflottolover on Apr 2, 2014
Notice according to your attention on percentiles between MM and PB, I think it is not quite suitable for MM, because it has be changed totals of both plain numbers and mega numbers. There are too many (75) numbers to be evaluation for their percentage. The mega numbers should not be included into the plain numbers, because they are separated into two different groups and out-put. Why should we include these two different groups of numbers together?

I think the Power Balls and Super Lotto Plus are more suitable to be calculated with percentiles. According for the evaluation methodes for prediction might be considerable; I might try to set up a good form of prediction arrangement a little bit later, (take a few days of thinking!).

Much improved is your writing and is easier to understand what you want to express .thanks !

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Please help me gain a better understanding of percentiles.Prev TopicNext Topic

Please help me gain a better understanding of percentiles.Prev Topic Next Topic