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Weekly Daily Fantasy Football Thread

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 2 years ago by qutgnt.

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United States
Member #3676
February 10, 2004
425 Posts
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Posted: September 5, 2014, 11:26 am - IP Logged

I figured it would be cool to do a weekly post about fantasy football.  Just a quick background on myself. I have worked in the financial industry in Chicago for a while. I love the math behind trading, gambling, lottery, horses etc. I have done very well over time winning money playing in yearly fantasy leagues. You know leagues with friends, big money leagues with random etc.  I recently got involved playing Daily Fantasy sports. This means you play in real money leagues that run either over the course of a day with baseball, basketball, hockey, or golf, or over the course of a weekend with college football and NFL. These leagues are legal and there are a couple big sites like Fanduel and Draftkings where people have won hundreds of thousands of dollars. There is skill involved in it along with a lot of luck. The reason I love to play it is the math. When I play the lottery I ONLY play when I have a positive EV. I live in Illinois so when the Little Lotto is over 800k I play. (400k used to be my threshold before they changed matrix) I am not interested in playing games such as pick 3 that pays out 50% or pick four which after taxes pays out about 35 cents on the dollar. These games cannot be beat in the long run. Sure anyone can get lucky. But I would rather get lucky when the odds are in my favor

Now the reason I love the daily fantasy football leagues is because the math and the skill can make you a winning player pretty easily. First of all most guarenteed leagues payout about 90+%. Most lotteries just pay out 50%. There is also something called overlay. This means say the league has 100 people in it. Only 80 might play. The company MUST still play the league. This causes the sites to lose money in these leagues. This is where you have a strong EV. For strong players who overlay hunt you can be a big long term winner. These tournaments pay out over 100%! Who doesn't love that!

 

I will put together a fantasy team on Draft Kings today or tomorrow and we will see how it does. If anyone ever needed help putting together a lineup I can help for sure. Feel free to contribute any insights you have as well if you like sports.


    United States
    Member #3676
    February 10, 2004
    425 Posts
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    Posted: September 7, 2014, 10:14 am - IP Logged

    I hope everyone is having a great Sunday. I was lucky enough to be at the Notre Dame Michigan game last night. The last game for now is a great rivalry. The sun was out during tailgaiting and then it got cool and crisp as Notre Dame took Michigan to the wood shed 31-0. As stated above I am a huge Fantasy Football player who enjoys playing the daily and weekly fantasy sports. There is money to be made for all the reasons I stated in my first post. Here is my main lineup for Week 1 of the NFL. The salaries are based on draft kings. I will be entering this the $27 dollar entry contest that pays out $100,000 to first place and that will pay out a total of $500,000. If you need help creating a lineup feel free to let me know. Here we go!

     

    QB Colin Kaepernick, salary $8,000. He is the 8th most expensive qb. The 49ers are the favorite versus Dallas where the over/under is 51, the third highest of the week. Point will be scored here. The Dallas defense is awful. Kap is of great value here because he should easily be able to rush for 50 yards as well which is huge in fantasy sports. I would expect 2-3 tds passing and about 250 yards as well. Instead of paying a big salary for Brees or Manning I will try to go a little deeper to get value.

    RB 1 CJ Spiller. $6200 salary. Again I am looking for value. On a nice track in Chicago Spiller will get the ball in space. Need him to break a long run or catch a long pass out of backfield. Point per reception is huge. I expect this game with an over under of 48 to be high scoring. Buffalo though with EJ Manuel will have to be creative to beat an below average Chicago D. Getting Spiller their best playmaker is the way to go.

    RB2 Joique Bell. $5,500 salary. Who is Bell you ask? He will be the main man in the Detroit backfield as time goes on. Detroit likes to throw the ball and he will have 5-6 catches for sure with I would guess 8-10 rushes. He has big play ability. I would rather pay $5500 for him than $6500 for Reggie Bush. Game has a nice over under of 47 to it meaning points will be scored.

    WR1 TY Hilton.$5,500 The Broncos Colts game has highest over under of week with 55, so oddsmakers expect a shootout. I am not sure Reggie Wayne the Colts #1 wr is what he used to be. TY Hilton has the ability to stretch the field at Mile High. I expect a monster game from him today at a great value salary.

    WR2 Marques Colston$5,900 salary. Again I am picking a player from a game with a high over under. That is the SMART WAY to go about things in constructing a lineup. The Saints Falcons game has an over under of 52 which is high. Saints will be without one of their other WR's and I expect 12 targets for Colston and hopefully 8-10 catches with at least a TD.

    WR3 Emmanuel Sanders $4,800 salary. I was going to take Shorts the WR from Jacksonville in this game as a sneaky pic in a game Jax would play from behind to get garbage yards but he is out. Sanders at this salary is the second choice. Again playing in a shootout game with no Wes Welker he will get some good looks from Manning

    TE Ladarius Green, $3,200 salary. When constructing a team you sometimes have to take a punt or a flier to fit all the players under the salary cap. Green has tremendous upside and is a stud. He has an again Antonio Gates in the way of some playing time but he is a red zone beast and I would expect a TD vs Arizona.

    Flex Julio Jones $7,700. He might as well be my WR1. He will have a monster game vs the Saints in a game again with a high over under. You see when I construct a line up I first look for value plays and plug them in. Then I see what I have left to spend on the studs. Julio Jones is exactly what I want.

    DST Tampa Bay $3100. Lovie Smith is back as a coach and while I view him to be a below average coach he is a very good defensive mind. With Cam Newton not expected to play I think Tampa feasts on Derek Andersen. Again a great value pick at a great price.

     

    Good luck to everyone. There are other contests I might join with variations of lineups but this is my main lineup I will enter is the $27 contest going for the top prize of $100,000. If you have questions about how I did my lineup of about fantasy sports let me know. Everyone have a GREAT DAY!

     

    Chris


      United States
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      February 10, 2004
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      Posted: September 7, 2014, 2:34 pm - IP Logged

      Wow, the $500,000 guarenteed prize pool only had $423,000 in entries in it. This means there was a massive overlay. It truly is like playing a lottery where the payback percentage is 115+%! Doesn't always happen but when it does it is smart to play. Hopefully I can get some TD's from my players and place in the money. Will let you know how it goes. If you have questions on how daily fantasy works and why mathematically it is a great wager feel free to reach out.

       

      Chris


        United States
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        February 10, 2004
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        Posted: September 8, 2014, 12:01 pm - IP Logged

        So it was a great Sunday of NFL. My team was an average team. Got hurt by my QB who was staked to a huge lead in first half and didn't need to throw the ball in second half vs Cowboys. Missed out on a couple TD's from Jones and Colston as well. I got two players left to go tonight and have an outside of playing and earning some money but no shot at the big prizes.

        I will keep at it again next week.

        By the way they just announced that the first week of October they will have a contest that cost $27 to enter that will earn the winner $1,000,000. 2.2 million in overall prizes. Roughly 90000 entries will be allowed. Sort of like playing a lottery that will payback at least 90% and might even pay back more if there is an overlay as there was in week 1. There probably will be. I like playing lotteries where the payback is over 100%!!

        If you have questions about that let me know, if you need help putting together a line up let me know. It will be my best shot at hitting a million so I am sure I will have 100 or so tickets in it!

         

        Chris


          United States
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          Posted: September 10, 2014, 11:06 am - IP Logged

          This week is here. Wednesday means in your year long fantasy football game waivers have passed. This is where you pick up the players who will step in for the injured ones. Some of these players will offer tremendous value on the daily fantasy websites. So we will spend a lot of time the next couple days going over our spreadsheets and seeing where the value is in picking up a couple of those for our lineup.

           

          This week we will focus on Draft Kings. They have  a game that costs $27 to enter. It will have a million dollar prize pool and $100,000 goes to the winner. 42,000 entries will be the max. As we saw last week the game did not fill but it is MANDATORY that the site pay out the prize pool they offer. That is the BEAUTY of playing daily fantasy sports in games where there are overlay. The true payback percentage can be OVER 100%. We shall see if it fills this week. Even if it does the payback percentage is close to 90% and that makes it way more beatable than your typical lottery game that just pays back 50%.

           

          I will get to work and post my lineup this week. If you need help creating a lineup feel free to let me know. I want my piece of a million this week. I am sure I will have multiple entries but I will post my best lineup this weekend. A few weeks from now the site will be offering the same contest but the top prize will get $1,000,000!. It will be so huge I doubt it will fill. I am shooting to have 50 entries in that.

          I view it to be someone's BEST SHOT at winning $1,000,000 so I plan on crushing it!


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            Posted: September 14, 2014, 1:10 pm - IP Logged

            Late to post this sorry. Wow so in the $1,000,000 guaranteed payout on Draft Kings only $864,000 in entry fees were taken in! This is massive overlay. The payback percentage on this is over 115%. What lottery pays that back! This means the company will have to front the whole prize fund of a million only taking in $864k.  That is the type of lottery astute lotto players pounce on. I have a few entries in this one. Here though is my best lineup

             

            QB Nick Foles

            RB Jamal Charles

            RB Asista on Vikings was the cheapest salary will hopefully play a lot as Peterson the child abuser is out.

            WR Julio Jones

            WR Hunter

            WR Edelman

            TE Ertz

            Flex Decker

            Defense Tampa Bay.

             

            Not a lot of time for a write up but will do a recap after. If you have any questions on how to put a lineup together or why playing a game with a payback of 115% is smart then feel free to let me know. Your typical lottery pays back 50%. No brainer what I would prefer to play and why I only play the Lucky Day Lotto when it has a payback percentage where it has carried over often of 100+%

             

            Chris


              United States
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              Posted: September 18, 2014, 3:24 pm - IP Logged

              Last week was an average score type of week with this lineup. All in all though it was positive for me as I had five different lineups in play.

              I played 4 entries in the $27 contest and 1 in the $200 contest. That is $302 in cost.

              Overall I won $800. So even though my top team did not cash it was profitable.

              This week we are going to go back to playing the fantasy million. $27 entry fee top prize wins $100,000.

              42,000 entries will be in it. One million will be paid out. The past two weeks there has been massive overlay

              in these pools meaning the payback percentage was well over 100%. For those that are smart about playing

              lotteries you should realize you are way better off playing a game that pays you back close to 100% as possible

              or even more than that (although tough to find but exactly why I love daily fantasy )

              I will start to put my top lineup together and post it soon. If you need help putting together a lineup let me know.

              This in my eyes is truly the best way to hit a life changing score. It is NOT all luck. There is some skill involved and that is what

              separates the winners and losers.

              The first weekend of October they will have a contest where someone will win 1 million bucks. About 90000 entries at $27 a pop.

              NO SCRATCH OFF can offer those odds! Hopefully myself or one of you will hit it!  Be back in a couple days!


                United States
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                Posted: September 20, 2014, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

                So here we go again. Week three in the league where they play for pay!

                I will be entering multiple teams in the Sunday million contest. A $27 entry fee with a prize pool of $1,000,000.

                As of now only 15k out of 42k entries are filled. This means we are probably looking at more OVERLAY which means

                the payout percentage might be north of 100%. Again you cannot find this with any other lottery. This is a game of skill

                and that also for knowledgable players increases the payback % as well. Top prize Sunday wins $100k! If you need

                help putting a line up together let me know. Here is the best one that I will be playing.

                QB. Matthew Stafford Lions. In a game projected to be a shootout I expect him to throw the ball 50 times. The highest over under on board means this is a smart play.

                RB Knile Davis.  KC He is the backup to Jamal Charles who is not expected to play Sunday. He is almost just as good, with a reduced salary. In a PPR (point per reception league) I would expect him to get five or so catches which he can bust at any time.

                RB Zac Stacy. Rams. The cowboys defense is awful. The Rams have an awful backup QB. This means STL will run the ball a ton. Great value here, I expect one if not two touchdowns as well.

                WR Demaryius Thomas. Denver. He has had an awful two weeks so far but he is by far and wide the best wr on denver and is due for a monster game at a decreased price.

                WR Keenan Allen. SD. Stud WR on San Diego. With running back out expect Rivers to throw ball more and I expect Allen to get open vertically this game.

                WR Greg Jennings Vikings. The Vikes are going to play behind all game. New Orleans secondary is not very good. Great value salary pick.

                TE Zach Ertz Eagles. He is on the uptrend averaging over 20 yards per catch. He will find the end zone this weekend.

                Flex. Khiry Robinson. Saints. With Mark Ingram out he will get bulk of carries. He also will get the red zone tries and catch some balls.

                Def. Patriots. Playing the Raiders at home, enough said. Expect 4 sacks, many turnovers and probably a touchdown.

                  gailharris68's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg

                  United States
                  Member #147719
                  October 10, 2013
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                  Posted: September 20, 2014, 4:12 pm - IP Logged

                  So here we go again. Week three in the league where they play for pay!

                  I will be entering multiple teams in the Sunday million contest. A $27 entry fee with a prize pool of $1,000,000.

                  As of now only 15k out of 42k entries are filled. This means we are probably looking at more OVERLAY which means

                  the payout percentage might be north of 100%. Again you cannot find this with any other lottery. This is a game of skill

                  and that also for knowledgable players increases the payback % as well. Top prize Sunday wins $100k! If you need

                  help putting a line up together let me know. Here is the best one that I will be playing.

                  QB. Matthew Stafford Lions. In a game projected to be a shootout I expect him to throw the ball 50 times. The highest over under on board means this is a smart play.

                  RB Knile Davis.  KC He is the backup to Jamal Charles who is not expected to play Sunday. He is almost just as good, with a reduced salary. In a PPR (point per reception league) I would expect him to get five or so catches which he can bust at any time.

                  RB Zac Stacy. Rams. The cowboys defense is awful. The Rams have an awful backup QB. This means STL will run the ball a ton. Great value here, I expect one if not two touchdowns as well.

                  WR Demaryius Thomas. Denver. He has had an awful two weeks so far but he is by far and wide the best wr on denver and is due for a monster game at a decreased price.

                  WR Keenan Allen. SD. Stud WR on San Diego. With running back out expect Rivers to throw ball more and I expect Allen to get open vertically this game.

                  WR Greg Jennings Vikings. The Vikes are going to play behind all game. New Orleans secondary is not very good. Great value salary pick.

                  TE Zach Ertz Eagles. He is on the uptrend averaging over 20 yards per catch. He will find the end zone this weekend.

                  Flex. Khiry Robinson. Saints. With Mark Ingram out he will get bulk of carries. He also will get the red zone tries and catch some balls.

                  Def. Patriots. Playing the Raiders at home, enough said. Expect 4 sacks, many turnovers and probably a touchdown.

                  I am super excited that I found your Thread.  I play Fantasy Football on Fanduel.  I win but usually only a couple dollars because I take a top QB and WR then run out of money for the rest of my roster.  You've given me a new way to look at it.  Good Luck tomorrow!

                  If you always do what you've always done, then you'll always get what you always have gotten.  Change your thoughts, Change your life.


                    United States
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                    February 10, 2004
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                    Posted: September 25, 2014, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

                    I am SUPER EXCITED. They have just opened up the MILLIONAIRE MAKER game that goes off next Sunday October 5th.  The entry fee is just $27. There will be 92,400 entries. The top prize is $1,000,000!  Truly your best odds of winning a million dollars. Not lottery can offer that. Also if the past few weeks is a good gauge this contest will probably overlay. That means the contest might pay out more money than they take in. Payback percentage that can be over 100%. My friends that is a lottery you MUST play.  This contest will have a total of at 2.2 million in prizes.  15,500 places will be paid a prize

                    If you have questions about how to field or put together a team let me know. Some players will have tens of entries. I plan on having 20 or so as I love to get my money in the best spots. You can reserves entry for this millionaire maker contest next weekend now. This Sunday though is another SUNDAY MILLION contest. First prize is $100,000. Again this contest the past three weeks have overlayed. Meaning they are paying out MORE that they take in.

                    Here is a preliminary team I plan on putting together for this week.. The smart way to do it is to take the games that have the highest over under and pick qbs and wrs from them. Then take some of the lower total games and pick the rbs as those will be games where they run more in theory.

                     

                    QB Tony Romo. He plays the Saints. It is the highest over under of week with 53. Brees is a lot more expensive to roster so Romo has the best value. 300 yd game plus 3 tds is what I am looking for.

                    WR Dez Bryant I will stack the Cowboys. That means I will tie in their best wr to get a double whammy ( good thing) when romo throws TD.

                    WR Brandin Cooks Saints. Again I expect a high scoring game. He has home run potential to him. Good value.

                    WR Davante Adam Packers. This game has another high total of 50. He is the WR third WR now and has home run potential as a rookie. You cannot always roster studs as the salary cap stops that so you go to reach sometimes for the value.

                    RB Lesean Mccoy Eagles. Here is a stud RB. The 49ers Defense is not like it was last year. McCoy will get a lot of passes as well. Since it is a PPR league or point per reception league I expect him to get in space vs the faltering 49ers D.

                    RB Shane Vereen. Patriots. The Pats O is struggling. I expect it to get somewhat on track this week. The problem is Brady has no great WRs. He will throw the ball a lot out of backfield. Again PPR Vereen should be solid.  Great value.

                    TE Gronkowski Patriots. He is finally close to 100% healed from knee issues. I would expect him to catch at least one TD Monday night. He is pretty cheap for his potential.

                    Flex. Lamar Miller. Dolphins. He is playing the Raiders. There is a low over under. I expect him to get 25+ carries. Expect at least a TD. Great value.

                     

                    So to recap this Sunday we have the Sunday Million contest I plan on fielding a few teams in. I will even quick pick a few. The top prize in the $27 contest is $100,000.

                    Next Sunday though is the big daddy! The winner will come home with a Million. Truly your best shot at winning a million. Forget about your states lottery raffle or scratch offs that pay back at best 75%. This is where smart gamblers and astute lottery players want to get their money in.  If you have questions or need help putting together a team or just want to enter a team and would like me to pick a team for you I am happy to help!

                     

                    Chris


                      United States
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                      February 10, 2004
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                      Posted: September 28, 2014, 12:05 am - IP Logged

                      So as of right now only 13 hours before kickoff the Sunday Millions contest where the grand prize is $100,000 is not even halfway filled. This means we again are looking at probabe overlay. For the cost of $27 you have amazing odds to come away with some great five figure if not six figure prizes. My team above is in ( with a change) as I wouldnt want someone to copy mine and have us both win!  I have ten entries in the contest.  Again for those of you that play games like pick 4 where the payback percentage is 50% or 35% after taxes you are playing an unbeatable and impossible game. Daily fantasy sports is a game of skill but also a game where a stroke of luck can pay you many times what you deserve.

                      If you are so inclined checkout   dailyfantasywinnings.com to enter the Sunday Million contest. Let me know if you need help constructing a lineup.  I get so excited on Saturday nights. Lets crush this!