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So close, so far away

Topic closed. 6 replies. Last post 3 years ago by adobea78.

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Florida
United States
Member #135615
November 27, 2012
405 Posts
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Posted: April 11, 2014, 11:32 pm - IP Logged

So I’m currently testing out various patterns. They treat me better than predicting based on number stats. However, I seem to keep hitting the same wall. There are so many patterns that work well but I keep having trouble with covering the straight. Let me give an example. For no good reason other than it’s the code I currently have up, I’m using Florida’s numbers (Day and Eve) for 2010. Take a simple pattern like doubles. Here’s an example…

In 2010, the first double is on 1/2 Mid: 2-2-5

This easy pattern is to take the double “2” and the other number “5” and look for it to repeat. In this case, it hits on 1/5 Eve 5-1-2. To get a hit, I need to play the 2 and 5 and then cover the last position with all numbers. If I play that boxed, that will give me 10 sets. If I play it straight, that gives me 54 numbers. Either way, I’ll end up losing money. I coded this up so I could see exactly what’s going on. Here’s the breakdown:

In 2010, 214 doubles occur. If you use the above system and played for 5 days, you’d get 112 hits. If you played for 10 days, you would have gotten another 109 hits (211 total). 15 days would get you another 115 hits (324 total). It keeps going out from there, 20 days = 101, 25 = 97, 30 = 120, so on and so forth. So let’s just pick a stopping point for good measure so we can see what the cost/win amounts are. I’ll go with playing 5 days out. So when a double would hit, I’d play the double, the off number, and then 0-9.

The cost of playing boxed for 5 days would be 10 (draws = 5 days) * 10 (sets) * 214 (this is the number of times a double occurred and thus, how many times I would have had numbers to play) = $21,400. As for wins, in Florida, a 6-way win will get you $80. I would’ve had 112 hits using this pattern. So $80 * 112 = $8,960. I may have gotten some 3-way wins in there which pay out $160 but I’m going to go ahead and assume that wouldn’t have made up the difference.

The cost of playing straight for 5 days is where it gets interesting, or rather, possibly interesting. To cover a straight, one needs to play 54 numbers, because we don’t know the order/position they’re going to hit in. So doing the math 54 (sets we play) * 10 (draws = 5 days) * 214 (this is the number of times a double occurred and thus, how many times I would have had numbers to play) = $57,780 (cost to play). Straight winnings would be $500 (what we get in Florida for a straight) * 112 (number of hits the pattern would’ve made) = $56,000. Still a loss… Keep in mind that some years perform better than others so doing anything to tilt the scale toward the net positive may have worked for 2010 but not another year.

To make this actually work, there are two options that I can think of. One could either find a way to put the sets in order (this way, we’d play 10 sets at a time instead of 54) or not play the full ten numbers as the last position (if we knew which number to play in the last position, we could cover it for a straight and only need to play 6 sets). I haven’t found a way to do either in a way that works enough to give me a profit worth playing for.

If anyone is still reading this little novel, I’d love to hear any ideas on how to find the last position and/or ordering the positions. Either way will result in a system that is profitable.


    United States
    Member #128790
    June 2, 2012
    5431 Posts
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    Posted: April 11, 2014, 11:47 pm - IP Logged

    So I’m currently testing out various patterns. They treat me better than predicting based on number stats. However, I seem to keep hitting the same wall. There are so many patterns that work well but I keep having trouble with covering the straight. Let me give an example. For no good reason other than it’s the code I currently have up, I’m using Florida’s numbers (Day and Eve) for 2010. Take a simple pattern like doubles. Here’s an example…

    In 2010, the first double is on 1/2 Mid: 2-2-5

    This easy pattern is to take the double “2” and the other number “5” and look for it to repeat. In this case, it hits on 1/5 Eve 5-1-2. To get a hit, I need to play the 2 and 5 and then cover the last position with all numbers. If I play that boxed, that will give me 10 sets. If I play it straight, that gives me 54 numbers. Either way, I’ll end up losing money. I coded this up so I could see exactly what’s going on. Here’s the breakdown:

    In 2010, 214 doubles occur. If you use the above system and played for 5 days, you’d get 112 hits. If you played for 10 days, you would have gotten another 109 hits (211 total). 15 days would get you another 115 hits (324 total). It keeps going out from there, 20 days = 101, 25 = 97, 30 = 120, so on and so forth. So let’s just pick a stopping point for good measure so we can see what the cost/win amounts are. I’ll go with playing 5 days out. So when a double would hit, I’d play the double, the off number, and then 0-9.

    The cost of playing boxed for 5 days would be 10 (draws = 5 days) * 10 (sets) * 214 (this is the number of times a double occurred and thus, how many times I would have had numbers to play) = $21,400. As for wins, in Florida, a 6-way win will get you $80. I would’ve had 112 hits using this pattern. So $80 * 112 = $8,960. I may have gotten some 3-way wins in there which pay out $160 but I’m going to go ahead and assume that wouldn’t have made up the difference.

    The cost of playing straight for 5 days is where it gets interesting, or rather, possibly interesting. To cover a straight, one needs to play 54 numbers, because we don’t know the order/position they’re going to hit in. So doing the math 54 (sets we play) * 10 (draws = 5 days) * 214 (this is the number of times a double occurred and thus, how many times I would have had numbers to play) = $57,780 (cost to play). Straight winnings would be $500 (what we get in Florida for a straight) * 112 (number of hits the pattern would’ve made) = $56,000. Still a loss… Keep in mind that some years perform better than others so doing anything to tilt the scale toward the net positive may have worked for 2010 but not another year.

    To make this actually work, there are two options that I can think of. One could either find a way to put the sets in order (this way, we’d play 10 sets at a time instead of 54) or not play the full ten numbers as the last position (if we knew which number to play in the last position, we could cover it for a straight and only need to play 6 sets). I haven’t found a way to do either in a way that works enough to give me a profit worth playing for.

    If anyone is still reading this little novel, I’d love to hear any ideas on how to find the last position and/or ordering the positions. Either way will result in a system that is profitable.

    I don't get it, can you do Florida?

    Green laugh

      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
      Park City, UT
      United States
      Member #69864
      January 18, 2009
      993 Posts
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      Posted: April 11, 2014, 11:55 pm - IP Logged

      So I’m currently testing out various patterns. They treat me better than predicting based on number stats. However, I seem to keep hitting the same wall. There are so many patterns that work well but I keep having trouble with covering the straight. Let me give an example. For no good reason other than it’s the code I currently have up, I’m using Florida’s numbers (Day and Eve) for 2010. Take a simple pattern like doubles. Here’s an example…

      In 2010, the first double is on 1/2 Mid: 2-2-5

      This easy pattern is to take the double “2” and the other number “5” and look for it to repeat. In this case, it hits on 1/5 Eve 5-1-2. To get a hit, I need to play the 2 and 5 and then cover the last position with all numbers. If I play that boxed, that will give me 10 sets. If I play it straight, that gives me 54 numbers. Either way, I’ll end up losing money. I coded this up so I could see exactly what’s going on. Here’s the breakdown:

      In 2010, 214 doubles occur. If you use the above system and played for 5 days, you’d get 112 hits. If you played for 10 days, you would have gotten another 109 hits (211 total). 15 days would get you another 115 hits (324 total). It keeps going out from there, 20 days = 101, 25 = 97, 30 = 120, so on and so forth. So let’s just pick a stopping point for good measure so we can see what the cost/win amounts are. I’ll go with playing 5 days out. So when a double would hit, I’d play the double, the off number, and then 0-9.

      The cost of playing boxed for 5 days would be 10 (draws = 5 days) * 10 (sets) * 214 (this is the number of times a double occurred and thus, how many times I would have had numbers to play) = $21,400. As for wins, in Florida, a 6-way win will get you $80. I would’ve had 112 hits using this pattern. So $80 * 112 = $8,960. I may have gotten some 3-way wins in there which pay out $160 but I’m going to go ahead and assume that wouldn’t have made up the difference.

      The cost of playing straight for 5 days is where it gets interesting, or rather, possibly interesting. To cover a straight, one needs to play 54 numbers, because we don’t know the order/position they’re going to hit in. So doing the math 54 (sets we play) * 10 (draws = 5 days) * 214 (this is the number of times a double occurred and thus, how many times I would have had numbers to play) = $57,780 (cost to play). Straight winnings would be $500 (what we get in Florida for a straight) * 112 (number of hits the pattern would’ve made) = $56,000. Still a loss… Keep in mind that some years perform better than others so doing anything to tilt the scale toward the net positive may have worked for 2010 but not another year.

      To make this actually work, there are two options that I can think of. One could either find a way to put the sets in order (this way, we’d play 10 sets at a time instead of 54) or not play the full ten numbers as the last position (if we knew which number to play in the last position, we could cover it for a straight and only need to play 6 sets). I haven’t found a way to do either in a way that works enough to give me a profit worth playing for.

      If anyone is still reading this little novel, I’d love to hear any ideas on how to find the last position and/or ordering the positions. Either way will result in a system that is profitable.

      The best option would be to play online where the house edge is only 10% versus 50%.

      The median value for a 1 number from a draw to to repeat by position is 2 draws.

      The median value for 2 numbers from a draw to repeat by position is 6 draws.

      The median value to have all 3 numbers from a draw to repeat by position is 15 draws.

      So you might be able to use that information to eliminate some of the 54 combinations to play.

      Jimmy

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        United States
        Member #154220
        April 8, 2014
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        Posted: April 12, 2014, 3:12 am - IP Logged

        Here's what I did to limit the plays and maximize profits.
        When testing th theory ( on a spreedsheet) I mad note of how the winners laid out.

        example: using your 2-2-5 

        In this example the 2 is the A column , 2 is the B col, 5 is the C 
        you shoud look for the "hit", lets say the hit was 5- 2 - 9
        I would show this hit as CAx

        a hit of  7-2- 5 would be xAC or xBC, a hit of  5 9 2 would be CxA

        then count the hits. In my case (TEXAS) I found that limiting my plays to  AC*  and CA* (using my trigger "system") had close to a 40% Hit rate.

        so when a play is triggered I play those 20 tickets. Play 10 games, the first five games for 25 cents (on line) games 6-10 for 50 cents

        If you need to play (and lose) all 10 games at 20 tickets per game using the 25 cent and 50 cent amounts, the total loss is $75.

        25 cents straight produces a $225 win, while 50 cents pays $450.

        Max consecutive losses is 4 (in my case)  Do the math and you should find a nice profit.

        BTW, I also have a 2nd trigger system that I Box AC* (ten tickets)for $1 & then $2  and play only 7 games (on line box pay out is $150 & $300)

        Also look at your hit % and if high enough you can double your bet after a loss and keep it at that $ amount until you hit.

        Good Luck

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          Florida
          United States
          Member #135615
          November 27, 2012
          405 Posts
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          Posted: April 18, 2014, 6:54 pm - IP Logged

          Jim, I'm afraid I didn't understand your suggestion.

           

          Ron, I wrote a script that would tell me the order of hits. Depending on the date range, there was typically a clear winner (one order occurring more than the other). However, I didn't see a way for that to help me put the numbers in order. There are 6 order possibilities, so using that data, I could remove the order that's occurring the most and least. That still leaves me 4 possibilities. So 9*4 = 36. 36 sets per play to cover all. Or just the 9 and pick one and hope that's it. If I could get the pick right half the time, I could make money. I just don't think my luck is that good.

          So since the $500 win seemed to be something I could change. I tried Pick 4. I tried a pattern out. It's hitting well but producing 24 numbers for a box hit. Again, I don't know what order to put them in. The testing is a lot slower becaus I'm using an Excel sheet. I don't have Pick 4 data in my database... So trying to cover 24 numbers for Pick four would eat away at the profits just like with Pick 3. Trying to get luckly and hope I chose the right order doesn't sound very profitiable... Maybe I should go to a 5 number system. Order doesn't matter and you still get something on a miss...

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            Florida
            United States
            Member #135615
            November 27, 2012
            405 Posts
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            Posted: April 18, 2014, 7:04 pm - IP Logged

            For example, here's a sample for the pattern I'm currently working with. This is for P4, FL.

             

            9441
            9444
            9446
            9411
            9414
            9416
            9451
            9454
            9456
            9461
            9464
            9466
            9741
            9744
            9746
            9711
            9714
            9716
            9751
            9754
            9756
            9761
            9764
            9766

            Hits are good but I need to either figure out how to make sure that's a straight. To do that, these sets need to be further reduced or I need a way to order the positions. It doesn't have to be 100%, just enough for a profit.

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              United States
              Member #116344
              September 8, 2011
              3926 Posts
              Online
              Posted: April 18, 2014, 8:28 pm - IP Logged

              For example, here's a sample for the pattern I'm currently working with. This is for P4, FL.

               

              9441
              9444
              9446
              9411
              9414
              9416
              9451
              9454
              9456
              9461
              9464
              9466
              9741
              9744
              9746
              9711
              9714
              9716
              9751
              9754
              9756
              9761
              9764
              9766

              Hits are good but I need to either figure out how to make sure that's a straight. To do that, these sets need to be further reduced or I need a way to order the positions. It doesn't have to be 100%, just enough for a profit.

              Try 24 positional triads, eg 1234  set will be four combo 123,124,134,234, each combo will permutate to 6 positional triads 123, 132, 213, 231, 321, 312, your x could be the most frq digits  of last combined draws, from  the test, 9456  appears  to be the trend.  A repeating combo triads permutates 3 positional triads(for doubles),eg 944  will be two combos 994,944 for 6 positional triads 994,949,499,944,494,449, the bottom line  is  turn the patterns into positional triads.