Happyland United States Member #146344 September 1, 2013 1129 Posts Offline

Posted: July 21, 2014, 2:26 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by febausa on July 21, 2014

anyone know the practical utility of the binomial distribution or other distribution in the lottery?

anyone know the practical utility of the binomial distribution or other distribution in the prediction numbers lottery?

Yes, it is useful for debunking common lottery myths and systems.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

Coral Springs United States Member #153341 March 13, 2014 19 Posts Offline

Posted: July 21, 2014, 4:22 pm - IP Logged

There are many offers on software that use binomial distribution and other distribution statistics. But I found nothing that could help me to predict the lottery numbers.

miami, fl United States Member #155028 May 6, 2014 234 Posts Offline

Posted: July 21, 2014, 4:45 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by febausa on July 21, 2014

There are many offers on software that use binomial distribution and other distribution statistics. But I found nothing that could help me to predict the lottery numbers.

Some of the members here on LP think that they can predict the lottery. They post 100 numbers for each game and when one finally hit, they become self proclaimed experts.

Texas United States Member #150797 December 31, 2013 815 Posts Offline

Posted: July 22, 2014, 7:36 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by febausa on July 21, 2014

anyone know the practical utility of the binomial distribution or other distribution in the lottery?

anyone know the practical utility of the binomial distribution or other distribution in the prediction numbers lottery?

First, you probably should have asked this question over on the Math board.

Personally, I view the distribution as one of the most important pieces of information we have in playing lotto.

Just as an example, lets look at Pick 3 Doubles. We know they come along about every 4 draws, but that single average statistic is not that useful when a double hits immediately after another double, or doubles go missing for a week or more.

The distribution of the skip of doubles looks like this:

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

27%

19%

13%

15%

9%

5%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

1%

The blue row at top gives the skip count (0=the hit of doubles, 1=1 game skipped since a double, etc).

So we can see from the above that the single most likely time for a double to hit is after it skips zero games, in other words, doubles are most likely to hit immediately after another double, with 27% of hits coming in those circumstances. So, if you haven't had back-to-back doubles for a while, you might want to play them.

You can also see that just under 50 percent of hits come immediately after another double, or one game after another double. 75% of your doubles will come by skip 3, and 95% of streaks will finish by skip 9 or sooner. In my data base, no double skipped more that 14 games before hitting again -- but that doesn't mean it can't happen, just hasn't so far in my data.

So this information helps you answer the question "What are the odds?" If you are looking at your game stats and you see that your last double hit one game ago this distribution tells you that the odds are about 50-50 for another (47-53, actually). If you haven't had a double for 6 games the odds are 90-10 in favor of a double hit.

Anyway, hope this is helpful.

"There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

ORLANDO, FLORIDA United States Member #4924 June 3, 2004 5894 Posts Offline

Posted: July 22, 2014, 8:26 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Tialuvslotto on July 22, 2014

First, you probably should have asked this question over on the Math board.

Personally, I view the distribution as one of the most important pieces of information we have in playing lotto.

Just as an example, lets look at Pick 3 Doubles. We know they come along about every 4 draws, but that single average statistic is not that useful when a double hits immediately after another double, or doubles go missing for a week or more.

The distribution of the skip of doubles looks like this:

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

27%

19%

13%

15%

9%

5%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

1%

The blue row at top gives the skip count (0=the hit of doubles, 1=1 game skipped since a double, etc).

So we can see from the above that the single most likely time for a double to hit is after it skips zero games, in other words, doubles are most likely to hit immediately after another double, with 27% of hits coming in those circumstances. So, if you haven't had back-to-back doubles for a while, you might want to play them.

You can also see that just under 50 percent of hits come immediately after another double, or one game after another double. 75% of your doubles will come by skip 3, and 95% of streaks will finish by skip 9 or sooner. In my data base, no double skipped more that 14 games before hitting again -- but that doesn't mean it can't happen, just hasn't so far in my data.

So this information helps you answer the question "What are the odds?" If you are looking at your game stats and you see that your last double hit one game ago this distribution tells you that the odds are about 50-50 for another (47-53, actually). If you haven't had a double for 6 games the odds are 90-10 in favor of a double hit.

Anyway, hope this is helpful.

These are the type of facts we need, thank you!!! Please, give an example for singles.

Texas United States Member #55889 October 23, 2007 5592 Posts Offline

Posted: July 22, 2014, 8:42 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Tialuvslotto on July 22, 2014

First, you probably should have asked this question over on the Math board.

Personally, I view the distribution as one of the most important pieces of information we have in playing lotto.

Just as an example, lets look at Pick 3 Doubles. We know they come along about every 4 draws, but that single average statistic is not that useful when a double hits immediately after another double, or doubles go missing for a week or more.

The distribution of the skip of doubles looks like this:

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

27%

19%

13%

15%

9%

5%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

1%

The blue row at top gives the skip count (0=the hit of doubles, 1=1 game skipped since a double, etc).

So we can see from the above that the single most likely time for a double to hit is after it skips zero games, in other words, doubles are most likely to hit immediately after another double, with 27% of hits coming in those circumstances. So, if you haven't had back-to-back doubles for a while, you might want to play them.

You can also see that just under 50 percent of hits come immediately after another double, or one game after another double. 75% of your doubles will come by skip 3, and 95% of streaks will finish by skip 9 or sooner. In my data base, no double skipped more that 14 games before hitting again -- but that doesn't mean it can't happen, just hasn't so far in my data.

So this information helps you answer the question "What are the odds?" If you are looking at your game stats and you see that your last double hit one game ago this distribution tells you that the odds are about 50-50 for another (47-53, actually). If you haven't had a double for 6 games the odds are 90-10 in favor of a double hit.

Texas United States Member #150797 December 31, 2013 815 Posts Offline

Posted: July 22, 2014, 9:03 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by CARBOB on July 22, 2014

These are the type of facts we need, thank you!!! Please, give an example for singles.

Thanks, Carbob!

Not quite sure what you mean by "singles"? This isn't a very interesting distribution since they hit all the time, only skipping one or two draws once in a while.

However, I will include a handy "do it yourself kit" for figuring out where in the distribution a value lies.

First, set up a table in excel to record your statistic (repeats, doubles, etc., what ever you want). You want to set up an IF statement which assigns a value of "0" to a hit and adds one to every non-hit value, until the next hit. So you will end up with a column of numbers like this"

0

1

2

3

0

1

2

0

Say we put this data in column A, rows 5 through 100. Then, copy and paste the current value (0 in my example, since I put newest at the bottom) into column A2

Then, at the top of the column in cell A1 enter this formula: =1-COUNTIF(A5:A100,">" & A2)/COUNTIF(A5:A100) -- note that there is a space both before and after the &.

This formula will calculate the inverse of the percentile for the distribution in cells A5:100, in other words it tells you in what percentile of the distribution your value falls.

For example, I have this setup to alert me to when one of WIN D's 120 Quadrants is coming due:

8

1

6

2

85%

31%

76%

43%

120 Quadrants

A

B

C

D

So the top row is the current skip, and the row below gives the point in the distribution which each quadrant is currently occupying. You can see, that Quadrant A is longest out at skip 8, which puts it in the 85th percentile of its distribution.

"There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

ORLANDO, FLORIDA United States Member #4924 June 3, 2004 5894 Posts Offline

Posted: July 23, 2014, 3:12 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Tialuvslotto on July 22, 2014

Thanks, Carbob!

Not quite sure what you mean by "singles"? This isn't a very interesting distribution since they hit all the time, only skipping one or two draws once in a while.

However, I will include a handy "do it yourself kit" for figuring out where in the distribution a value lies.

First, set up a table in excel to record your statistic (repeats, doubles, etc., what ever you want). You want to set up an IF statement which assigns a value of "0" to a hit and adds one to every non-hit value, until the next hit. So you will end up with a column of numbers like this"

0

1

2

3

0

1

2

0

Say we put this data in column A, rows 5 through 100. Then, copy and paste the current value (0 in my example, since I put newest at the bottom) into column A2

Then, at the top of the column in cell A1 enter this formula: =1-COUNTIF(A5:A100,">" & A2)/COUNTIF(A5:A100) -- note that there is a space both before and after the &.

This formula will calculate the inverse of the percentile for the distribution in cells A5:100, in other words it tells you in what percentile of the distribution your value falls.

For example, I have this setup to alert me to when one of WIN D's 120 Quadrants is coming due:

8

1

6

2

85%

31%

76%

43%

120 Quadrants

A

B

C

D

So the top row is the current skip, and the row below gives the point in the distribution which each quadrant is currently occupying. You can see, that Quadrant A is longest out at skip 8, which puts it in the 85th percentile of its distribution.