Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 10, 2016, 5:39 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Reduce the Pick 3 Odds To 3.5:1

Topic closed. 13 replies. Last post 3 years ago by MonEl.

Page 1 of 1
52
PrintE-mailLink

United States
Member #136148
December 4, 2012
99 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 3, 2014, 5:54 pm - IP Logged

Can you win the Pick 3 with reduced odds? Well, here's one way to do it.

Take the last pick and divide it into 3 pairs. 123 becomes 12,23,13 etc.

You play those 3 picks for the next two consecutive games. You just need to pick the third number correctly.

The pairs will be correct about 20% of the time in CA (check your state).

Pick 3 box in CA pays $80, so your winning Expected Value is $16.

Your cost per box play is 2 games x 3 picks or $6. Win $10 per game with 1:7 odds.

You just need to pick the third number. Rule out the 3 numbers from the prior pick (this includes your pair numbers). So for 123, rule out 1,2, and 3. This leaves 7 numbers to choose from and you just need to pick one. Your odds now are 1:7. If you've got a great way to pick the third number, share it here with stats.

Better odds

You can also play two numbers with the pairs = 2 games x 6 picks or $12 cost. Your odds of winning this are now 2:7 or 3.5 to 1.

Alternately, you can play just for 1 game (11% win rate, EV of $8.80) at $6 total cost and 3.5 to 1 odds.

Seems simple? No Nod

Good luck!

    Avatar
    new jersey
    United States
    Member #150815
    December 31, 2013
    513 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 3, 2014, 6:29 pm - IP Logged

    not   for   me

      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
      Park City, UT
      United States
      Member #69864
      January 18, 2009
      993 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 3, 2014, 11:19 pm - IP Logged

      In general for any state pick 3 game the median value for any pair to repeat is 5 draws.  The mean value is between 7-8 draws.

      Here is the current chart for California for the last 400 draws.

      anypair

      The thing that stands out from this chart is the Sums Repeat column.  This column counts how often the sums, shortsum, and root sum repeated from the previous draw.  If they all repeated you would have a value of 3.  If none repeated then the value is 0.  So the odds play is to play for the sum, shortsum, and rootsum to not repeat.  The mean value is 0.23 over the last 400 draws.

       

      Jimmy


        United States
        Member #136148
        December 4, 2012
        99 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 6, 2014, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

        Thanks Jimmy. Playing the no sum repeat strategy, how many sets does that leave to play?

          jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
          Park City, UT
          United States
          Member #69864
          January 18, 2009
          993 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 6, 2014, 1:16 pm - IP Logged

          Thanks Jimmy. Playing the no sum repeat strategy, how many sets does that leave to play?

          Well since depending on the long sum it will vary from draw to draw, its probably safe to say that it will eliminate approximately 160 straight combinations.

          If your playing locally at a retail store then you still have to come up with additional filters.  For the online player with $900 payout your on you way to having a playable strategy since you are already in the profit zone.  You just need a couple more filters that hit with a 90% consistency.

          I mainly focus on eliminating rootsum/shortsum since they eliminate more combinations than the long sum.

          Most states have median value for RootSum Draws Out of 5, and a median value for ShortSum Draws Out of 5 over the past year.  So what this means individually for say rootsum is that 50% of the time a RootSum will be 6 draws or longer out.  My first thought is great that eliminated 6*111 combinations, but no so fast their will probably be duplicate root sums in those previous 6 draws so it will be something less than 666 combinations eliminated.

          Anyway those are just some of the stats of the game.

          Jimmy

            Avatar

            United States
            Member #132100
            August 26, 2012
            1078 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: April 8, 2014, 1:14 am - IP Logged

            In general for any state pick 3 game the median value for any pair to repeat is 5 draws.  The mean value is between 7-8 draws.

            Here is the current chart for California for the last 400 draws.

            anypair

            The thing that stands out from this chart is the Sums Repeat column.  This column counts how often the sums, shortsum, and root sum repeated from the previous draw.  If they all repeated you would have a value of 3.  If none repeated then the value is 0.  So the odds play is to play for the sum, shortsum, and rootsum to not repeat.  The mean value is 0.23 over the last 400 draws.

             

            Jimmy

            So nothing is for sure, a pair might repeat any time within 1 to 10 draws or even a few more.

            One would need a way or ways to get closer to the "When".

            -----------------------------------

            There are 3 digits on singles and 3 pairs, that would leave:

            10-3=7 digits not accounted for, so:

            For each pair 7 X 3 pairs = 21 combinations per draw.

            One would need a way of reducing those 7 digits to some fewer, that is of getting closer to the one next winning digit.

            -----------

            Next, for singles there are 6 permutations, the chances of getting the next one straight permutation to come are 1/6, one would need a way of getting closer to the one next straight winning permutation.

            ------------

            Because 21 X 10 = 210 or 21 X 8 = 168 combinations.

            168-80=$88 in the hole.

            ---------------

            So a person would need to study and then think ways of reducing the odds in order to come even or make a profit.

            -------------

            For example, there are 3 pairs, but which one or which two have the best chance of the 3 of being the next winning pair?

            --------------

            Logical prediction techniques based on stats, that is where it is at.

              jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
              Park City, UT
              United States
              Member #69864
              January 18, 2009
              993 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: April 8, 2014, 10:32 am - IP Logged

              So nothing is for sure, a pair might repeat any time within 1 to 10 draws or even a few more.

              One would need a way or ways to get closer to the "When".

              -----------------------------------

              There are 3 digits on singles and 3 pairs, that would leave:

              10-3=7 digits not accounted for, so:

              For each pair 7 X 3 pairs = 21 combinations per draw.

              One would need a way of reducing those 7 digits to some fewer, that is of getting closer to the one next winning digit.

              -----------

              Next, for singles there are 6 permutations, the chances of getting the next one straight permutation to come are 1/6, one would need a way of getting closer to the one next straight winning permutation.

              ------------

              Because 21 X 10 = 210 or 21 X 8 = 168 combinations.

              168-80=$88 in the hole.

              ---------------

              So a person would need to study and then think ways of reducing the odds in order to come even or make a profit.

              -------------

              For example, there are 3 pairs, but which one or which two have the best chance of the 3 of being the next winning pair?

              --------------

              Logical prediction techniques based on stats, that is where it is at.

              You can intrepret the stats anyway you want, the median value for any pair repeating is 5 draws.  This means 50% of the time a pair in 5 draws will repeat and 50% of the time it will be 6 draws or further out.

              Jimmy

                CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                United States
                Member #4924
                June 3, 2004
                5912 Posts
                Online
                Posted: April 8, 2014, 12:35 pm - IP Logged

                You can intrepret the stats anyway you want, the median value for any pair repeating is 5 draws.  This means 50% of the time a pair in 5 draws will repeat and 50% of the time it will be 6 draws or further out.

                Jimmy

                JJ,

                I recall reading and I think it was in a post by Thoth. That any filter, has a 50/50 chance of repeating witin 5 draws. I'm trying to find the post.

                  BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                  Dump Water Florida
                  United States
                  Member #380
                  June 5, 2002
                  3104 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: April 8, 2014, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

                  JJ,

                  I recall reading and I think it was in a post by Thoth. That any filter, has a 50/50 chance of repeating witin 5 draws. I'm trying to find the post.


                  I believe the occurence of filter settings is dependent on their percentage within the population.

                  I do believe any box number drawn has a 50/50 chance of repeating within 15 draws. 

                  BobP

                    Avatar

                    United States
                    Member #132100
                    August 26, 2012
                    1078 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: April 9, 2014, 1:08 am - IP Logged

                    You can intrepret the stats anyway you want, the median value for any pair repeating is 5 draws.  This means 50% of the time a pair in 5 draws will repeat and 50% of the time it will be 6 draws or further out.

                    Jimmy

                    Beware, first check the game that you are thinking about playing, I just took a look at one game and on 40 past draws there were only 3 pairs repeats. study your game, some patterns might be more dependable than others.

                      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                      Park City, UT
                      United States
                      Member #69864
                      January 18, 2009
                      993 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: April 9, 2014, 2:07 am - IP Logged

                      Beware, first check the game that you are thinking about playing, I just took a look at one game and on 40 past draws there were only 3 pairs repeats. study your game, some patterns might be more dependable than others.

                      Not sure why you are addressing me I made no statement about pairs repeating in the next draw.  All I said is if you use a representative sample of say 1000 draws then the median value for a pair to repeat is 5 draws.

                      Jimmy

                        jackpotismine's avatar - kanji for_peace.jpg
                        Kunming
                        China
                        Member #57910
                        January 23, 2008
                        3626 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: April 9, 2014, 4:05 am - IP Logged

                        A long time ago I had posted a strategy like the OP. The difference was that when you get a double- digit number, you make pairs out the the draw before the double-digt. Usually the pairs fall within 5-6 draws. Here's what I mean.

                        Let's say:

                        225 falls and the draw before the double was

                        468 then you will use the 46,48,68 as your pair to play for the next 5-6 draws. Another thing to add is that when the pair does come out, it usually doesn't fall in the same order. In order words if the 46 pair falls, it will be x46 or x64 not 46x as the original fell. Check your state to see if it works in your state. GOOD LUCK!

                        Play to win!

                          Avatar

                          United States
                          Member #132100
                          August 26, 2012
                          1078 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: April 9, 2014, 7:09 am - IP Logged

                          Not sure why you are addressing me I made no statement about pairs repeating in the next draw.  All I said is if you use a representative sample of say 1000 draws then the median value for a pair to repeat is 5 draws.

                          Jimmy

                          Jimmy

                          I understand now, I thought that you was talking about pairs repeating on the very next draw.

                          -----------------

                          On 1 draw there are 3 pairs, so 3 X 5 = 15 pairs for 50% wins in the very long run of maybe 1000 draws.

                          -------------------

                          8 pick 3 numbers have 24 pairs or fewer.

                          So, 24 pairs and if no doubles fall maybe about from 80% to 100% chance (I don't remember for sure) of one of those pairs falling on the very next single draw.

                          Those are the 8 pick 3 numbers that thru the years have been posted and reposted here at LP from time to time, use the LP's search engine.

                          ---------------------

                          So I guess that in the very long run either way might be about the same.

                          ---------------------

                            Avatar

                            United States
                            Member #132100
                            August 26, 2012
                            1078 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: April 9, 2014, 7:12 am - IP Logged

                            A long time ago I had posted a strategy like the OP. The difference was that when you get a double- digit number, you make pairs out the the draw before the double-digt. Usually the pairs fall within 5-6 draws. Here's what I mean.

                            Let's say:

                            225 falls and the draw before the double was

                            468 then you will use the 46,48,68 as your pair to play for the next 5-6 draws. Another thing to add is that when the pair does come out, it usually doesn't fall in the same order. In order words if the 46 pair falls, it will be x46 or x64 not 46x as the original fell. Check your state to see if it works in your state. GOOD LUCK!

                            As you know, doubles are 3 ways numbers and singles are 6 ways numbers.